Oct 19 2006

Michigan Senate Coming Into Play

Published by at 10:37 am under 2006 Elections,All General Discussions

Trend lines in polls are the only thing worth watching in October. In the Michigan Senate race check out RCP and Stabenow’s drop from +22 in Sep to +4 today and you will see a classic trend that does not bode well for the Dems. I did a rolling three poll average from Sept to now, leaving the last average as a two poll average. Basically this entailed taking three polls, getting an average, then dropping the loldest and adding the next and getting a new average. Range ran from and early and steady 13-14 point lead until the last few polls, were there then a big drop off to 7-9 point lead, and then finally the 4 point poll just out.

Right now I seem the losing NJ and/or MD. The Dems are out of gas (cash) and their groung game is still weak. This trend, if it continues would be their worst nightmare and possibly the momentum killer for their voters. Forget the absolute numbers, watch for a change in trend, the rate of change, and the direction of the change.

4 responses so far

4 Responses to “Michigan Senate Coming Into Play”

  1. Barbara says:

    Maybe people are finally waking up to the danger we are in. We can only hope.

  2. For Enforcement says:

    But we’re still gonna have to withstand the onslaught of “BAD” news for Republicans every day from now throught the election.
    Every day a “MAJOR” story to disillusion us will be in the news and the Dems will get only encouraging news. Now the Dems(even tho the evidence is contrary) have put even more Repub seats into play, up to 58 now. “” Well, Gosh, I guess being a Repub, I’ll just have to stay home.”” After all wouldn’t it be better to have the Dems running things than to go on like we are?
    What do we want them to change?
    Lets see….. ah, here it is.
    1. Stock Market, record highs, well lets change that.
    2. unemployment 4.6% ah yes, too many people working, gotta change that, get more on welfare and unemployment.
    3.Slow progress in Iraq? ah yes, gotta change that, we need to give up and make NO progress.
    4. Lower taxes. Can’t have that, raise them taxes, give them Dems more of our money so they can distribute it to the unemployed and foreigners.
    4 Bush tells lies. Oh yea, let’s go back to that pillar of truth, bill Clinton.
    5 School grades going up. Can’t have them people getting educated, they may figure out the Dems.
    6.Trying to improve Soc Security. Can’t have that, it’s going broke now, gotta speed that up some.
    7. Deficit cut in half this year. Too much, need to spend more.

    Get the message of the Dems? Where are we going and why are we in a handbasket?
    Remove all doubt….. elect Dems and you won’t have to go there, you’ll be there.

  3. az redneck says:

    well said, E.

  4. wiley says:

    I sure hope you’re right, but … the dems have much more money than you think because of the 527s (Soros, etc.), so there will be plenty of dem/anti-repub advertising down the stretch. Plus, the dems will be lawyered up to the max, ready to challenge all the close races, where they might have some success because of dem state govts & liberal courts.