Aug 31 2006
There Will Not Be A Nuclear Iran
There will not be a nuclear armed Iran – count on it. I said it back here and I say it again now. And apparently so is President George Bush:
President Bush said today there “must be consequences” for Iran’s “defiance and delay” in responding to U.N. demands it stop enriching uranium.
…
In a speech to thousands of veterans at the American Legion’s national convention in Salt Lake City, Bush blamed Tehran for aggravating the situation in both Iraq and Lebanon with its material support of extremist groups in both countries. He also accused Iran of denying basic human rights to millions of Iranians.
“We know the depth of suffering that Iran’s sponsorship of terrorists has brought,” Bush said. “And we can imagine how much worse it would be if Iran were allowed to acquire nuclear weapons.”
“There must be consequences and we must not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon,” Bush said. He said the world faces a “grave threat from the radical regime in Iran.”
After 9-11 I travelled to Europe to meet with my UK co-workers and I predicted we, America, would clean up the ME – especially Iraq and Iran. My British friends were shocked and unconvinced (not any more of course). I explained that after 9-11, with our $200B yearly surplus in SS revenues, there is no excuse not spending our treasure in an effort to save American lives. It would be inconceivable to pay off our debts to wealthy US Note holders and not do something about terrorism. I was correct and the logic was inexcapable. A movie I do not like all that much did have one great line in it that applies to these situations, as it does now. I will paraphrase it.
“It is not hard to do the right thing. It can be hard to know what the right thing is to do. But once it is clear what the right thing is, it is impossible not do it.”
As much as we do not want it to happen, as much as we wish the Mad Mullahs and the Prophet President of Iran would wake up from their insanity, there will not be a nuclear armed Iran. And Bush will allow the Reps to lose both houses of Congress if that is what the price we must pay. Because losing elections pails in comparison to the Armeggadon Ahmedinejad wants to unleash on the West. A few retired Rep Pols is nothing compared to millions upon millions of dead people. The logic is still inescapable.
had the same conversation with a french academic in the dining car on the overnight train from paris to venice in early october 02 to celebrate my wife’s 50th. it’s a great birthday gift. you wake up just outside of venice and arrive about 9 am on the birthday. you score big points with this one! but back to the matter at hand. unless iran blantantly provokes us over the next two years nothing will be happening on bush’s watch. if the next president is a clinton iran will get the bomb, if they don’t already have it. the next big shock will be the world not doing anything if their proxies use a small one somewhere in europe. the excuses, at the time, will be uncertainty of where it came from ie–n.korea, pakistan, iran, or one of several russian republics. the “suitcase bomb” theory will be all the rage. the world is in appeasement mode. iran getting a nuke is not enough to rally the troops. immediate proof will be the lack of any meaningful sanctions in the coming months. if you think this sounds unreasonable perhaps a casual reminder would be helpful. just five years after 9-11 over 30% of the american public thinks it may have been an inside job. get your arms around that one!
Patrick,
I agree America and the World is in “hope this goes away while I’m not looking” mode I don’t think that means squat to the current administration. If they have to go down to the Dems – this would be the bullet to take for America and the world.
aj,
i totally agree but with the caveat–we would have to be blatantly provoked–something on the order of 9-11 again. i don’t think iran’s ignoring the UN will be enough.
I hope you are right AJ about this. The stakes of letting an apocalyptic religious fanatic have the ultimate weapon are way too high.
I was talking to a Persian the other day. She said they will get the bomb and then give them to terrorists. She said they will use that on us.
Of course, that is how Iran operates. Under the radar. They have been doing that since 79. Sooner or later they will want to be open about that… so they can take credit for it. But, we already know what they have been doing. We just can not do anything about it. And the Islamic world sees it as them against us already. They see a lot of what they are doing already.
I hope that Wolfowitz didn’t lie about Iraq being important for a strategic point. It does not build my confidence that he first revealed this to Vanity Fair. I hope we have understood the Iranian threat. I really do.
But, I see no indication of this. No proof.
This administration, as history will prove, is the strongest administration this country has ever known.
But, there are many hard calls they have not taken. Many.
This one is extremely hard. Iran is very populous. It is an economic powerhouse. It has Russia and China in its’ pocket. We are still spread thing around the globe. World opinion has been strongly against us for years now. We are spread thin – ish – in Iraq… which is largely a Shiite nation. Where we know Iran has been making a presence. To date… our largest contigent of enemies there have been the Sunnis.
Iran is showing the world today that the US and the whole world are powerless cowards who are willing to lie to themselves and everyone else. They love it. It is in their faces when they tell these lies.
Everybody is aware of this.
I hope you are right. I hope we are willing to do this thing. Maybe, I am overestimating the difficulties and we can simply do a rocket strike no one will bother with.
Otherwise this is our moment. From here, Iran will get the bomb and the issue is bound to go into obscurity. As the years go by, they will build up their arsenal.
What was the name of the movie whose line you just paraphrased?
I liked the similiar phrase from National Treasure a bit better. 😉 That one also just happened to be a paraphrase from the Constitution.
Danking – honestly I cannot remember. It had Ben Kingsley and Alec Baldwin in it.
On quote source:
Thank goodness. Preliminary googling brough up, at best, Spike Lee’s film.
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&q=%E2%80%9CIt+is+not+hard+to+do+the+right+thing.%22
It is from “the Confession”, from “Harry Fertig”, played by Ben Kingsley.
Plot summary:
“A High powered NY litigator, hired to defend a murderer who avenged his young son’s death, struggles with his own desires for success versus the moral wishes of his client to choose the path of truth.”
I would guess, still, it ultimately comes from the Constitution.
The Iranian Threat…
That anyone in the west can deny what Iran is doing is unconscionable. One can say we ought to negotiate, one can say we ought try to appease the mullahs somehow, but no one can say that their aims are not to build a nuclear weapon and to use it on I…..
I wish I was as confident as you. One problem is Bush is only president for 2 more years, and we could be overestimating the timeline. If a Dem is next pres (or whoever), will they have the fortitude to make the tough but right decisions? before it’s too late?
The best hope is for meaningful sanctions and isolation, which could (eventually) spark an overthow of the mullahs. Iran’s economy is actually not very good. The state is flush with oil money, but private sector is hurting. The govt is subsidizing business & services with the oil revenues — if oil pricess were to drop significantly, it would have major consequences. I believe Eurpoe will (mostly) be with us, but the keys seem to be China, Russia & India. China & India are voracious for their oil, so somehow we have to get leverage or incentives for them to side with us when the chips are down, and same with Russia.
Of course we have the military option if sanctions/economics don’t get the results. It would certainly help if Iraq becomes stable with a working govt, and if Europe wakes up or sees the wizard for some courage to help us out.
Wiley:
China, Russia, and India. Who will be the next superpower when we fall. India remembers how we have sided with Pakistan over the years (and those are the conservative, anti-Islamist Indians, not the Left there)… China is, well, still Communist. And very selfish and isolated… and Russia is… Russia. Much like China. All of them could have the delusion of bringing down America to bring themselves up.
Russia and India both have their own Islamist problems. But they can tell themselves it isn’t with Shiites or Iran.
The Chinese seem to view the struggle we are having with Islamists as a good chance for them to be aggressive in their underhanded manner against us.
Any of these nations can be jealous of our position in the world… and see their own elevation by our own falling.
Any kind of sanctions we may be able to muster, I think will be a slap on the wrist, a joke to the Iranians. Just as they have seen the entire diplomatic process until now. Just as Hitler saw his talks with the European powers before Czechoslovakia.
And the military options are equally grim… if not moreso. Something that will be needed to be done, but which we likely won’t be willing to do. Even with the very strong Bush administration.
Danking – honestly I cannot remember. It had Ben Kingsley and Alec Baldwin in it.
Not sure myself but could it be “The Confession”?
Sorry Pull , posted before I saw your comment
A booklet entitled “Al-Jihad†(holy war) was found in the possession of Hezbollah operatives during the latest conflict in Lebanon and is most likely being used by other terrorists preparing for the next attack against us.
The booklet, presents the Islamic teachings of Khamenei, an ideology based on jihad and shahada…
Be sure to read it in The Terrorist’s Nightmare blog and post your comments here.