Nov 04 2016

Colorado Early Voting 11_04_16: Dem Voter Turnout Dropping

The source of this data his here.

As we go into the final weekend before election day, we have some very interesting numbers in the Colorado Early Voting tallies. The Dems had jumped out to a big lead as a percentage of votes cast in the beginning. But they have been slowly dropping off as both GOP and “Other” voters ramp up. Note: The “Other” voters are dominated by Independents (a.k.a Unaffiliated).

In Colorado the registration by party this year stands at:

  • 32% Dem
  • 32% GOP
  • 36% Other (of which 34.5% are Independents, the rest 3rd Party)

With that as background, lets look at how the turnout is actually doing. The first chart shows the cumulative number of votes by party: (Note: Colorado does not report results over the weekend, so Excel added the days “29-Oct” and “30-Oct” to the graphs and interpolated the lines to bridge the weekend – which is why they run flat during that period).

CO Early Vote By Party 11_04

As of yesterday, the Dems have a razor thin edge of 14,181 more votes cast than the GOP. But this is out of over a million votes total, so when we translated this into percentage of the total vote it is a statistical tie:

  • 35.7% Dem
  • 35.3% GOP
  • 29.0% Other

Notice that the Dems and GOP are performing well above their registration percentages. That indicates there is no ground game edge for Clinton over Trump. The Indies are the ones who are under peforming their registration numbers – so far.

But what really is interesting is the trend since Oct 27th, when I started tracking the results (early voting in Colorado began on Oct 24th):

CO Early Vote Percent Party 11_04

Notice how both the GOP and “Other” voters are slowly but steadily gaining ground as a percentage of the overall vote. The GOP has gone from 34.7% in the beginning to 35.3% as of yesterday.  A very consistent pace throughout.

But the Dems have been losing ground pretty much the whole time. They started with a 39.3% of the total votes

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, but this has dwindled down to 35.7% today. And looks like they will continue to drop through until election day.

The “Other” voters have actually seen the greatest increase in votes cast, going from 25.1% back on Oct 27th to 29% today. This is the group that may surge forward at the end here.

If Trump leads among independents, he will win Colorado.

These results are being reported today (in fact 3 hours prior to me writing this post):

The early-voting lead for Colorado Democrats has all-but disappeared just four days before Election Day.

Registered Republicans again Thursday narrowed the gap between the number of ballots they have submitted so far and the number of votes submitted by Democrats.

4 responses so far

4 Responses to “Colorado Early Voting 11_04_16: Dem Voter Turnout Dropping”

  1. […] Of course, there is a lot of gray “toss-up” out there still.  But two states I have been watching (FL and CO) in terms of early voting ballots seem to show the polls are tilted a bit towards Clinton and these are not toss ups. Probably because those notoriously complicated turnout models are out of sync with what is happening on the ground. See here for my latest on Florida, and see here for my latest on Colorado. […]

  2. MarkN says:

    The difference is now 6,565. 35.7% vs, 35.3%

  3. A_Nonny_Mouse says:

    I’m in Colorado.

    I’m waiting till the last minute to turn my ballot in.

    Guess you could call me a paranoid Right-Wing NutCase, but I don’t want the DemProgg’s to know before the polls close just how many counterbalancing votes they need to manufacture. (Although Colorado’s Sec of State SWEARS there is no way that “Oh, we found two more boxes of ballots in the trunk of Orville’s car” could happen here, it *HAS* happened elsewhere.)

    I really-really-REALLY want to go back to manually-counted paper ballots and Iraq’s indelible-purple-ink-fingerprint system.

    (And, PS – Colorado is one of the Stupid States whose “leadership” has been persuaded that aiding-and-abetting illegal aliens by granting them drivers licenses is a Wonderfully Compassionate and Caring thing to do. Barf.)

  4. […] in Florida (and Colorado) the edge in party turnout is not […]