Sep 19 2006

2nd Gallup Poll With Generic Tied

Published by at 7:50 pm under 2006 Elections,All General Discussions

Somethings to note about the polls, which seem conflicted to say the least. There is something going on in the electorate which is slamming the poll models. If you look at the generic Dem-Rep congressional horse race it is all over the place, but heading towards the Reps. The latest poll is tied on this question. The one before that massively for the dems at +12%. The one before that was tied at 45-47. All of these are Gallup polls of one kind or another. If you look across the generic polls at RCP they are all over the map. So why is the generic ballot question tightening and the state-by-states not or moving leftward? There can be a serious lag time before issues resonate into the local races. But my guess is also the pollsters are seeing som much dynamic their models are all over the place. Basically, I find it hard to believe the generic ballot and Bush’s approvals would go one direction and ALL the local races go the opposite direction (there will be some races Dems are truly winning no matter what). We shall see, but the dems seem worried and there is now less and less a chance of taking control of the house or sentate – which means now people will weigh whether the want a useless minority senator or roll the dice for a Rep (my guess in NJ and MD).

Some are finding this to be a strange phenomena, but it isn’t. It is just rare to see it in politics where there typically are not massive, slowly moving changes in opinion. These ups and downs are classic examples of a satistical model in transition. If I am right Rasmussen, who has seen Bush’s approval shrink back down should see another jump – this time more permant in nature.

2 responses so far

2 Responses to “2nd Gallup Poll With Generic Tied”

  1. Barbara says:

    I have never paid any attention to polls. These pollers call up people and ask leading questions or ambiguous questions. They don’t even know if these people they talk to are voters or even registered. If the ones being called are like me, they don’t even answer the phone if they don’t recognize the number on the caller id. Besides, I saw a poller on the streets of Washington, DC on tv one time. Th people being questioned didn’t know squat about how the government worked or even who was in office. Some didn’t even know who Dick Cheney is. The other day a pollster called me. I answered because I was expecting a call. She asked how many people lived in my house. I said two. She then asked who had the last birthday. It just so happened my 21 year old grandson had the last birthday. She wanted to talk to him, not me. He knows next to nothing about politics and cares less. This is an example of the mentality of the pollsters. She has called back several times to talk to him and I had the ssatisfaction of telling her he wasn’t home which he rarely is.

  2. Ken says:

    About Moslem “violence” post below:

    Terrye would love to exonerate the US for supporting Saddam
    through most of his rule and giving him anthrax –siding with
    him even after the Kurd violence and the US blamed some on
    Iran at the time which it now fixes on Saddam.

    We non-interventionists on both Right and Left do not have
    the guilt those who support the Empire’s general meddling
    in the Middle East have.

    For Enforcement: Geneva requires the occupying power to
    stabilize and pacify soon after occupying . The US has failed
    for several years and thus is responsible for loss of life and woundings due to political assasinations, personal feuds ,ordinary street crime,rapes,kidnaps for money, inter ethnic violence (Shia-Sunni),you name it, under the rules of the Convention.

    Hareetz has carried several articles on IDF fighters who
    thmeselves accuse their own government of widespread
    war criminality,of forcing them to cluster bomb entire villages
    and bomb randomly. Self-hating Jews I suppose.

    And the most successful single hit by Hezbollah took out
    about 20 Israeli soldiers preparing to go into Lebanon.
    They were stationed at a kibbutz, endangering civilians,
    just as Hezbollah is accused of.