Oct 22 2016

10_22_16 General Election Polls: Toss Up, Trend Continues For Trump

Published by at 3:39 pm under 2016 Elections,All General Discussions

This is the fifth day I have looked at the general election polls for POTUS at RCP. My previous posts were:

This is basically an uncomplicated assessment of the general election taken each day by averaging the % of the general election polls for each candidate. It is a daily poll-of-polls assessment, and it has been interesting because this data appears to suggest a very different race than the headlines.

For the 5th day the race looks to be a statistical tie or toss up, and today we only have 3 polls (click to enlarge):

POTUS RCP 10_22_16

  • HRC averaging 42%
  • Trump averaging 42.67%
  • Difference 0.67% (Trump)

However, if we look at the trend over these past 5 days we actually can detect a trend towards Trump. He is slowly rising while Hillary has been trending downward or, at best, flat.


Trumps differential has moved over this period from -4.70% behind Clinton to +0.67% Ahead.  He has polled slightly ahead of her for the last three days (basically since the last debate)

If this holds it is very bad for Clinton and the rest of the Political Industrial Complex. This could be why the Clinton-backing “news” media continues to abandon all objectivity and go all Sleaze Guns on Trump.

2 responses so far

2 Responses to “10_22_16 General Election Polls: Toss Up, Trend Continues For Trump”

  1. oneal lane says:

    Hopefully he can continue to inch forward. I recall in 2004 watching Bush’s 9 point lead shrink to within the margin of error in the last couple of weeks.

    To believe the talking heads he has no chance. I do not know what to believe. Are the polls accurate, will undisclosed Trump voters mysteriously show up on election day. (they better be registered to vote)

    I am concerned about his support among those formerly enthused. Anecdotally, I know three guys locally that were the loudest most consistently mouths for Trump. Constantly crowing about what he was going to do etc. Starting about a month ago they never say a word, or when prompted complain that there is no way he can win.

    For me its hard to fathom how anyone other than a hardcore leftist could pull the handle for her, unless of course, you have not been paying attention to the more honest news sources.