Jul 17 2006

Is Iran Bucking Up Syria?

Published by at 11:58 am under All General Discussions,Hezbollah

Iran sent its Foreign Minister to Syria to discuss the situation in Lebanon. Hezbollah is getting pummeled and I am sure they are looking for support and help from the closest ally – Syria. And I would guess Syria is in no mood to be seen aiding the terrorists in Lebanon striking into Israel in fear they will be pulled into this conflict. Any supply chains leading to Southern Lebanon (through the Bekka Valley no doubt) would be fair game all the way back to their origin. I wonder if Iran was telling Assad to get back into this and help their minions on Israel’s northern border? Assad may be buckling. And if he does not supply Hezbollah forces they cannot sustain this effort for many more days.

Monsters and Critics has an enlightening review of regional views on the conflict, and it seems to be sinking in that Hamas and Hezbollah made a tactical error and are not getting the result they may have expected.

The anti-Syrian daily suggested the Shiite Hezbollah organization did not seem to have expected such a massive Israeli response to its capture of two Israeli soldiers. But, it added, Israel took the kidnapping of the soldiers as an opportunity to achieve three objectives: To free the Israeli soldiers, to disarm Hezbollah and stop its rocket attacks against Israel. ‘Lebanon does not see it is in its interest for the south to remain indefinitely submissive to the actions, reactions and instability, and to always pay a heavy price for every war, without a deep-rooted solution,’ it stressed.

The paper, which describes itself as independent, said the battle was now being carried out to achieve Israeli and international objectives, supported by the Arab regimes. It said the world powers are now looking at the Middle East as ‘being in one basket,’ and where the West is seeing Hezbollah and Hamas as the ‘obstacles to the peace process.’ In other words, it added, this means Hezbollah`s cross-border operation has opened the door wide for a comprehensive international reassessment of the whole region ‘and we don`t know if this reassessment deserves the huge price Lebanon is paying from Israel`s continuous aggression.’

Needless to say this line of thinking is not what I expected. There seems to be grudging recognition that Hamas and Hezbollah are hurting the regions interests and pulling the ME into a conflict the Arab leaders do not want and may just sit out. Interesting.

Update: Seems Syria is being pressured to take on a butt-whooping at the hands of the Israelis:

Bilal’s tough talk is more than bravado, say analysts here. With its limited and outdated military equipment, Syria is likely to come out the loser in a conflict with Israel. But massive public support for Hezbollah would leave it with no option but to hit back, analysts say.

“There’s already huge public pressure to join the fight,” said Marwan Kabalan, a political scientist at Damascus University. “If Syria is attacked and it doesn’t defend itself, the regime will be very shaky inside the country. It will look weak in the eyes of the people.”

Says a well-informed diplomat in Damascus: “The Syrians have been playing it very low key. There’s the usual rhetoric from the usual people, but all the serious signals the regime is sending out say, `Don’t hit us.'”

“We have no interest in escalation,” said George Jabbour, a member of parliament and one-time adviser to the late president, Hafez Assad. “We are trying to calm things down.”

The Syrian air force has been on high alert since Wednesday but soldiers have not moved from their regular positions, said magazine owner, Waddah Abed Rabbo, who has links with Bashar’s entourage.

Yes, it does seem the Iranians need a firmer backbone from Syria, which is holding its military in its bases and not preparing for war. This does make sense. First Israel will purge Lebanon of Hezbollah, and then the US will put pressure on Assad to boot them out of Syria and pushing them back to Iran where there is at least some chance for containment. The region needs to be cleansed and that seems to be what is happening while the prime Arab states sit this one out. It should be noted that the Iranians are Persian, not Arab. And there is a good case to be made the Arabs are sick and tired of the Persians getting them killed.

4 responses so far

4 Responses to “Is Iran Bucking Up Syria?”

  1. Carol_Herman says:

    Let’s see. If I had to guess. Assad WON’T disclose his cards to the FM from iran. Why should he? He can sound as gong-ho as the lunatic from iran needs to hear. But it won’t amount to a bucket of spit.

    There are no syrian jets in the air.

    And, the ONLY reason Assad breathes … is the same one you can see was applied in 1948. To Japan. Where the “Chrysanthamum Thone sitter” was not killed. Instead, Truman talked to him. Told him after Heroshima and Nagasaki, that Tokyo was next. And, he got the “king-on-the-throne” to sign onto CAPITULATION.


    You never want to kill the king if your side sees benefits to his survival. And, more than once, Israel stayed DC’s hands. Because a dead Assad has no replacement. Other than stuff going from where it is. TO worse.

    Iran would love it if we killed Assad. Which is another way of putting the same fact, forward.

    Leaders get to greet foreign statesmen in pants? All of the time!

    Right now, france sent in DeVile-A-pin, to “see what the french can do” in lebanon. Well? They can use those white flags for snot rags, for all I care. Since hezbollah’s chief is now up by the lebanese/syrian border CONTROLLED BY DRUG LORDS.

    Want my opinion? Drug lords never risk their business end.

    And, Nasrallah either knew how to get to “safe passage” out of the mess he created in Lebanon. OR? He ran there because all his other choices died on the vine.

    In a drug lord culture, wearing a black hat doesn’t do ya much good. Ya might as well send in the Pope. In a dress. Because in them, thar, parts … what talks is the illegal transfer of products; where you can bank on the proceeds going to Switzerland.

    Nope. I’m not impressed. But there is a really, really good piece up at Meryl Yourish’s site. Where she puts up this story from Trappenwitz. Sure. Worth the read. And, STEADY AS SHE GOES. FULL SPEED AHEAD. Israel really is taking care of world business. Though, when this is over, the druggies will still get supplied.

    A difficult lesson

    When I was in the Navy, I once witnessed a bar fight in downtown Olongapo (Philippines) that still haunts my dreams. The fight was between a big oafish Marine and a rather soft-spoken, medium sized Latino sailor from my ship.

    All evening the Marine had been trying to pick a fight with one of us and had finally set his sights on this diminutive shipmate of mine… figuring him for a safe target. When my friend refused to be goaded into a fight the Marine sucker punched him from behind on the side of the head so hard that blood instantly started to pour from this poor man’s mutilated ear.

    Everyone present was horrified and was prepared to absolutely murder this Marine, but my shipmate quickly turned on him and began to single-handedly back him towards a corner with a series of stinging jabs and upper cuts that gave more than a hint to a youth spent boxing in a small gym in the Bronx.

    Each punch opened a cut on the Marine’s startled face and by the time he had been backed completely into the corner he was blubbering for someone to stop the fight. He invoked his split lips and chipped teeth as reasons to stop the fight. He begged us to stop the fight because he could barely see through the river of blood that was pouring out of his split and swollen brows.

    Nobody moved. Not one person.

    The only sound in the bar was the sickening staccato sound of this sailor’s lightning fast fists making contact with new areas of the Marine’s head. The only sound I have heard since that was remotely similar was from the first Rocky film when Sylvester Stallone was punching sides of beef in the meat locker.

    Finally the Marine’s pleading turned to screams…. a high, almost womanly shriek. And still the punches continued relentlessly.

    Several people in the bar took a few tentative steps as though they wanted to try to break it up at that point, but hands reached out from the crowd and held them tight. I’m not ashamed to say that mine were two of the hands that held someone back.

    You see, in between each blow the sailor had begun chanting a soft cadence: “Say [punch] you [punch] give [punch] up [punch]… say [punch] you [punch]were [punch] wrong [punch]”.

    He had been repeating it to the Marine almost from the start but we only became aware of it when the typical barroom cheers had died down and we began to be sickened by the sight and sound of the carnage.

    This Marine stood there shrieking in the corner of the bar trying futilely to block the carefully timed punches that were cutting his head to tatters… right down to the skull in places. But he refused to say that he gave up… or that he was wrong.

    Even in the delirium of his beating he believed in his heart that someone would stop the fight before he had to admit defeat. I’m sure this strategy had served him well in the past and had allowed him to continue on his career as a barroom bully.

    Finally, in a wail of agony the Marine shrieked “I give up”, and we gently backed the sailor away from him.

    I’m sure you can guess why I have shared this story today.

    I’m not particularly proud to have been witness to such a bloody spectacle, and the sound of that Marine’s woman-like shrieks will haunt me to my grave. But I learned something that evening that Israel had better learn for itself if it is to finally be rid of at least one of its tormentors:

    This is one time an Arab aggressor must be allowed to be beaten so badly that every civilized nation will stand in horror, wanting desperately to step in and stop the carnage… but knowing that the fight will only truly be over when one side gives up and finally admits defeat.

    Just as every person who had ever rescued that bully from admitting defeat helped create the cowardly brute I saw that evening in the bar, every well-intentioned power that has ever stepped in and negotiated a ceasefire for an Arab aggressor has helped create the monsters we see around us today.

    President Lahoud of Lebanon, a big Hezbollah supporter and a close ally of Syria, has been shrieking non-stop to the UN Security Council for the past two days to get them to force Israel into a cease fire.

    Clearly he has been reading his autographed copy of ‘Military Success for Dummies Arab Despots’ by the late Gamal Abdel Nasser of Egypt. Ever since Nasser accidentally discovered the trick in ’56, every subsequent Arab leader has stuck to his tried and true formula for military success:

    1. Instigate a war.
    2. Once the war is well underway and you are in the process of having your ass handed to you… get a few world powers to force your western opponent into a cease fire.
    3. Whatever you do, don’t surrender or submit to any terms dictated by your enemy. That would ruin everything! All you have to do is wait it out and eventually the world will become sickened at what is being done to your soldiers and civilian population… and will force a truce.
    4. Once a truce has been called you can resume your intransigence (which probably caused the conflict in the first place), and even declare victory as your opponent leaves the field of battle.

    This tactic has never failed. Not once.

    In fact it worked so will for the Egyptians in 1973, that to this day they celebrate the Yom Kippur War – a crushing defeat at the hands of Israel – as a military victory! No kidding… it’s a national holiday over there!

    President Lahoud has already begun to shriek like a school girl to the UN Security Council to “Stop the violence and arrange a cease-fire, and then after that we’ll be ready to discuss all matters.”

    Uh huh. Forgive me if I find that a tad hard to swallow. He allowed Hezbollah to take over his country. He allowed the regular Lebanese army to provide radar targeting data for the Hezbollah missile that struck the Israeli destroyer. He has turned a blind eye while Iranian and Syrian weapons, advisers and money have poured into his country.

    And now that his country is in ruins he wants to call it a draw.

    As much as it may sicken the world to stand by and watch it happen, strong hands need to hold back the weak-hearted and let the fight continue until one side finally admits unambiguous defeat.

  2. crosspatch says:

    It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out what is going on here. Have a look at this article from AP. In particular the first few paragraphs:

    DAMASCUS, Syria — Iran’s foreign minister said Monday that a cease-fire and an exchange of prisoners would be acceptable and fair in the Israeli-Lebanese conflict.

    Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki was speaking after talks with Syrian Vice-President Farouk al-Sharaa.

    “We believe that we should think of an acceptable and fair [deal] to resolve this,” he said. “In fact, there can be a cease-fire followed by a prisoner swap.”

    So here with have the Iranian Foreign Minister, in Damascus who after consultation with the Syrian Vice President sets out terms for an acceptible ceasefire. Iran and Syria setting the ceasefire conditions? Interesting? More interesing that AGAIN Assad is nowhere mentioned to be “in the loop”. The same happened last week in a statement from the Syrian Ba’ath party. Assad was nowhere to be seen and was not mentioned in the party declaration of support for Hezbollah.

    So here Iran and Syria make it crystal clear that they are the masters at the end of the puppet strings and strongly imply that they are the brokers to deal with in negotiating a ceasefire. They just don’t have it through their heads yet that there isn’t ever going to be a prisoner swap.

    I believe Assad is toast and Syria is now for all practical purposes no longer an Iranian ally, they are directly under the control of the Iranians.

  3. crosspatch says:

    Iran bring out the big guns in Lebanon?

    An Israeli airstrike in Lebanon on Monday destroyed at least one long-range Iranian missile capable of hitting Tel Aviv, military officials said.

    The officials said Israeli aircraft targeted a truck carrying the weapons before they could be launched. The force of the blast sent at least one missile flying into the air, but it fell nearby.

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