Nov 05 2012

AJStrata’s Election Prediction

Published by at 3:57 pm under 2012 Elections,All General Discussions

Major Update: Romney’s internal polls also confirm my predictions:

Mitt Romney is ahead by a single percentage point in Ohio, according to internal polling data provided to MailOnline by a Republican party source.

Internal campaign polling completed last night by campaign pollster Neil Newhouse has Romney three points up in New Hampshire, two points up in Iowa and dead level in Wisconsin and – most startlingly – Pennsylvania.

If the Romney campaign’s internal numbers are correct – and nearly all independent pollsters have come up with a picture much more favourable for Obama – then the former Massachusetts governor will almost certainly be elected 45th U.S. President.

I see no value in the Romney campaign releasing this data except to get a big “We Told You So” come Wednesday. More updates at the end of post. – end update

Never have so few, waited so long, for so little. But after seeing this I am prepared to make my predictions for tomorrow’s presidential election results [click to enlarge]:



If Scott Rasmussen is even close in this result, tomorrow is going to be a really bad day for Democrats (and he has been very good at this before). This is a historical level for GOP partisan ID, and is much higher than seen in the 2010 blow out. 2008 was D+7, so this would mean a 13% swing away from the left in 2012.

As I said before, the 2010 insurgent voting bloc is NOT responding to pollsters and will send a clear, unfiltered message to the Political Industrial Complex tomorrow. We have never seen an R+6 election as far as I know, so this should be something else.

So here are my swing state predictions, based on what is a more likely an R+6 nation (not some D+8, D+9 or D+11 nonsense):

Governor Romney will win:

  • Florida
  • North Carolina
  • Virginia
  • Colorado
  • New Hampshire
  • Ohio
  • Wisconsin
  • Iowa
  • Pennsylvania
  • Nevada

President Obama will win:

  • Michigan
  • Minnesota

Therefore, the EC count will be: 321 Romney, 217 Obama [click to enlarge]

You too can have fun creating your own electoral map at RCP, it’s a blast!

Update: Jim Geraghty has some confirming data that supports many of my picks.

Update: Ed Morrissey also provides a slew of supporting data.

13 responses so far

13 Responses to “AJStrata’s Election Prediction”

  1. oneal lane says:

    That works for me, but for the life of me how can Rassmussen still be turning out an almost dead even over-all poll.

  2. AJStrata says:


    Goes back to what I said weeks ago – insurgent voter is not responding to pollsters. For Rasmussen it means the R’s are just not responding in the same numbers as D’s to the poll. Same with indies. If you are winning a small fraction of the sample it will not change the bottom line.

  3. archtop says:

    I’ll do my part to help make your prediction come true in New Hampshire. State Motto – “Live Free or Die”

  4. AJStrata says:


    LOL – We will do the same in VA!

  5. TomAnon says:

    Looks like my map. I differ in that I figured Ohio would be a loss because, frankly, that was the most likely target going into this election where voter fraud would have the biggest impact. All along Ohio was the place, the firewall, the swingingest of the the swing states. I think the fix is in for Ohio.


  6. Fai Mao says:

    An odd prediction.

    New Jersey falls to Romney


    1. The areas near Newark are the hardest hit by Sandy. Those along with Camden are the true democratic stronghold. The more suburban areas of the state people are more likely to be able to drive a car.

    2. The demoncrats are not paying attention there and so won’t cheat as much.

    3. The Left in New Jersey absolutely hate Chris Christie, when they saw Obama walking with him and Christie saying nice things about Obama it effectively suppressed the democratic vote for Obama.

    4.Conversely it makes it harder for people in NJ to reflexively think that republicans don’t care

    I could be wrong on this, I am wrong about many things at times but I would not be surprised to see NJ go to Romney

  7. AJStrata says:


    You nailed my surprise prediction for tomorrow – the sleeper that awakes.

    NJ is literally dying from the incompetence of this gang of screw ups.

    After Sandy, watch Obama and Dems struggle in NJ and NY, and lose the Senate seat in MA.

  8. Mike M. says:

    God grant that you’re right AJ.

    FWIW, the calls at home (I live in MD, purely fundraising) are so numerous that I don’t answer the phone at all any more. It’s infuriating.

  9. Frogg1 says:

    Obama campaign already playing defense:

    Obama Campaign to Supporters: ‘Please Stay Calm’

    Excerpted from POLITICKER: In a conference call this afternoon, President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign had one central message for their supporters when Election Day arrives tomorrow: They should “keep calm,” even if they hear snippets of information favoring Republican Mitt Romney.

    “My warning, we need to stay calm for much of the day,” Stephanie Cutter, Mr. Obama’s deputy campaign manager, said, touting thousands of early ballots already submitted by voters. “We’ve already banked a pretty big portion of our vote.”

    The fear, she explained, was early numbers leaking before voters have finished going to the polls, creating unnecessary panic and pessimism among Democrats.

    “Keep calm and tweet on,” Ms. Cutter said. “So, no matter what you hear tomorrow about turnout in Republican counties or exit polls, particularly early in the day, please remember and remind your readers that, because of early votes, we’re where we need to be to win….I don’t think there’s going to be official exits until the end of the day, but if things leak out that aren’t validated or weighted, please stay calm.”

  10. patrioticduo says:

    Regarding New Jersey, New York and Connecticut. The storm was bad and conditions are awful for a million or so. But those people are used to the incompetency and barely increase their heart rate when faced with bureaucracy at its worse. They accept the Unions, they accept the inefficiency, they accept the higher costs of doing anything at all and they accept the metastasis. They don’t know where to direct their anger and they have no wider view to help them comprehend true self sufficiency. If there’s anything to see with tomorrow’s election behaviour in those States, it will be that they are as irrelevant as ever. Which annoys me intensely given that I reside in CT. Perhaps I am too jaded about this part of the world these days. I certainly hope the rest of the country gets this election right.

  11. Redteam says:

    AJ, glad to see you’ve changed your opinion from 2 years ago when you persisted that the right wing was killing itself and repubs would never win again. The Tea party is going to make a difference in this election, similar to what we saw then. I will agree that had the Repubs not nominated a moderate,, they likely would not be in the running now. I think the election is essentially over. If Obama was not already dead (politically) Hurricane Sandy killed his last hopes. Sandy also killed the butt kisser, Christie, in NJ. He is, nationally, dead in politics.

  12. […] it’s mine in partnership with AJ Strata over at The Strata-Sphere. I found Rasmussen’s history of party affiliation – all the way back to the 2008 […]