Sep 23 2006

Bin Laden Dead?

Published by at 10:33 am under All General Discussions,Bin Laden/GWOT

Update: It seems clear now the intel that is solid is that saying Bin Laden is ill. What is tragic about all this is now Bin Laden knows his hideout is not so hidden. His security is right now trying to find out how the Saudis knew he was sick (if he is sick). If Bin Laden recovers and is able to move to another secure location, we will have a leaker to thank for tipping off Bin Laden to our intelligence abiltiies. These leaks to the media, like those in the US, are crippling our intelligence and therefore our anti-terrorism defenses. [Sorry folks, linked to the wrong article the first time]

Update: More here from CBS with many sources, including some has-been CIA agents who are just trying to show off for the press:

“You should never say ‘never,’ but the source of the intelligence is not a very good one – Saudi intelligence can sometimes be an oxymoron,” Michael Scheuer, who ran the CIA’s bin Laden unit, said on the Saturday Early Show. “It almost sounds like between the French and the Saudis are trying to goad bin Laden into saying something to prove he is still alive.”

Scheuer was the man who never caught Bin Laden (with a lot of help from a fickled Clinton Administration) and really should keep his mouth shut. If it was an attempt to get Bin Laden to raise his head his big mouth has killed that idea.

Update: Check out Ace’s coverage on the liberal madness taking hold on these rumours – it is stunning. The worst is ‘the war is over’ meme.

– End Update

Update: Sources are now confirming to Time the same story the Saudi’s passed to France:

Fugitive Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, believed to be on the run in rugged terrain in the Afghan-Pakistani border region since the September 11 attacks five years ago, has become seriously ill and may have already died, a Saudi source tells TIME, echoing earlier reports in the French media.

The source, speaking on condition of anonymity, says that Saudi officials have received multiple credible reports over the last several weeks that Bin Laden has been suffering from a water-borne illness. The source believes that there is a “high probability” that Bin Laden has already died from the disease, but stressed that Saudi officials have thus far received no concrete evidence of Bin Laden’s death.

This is not a rumor,” says the source. “He is very ill. He got a water-related sickness and it could be terminal.

Now this is something! It is clear Bin Laden has been very ill. The question is has he succumbed yet. This story is now more real and more interesting.

– End Update

Update: BTW, does anyone else feel it is odd that the Pakistan denial is “no other country has provided us information” on an event that supposedly happened in their country? The denial does not say they (Pakistan) have no information. It says no one has told them yet. Also, there were a lot of hints in the last couple of weeks by Musharraf that his government may know where Bin Laden is. Maybe they are just trying to find and ID the body? Is that why there was a truce with Waziristan recently? Check for updates at the end of this post, and the comments as well.

– End Update

The rumour/news seems to be coming out of French Intel that Bin Laden may have died last month in Pakistan of Typhoid

The French defense ministry on Saturday called for an internal investigation of the leak of an intelligence document that raises the possibility that Osama bin Laden may have died of typhoid in Pakistan a month ago but said the report of the death remained unverified.

“The information defused this morning by the l’Est Republicain newspaper concerning the possible death of Osama bin Laden cannot be confirmed,” a Defense Ministry statement said.

The daily newspaper for the Lorraine region in eastern France printed what it described as a confidential document from the French foreign intelligence service DGSE citing an uncorroborated report from Saudi secret services that the leader of the al Qaeda terror network had died.

Well, we do know someone very important died last month because roughly 100 Taliban were seen at a funeral and the news media here was all up in arms we could not attack such a cluster of the enemy. So I can see how there are indications in the direction that maybe Bin Laden did pass away – in hiding. I would have preferred a public execution, but if the great Muslim Warrior died hiding in a cave then that might be a fitting end to the mad man’s life.

Addendum: More here on the date of the death, making it unlikely it was the funeral seen by the Predator UAV. More here on the Saudi source for the informatin. Pakistan and the US cannot confirm the report either. So we wait and see.

Update: More updates here at the Washington Post. Seems the Saudi’s are trying to confirm their own reporting (which is normal). And the remoteness of the area in which Bin Laden is said to have been at the time he may have died makes sense that the news of his death may not have been well known.

The newspaper said that, according to the document, the remoteness of the area where the alleged illness occurred would have made any medical treatment impossible. The report said Saudi officials were awaiting further confirmation, particularly the exact place of bin Laden’s burial, before announcing his death.

Bin Laden, who was born in Saudi Arabia, is generally believed to be hiding in the remote tribal areas along both sides of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, where he has used the rugged terrain and sympathetic locals to evade capture.

The same remoteness that makes medical attention impossible to reach makes it possible to control the news out. But the leaking of this news is only going to make matters worse. Now intelligence efforts will have to sift through mountains of information regarding the leaked news to see if they can find any information on the actual events. This is why leaking is not good for anyone except those trying to make money from the news itself. There may be some gems of data waiting in the queue to be translated, but now they have been hidden under an avalanche of speculation around the leak. I hope the news is correct. The lack of ‘chatter’ would lead one to assume it is not correct. But Bin Laden has been well hidden for five years now, so it is not unreasonable to assume the same control on his whereabouts could be exercised on his demise.

25 responses so far

25 Responses to “Bin Laden Dead?”

  1. MerlinOS2 says:

    OBL’s number 2 man is a doctor, it would be unlikely that senior AQ players would be running around playing typhus roulette.

  2. Bin Laden Dead?…

    Seems to be a possibility. US isn’t confirming, but then again this originated with the French. I’ve got calls out to contacts now but it’s the weekend. Ace of Spades is on it.
    At this time I’ll give it about 80/20 odds tha…

  3. DubiousD says:

    What I’m interested to see is whether those critics who blame Bush for rising gasoline prices, Abu Ghraib, Katrina, global warming, and just about every other plague of locusts that has swept the nation over the past six years will begrudge the President any credit if Bin Laden dies tomorrow of an otherwise treatable illness while cowering in a cold, damp Pakistani cave somewhere hiding from Coalition forces.

    Or will Bush’s befabled god-like powers expire at the stroke of midnight?

  4. Bbungle says:

    It would have been a good thing to take out the funeral. If in fact, it was his.

  5. Giselle says:

    Hey Osama,
    It’s Giselle Belle Bourgeois. About time you got word from this fictional character eh? Hang in there. They aren’t after you. Every body knows its the United States Secret Service who blew up the trade centers and not AL-Quaeda. Just want you to know how much I love you and hope you never get caught. I’m tak’n heat. Sorry you got so much shit just cause you wear a turban and had a machine gun. From one ficticious person to another. Love you more than towers and train bull shit. Giselle.