Nov 13 2006

House Reps Gambled – And Lost

Published by at 10:41 am under All General Discussions

The pivot point in the last election was immigration. Actually, make that the break point. My assumptions on the outcome of the election resided in the belief the voters in the middle had not given up on the insufferable right wing of the Republican party. Obviously my tolerance is higher than the average independent voter, because I was still supporting the Reps when most of the middle voted for conservative Dems are stayed home. The point is, the House Reps believed they could ram down the nation’s gullet the idea that a penalty of paying back taxes and losing all the time spent working in America as now irrelevant to gaining citizenship was not a sufficient penalty (remember all those calls for ‘amnesty’?) for making a living in the US.
Well, the gambled on that and lost. Here are two articles for the far right to digest. First is from Michael Barone and it outlines how Bush will now ignore the minority party in the House so that he can get his agenda accomplished.

On immigration, House Democrats and a solid Senate majority favor the Bush approach blocked by House Republicans.

In the process, Bush is decoupling himself from the Republican Party. House Republicans, with little chance to affect outcomes, will be mostly ignored, as House Democrats were under Clinton.

Senate Republicans, with the leverage of filibuster threats, will be brought into the loop. But congressional Republicans will be on their own in setting a course for 2008.

Finally we will get comprehensive immigration reform and that is the best result of this election. And every cry of amnesty simply means more time in the oblivion of the minority party for the Reps. So I strongly, strongly suggest people realize this issue is over and the only thing left to do is demonstrate how to lose and win properly. The Reps need to get over this so their other issues (national defense, right to life, low taxes).

The second is from an organization called Family Security Matters. I am not endorsing them or everything in this article – except one thing. As we look forward to 2008 we must keep in mind that independent voters decide elections, and neither party represents an overwhelming choice to us in the middle. Idealogues on both ends of the spectrum diss those of us in the middle to prop up their image of infallabilty. Party’s tend to dismiss the independents once they have done the job of electing them. For the Reps, the 40 years spent in the minority translated into about 12 years of respect to the independents in the governing coalition. But not after that – the last 2 years of Rep control was a purity test. It really is time for whichever party wants to govern to stop dismissing and ridiculing the voters are in the middle. They are not muddled, incompetent, uninformed or moderate. They just don’t buy the party positions hook, line and sinker – and they demand people from either side to make a good case instead of measuring their purity. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next few months in terms of professional courtesy and respect returning to the equation.

25 responses so far

25 Responses to “House Reps Gambled – And Lost”

  1. stevevvs says:

    The last thing I wrote yestedrday was: OFF TO WORK, thank you for your time. I look today, all kinds of acusations and question. Bogus Facts? Really? From todays news:
    Moderate ‘Blue Dog’ Democrats
    Look to Have Their Day in
    New Congress
    Newhouse News Service, by Chuck McCutcheon Original Article
    Posted By: Engraved-on-His-hands – 11/14/2006 12:20:02 AM Post Reply
    WASHINGTON — Blue Dogs are slobbering for a chance to drive the debate in Congress. That’s Blue Dog as in Blue Dog Democrats, a coalition of moderate-to-conservative House Democrats that many observers expect will play a more prominent role over the next two years, especially on fiscal matters. The group added nine members in Tuesday’s elections, bringing its ranks to around 44.

    ‘Road to Nowhere’ will likely dead-end
    November 13, 2006

    The long-controversial “Road to Nowhere,” a dead end in the eastern portion of the Great Smoky Mountains National Park, appears to be another political fatality of the congressional elections.
    The road’s only remaining champion in Congress, U.S. Rep. Charles Taylor, R-N.C., was sacked Tuesday by Democrat Heath Shuler, a former quarterback of the University of Tennessee and the NFL.

    Shuler said late last week that he opposes the road and instead favors the $52 million cash settlement proposal made years ago by his boyhood home county, Swain, in western North Carolina.

    “I knew the road issue was dead when Heath got elected,” the Swain County Commission’s chairman, Glenn Jones, said. “I knew he wasn’t going to push for the road anymore. He said during the campaign he was going to work for the cash settlement.”

    The politics of immigration reform

    This piece by Tamar Jacoby about the role of the illegal immigration issue in last week’s election is sub-titled “the immigration issue didn’t work.” And it is true that the “hawkish” stance of House Republicans didn’t save the party (or some of the hawks) from defeat. But then, neither did the tax issue or the national security issue or pro-life positions (fortunately, no one is arguing that Republicans should start supporting tax increases or repeal of the Patriot Act or abortion on demand). Going positive (Anne Northup) didn’t work. Going negative (George Allen) didn’t work. Nothing worked except being very popular to start out with and then not making gaffes.

    But did it hurt to be a hard-liner? I don’t think so. One certainly can make the case that it may have hurt Randy Graf and J.D. Hayworth in Arizona. But, as Jacoby says, Graf came off not just as tough on illegal immigration but as fanatical, and neither his party nor the incumbent Republican he defeated in the primary supported him. HE GOT NO MONEY, HONEY! It’s tough to win under these circumstances. Moreover, Jacoby concedes that one or two struggling Republicans may have ridden the immigration issue to victory. She doesn’t identify these Republicans, but I’ve heard it said that Rep. Roskam in Illinois got a boost from the issue in his tough campaign against Tammy Duckworth. In San Diego, Rep. Bilbray pushed the issue hard and won his seat (one that Dems initially had hoped to gain) quite comfortably. And in Minnesota, I understand that Michelle Bachman, though not making a huge issue out of it, backed the House Republican position and won by the about usual margin (Mark Kennedy had represented the district until this year) in a brutal year for state Republicans. (John and Scott will correct me if I’m wrong here).

    So what should Republican office holders take away from this? I think they should vote their convictions which, naturally, I hope are similar to mine. My conviction is that amnesty, paths to citizenship, or whatever should receive no consideration unless/until we prove that we can prevent illegals from entering entering the country.

    Election Update: Arizona Congressional District 5

    What’s going on?

    Here are some simple facts you may not know about the ballot counting process currently underway in Maricopa County.

    This is not a recount.

    The ballots outstanding, estimated to be about 258,000 on election night and now about 222,000 as of Thursday evening have not yet been counted.

    The breakout of the uncounted ballots after Election Day were as follows:

    217,000 early ballots
    37,000 provisional ballots
    1,300 conditional provisional ballots

    Early ballots are being counted first, so the result of the 35,329 ballots that were added to the unofficial results on Thursday evening can be subtracted from the original uncounted early ballot total. There are now about 181,500 early ballots that still need to be counted.

    How does this impact the Fifth Congressional District race?

    On the Thursday prior to Election Day, we know that about 100,000 early ballots had been requested and more than 60,000 of them had been cast. We know that the request and return rates were heavily weighted to voters registered as Republicans.

    Early ballots collected via mail at the Elections office on Friday, Saturday, Monday and Tuesday (Election Day) are not included in those numbers, but it is estimated to be about 12,000 additional ballots in our Congressional District.

    Early ballots can also be walked into the polls. It is unknown how many of these were walked in. Based on anecdotal evidence we would estimate around 5,000 in our District.

    There have been approximately 13,000 early ballots that are now included in the unofficial totals. That would leave a very conservative estimate of about 64,000 early ballots that remain to be counted in CD5.

    Provisional Ballots
    There are a number of ways provisional ballots are cast, the most common are:
    An address that does not correspond between your valid Arizona identification and your voter registration information.
    Requesting an early ballot, but voting at the polls. (Interesting note here: Congressman Hayworth’s vote is included in this portion of the uncounted votes.)
    Voting at a poll location other than your own.

    County officials say that historically about 80% of provisional ballots are valid and ultimately added to the vote totals. Based on the interest and tenor of the CD5 race and the demographic makeup of the District, it would be a conservative estimate to say that about one-third of the provisionals were cast in CD5. That would give us more than 12,000, of which about 11,000 will likely be counted.

    The Conditional Provisional ballots were cast by individuals who could not produce a valid Arizona ID or other proof of residency. It is unknown how many of these will apply to CD5 or how many of the people will show up at a voting center to prove their ID by the deadline of Wednesday Nov. 15 at 5 pm.

    With all of that, here is what it all means.

    We conservatively estimate that there are 75,000 votes still to be counted in CD5 with much of that heavily weighted toward registered Republicans, and the total that remains to be counted could be considerably higher.

    So, we continue to advocate that each legally cast ballot must be legally counted.

    On another note, our campaign and the Republican Party put on an amazing effort to get out the vote in CD5. We heartily congratulate our volunteers for the incredible amount of time and energy you donated to our campaign and the efforts to advance a strong, common sense agenda. Thank you.

    Tell me again, what were my BOGUS FACTS?

    You say you study this issue. Fine. Tell us, what books have you read on this?

    When I go to work, I no longer can get on the net, therefore, I also can not respond to you. Got to go for now, things to do.

  2. AJStrata says:


    Glad you are still here. The bogus fact was claiming illegal immigrants voted in the elections in NC. That was the hyperventilating I was talking about. But like I said – moot point. The Fence-Only crowd are now, thankfully, irrelevant. They played their hand and lost.

    Now we will get comprehensive immigrationbill (with penalties and no amnesty to immediate citizenship) and the far right has put themselves out of the picture. No recount will change these facts. None.

  3. stevevvs says:

    Sadly, you are wrong. Illegals have, are, and will continue to vote in N.C. Elections. Our daytime radio host has had dozens of guests on on this topic. You realy aught to research this. What books have you read?
    Now, on to the questions from yesterday presented by you.
    What in the world makes you think I have not studied this issue?
    Answer: You did not know Ilegals are voting in this Country. You did not know Dems were running to the right on Reps. You did not aknowledge reading any books, and on and on. Next question:

    how did the suicidal position on immigration (with all your false facts and hyperventilating) make the current result better? I don’t deal in False Facts. See above.

    A law can have a penalty like paying back taxes and a registration fee and be well balanced to the infraction. It doesn’t have to be more than that to be legal and reasonable. Let’s just say my tolerance for a righty coming here and imlying I am not for law and order after this election is really, really low. It is that kind of hysterics that brought the dems into power.
    Well, you don’t seem to support the laws as they are written now. So, I’d say the shoe fits, wouldn’t you?

    And I do not need to be told what to think by Rush – he doesn’t even like the concept of a family. The idea of sacrificing all he has amassed for children is something he outright rejects. He says so regularly. So why would I listen to someone like that for my views – which I am more than capable of developing on my own. I suggest you rethink what happened. Because a lot of us non-aligned voters are not moderates at all, and are very serious and passionate and will throw down any useless argument whether it comes from left or right.
    True, Rush wants no children. Nore do I.
    I listen to Rush because HE AGREES WITH ME, not the other way around. By the time he is on the Air, I’ve already sent out to others to read what he covers. Unless I’m telapathic, I’d say he agrees with me.I developed my opinions on my own, with a lot of influence from my Grandparents. The finest people I ever knew. By the time I found Rush, I was who I am today.
    No Aligned voters, not moderate, what then are you?

    Now we will get comprehensive immigrationbill (with penalties and no amnesty to immediate citizenship) and the far right has put themselves out of the picture. No recount will change these facts. None.

    Yes, we get the bill you wish to get. We shall see what it has or does not have. Neither of us know whats in it yet, but to think the Dems wont get them voting by 08, like Clinton did in 96, is a bit of a gamble to me, we shall see.

    My sister lives in Henderson, N.C., a suburb of Ashville. The Taylor/ Shuler district. I was kept informed of that race by her, who I think, should know. She too, listens to Rush, for the same reasons I do, he agrees with HER.

    I send friends a daily Invasion News that I go thru 7 days a week. If you study this issue everyday it really helps understand the issue from every angle.
    Thanks for your time once again. I think I answered all your questions. I have far more studing to do on many topics before work, so I will close now. I wont be back today. Enjoy your day. You have a great Blog that I enjoy reading. We just have differing views on this issue.

  4. stevevvs says:

    Another Pro Enforcement/ Fence candidate wins!
    Rep. Reichert looking forward to two more years in Congress


    WASHINGTON — Dave Reichert says he’s looking forward to two more years in Congress.

    With 90 percent of the vote counted, he says the trend favors him. He would be surprised if the remaining ballots tipped the race to his opponent, Democrat Darcy Burner. There are about 20,000 ballots remaining to be counted in King County and nine-thousand in Pierce County.

    Reichert has a lead of about five-thousand votes. An analysis by The Associated Press shows Reichert is the winner.

    He told KONG-TV that some of his goals are protecting the border with Canada, reducing illegal immigration and making the state sales tax deductible from the federal income tax.

    Reichert gave Burner credit for running and her great effort. He said he was surprised at how “nasty” the race got.

    Burner has called a news conference this morning (at eleven) in Bellevue.

    The Reps. did not loose on this issue. The Dems ran people to the right of them on Immigration in many races. They lost on EARMARKS, SPENDING, CORRUPTION, IRAQ etc. Really got to go, busy cooking.

  5. stevevvs says:

    Still wondering what books you’ve read on this subject.