Jan 10 2012

New Hampshire Surprises

Published by at 7:50 pm under 2012 Elections,All General Discussions

Live blogging some of the early returns in the NH primary and there are some surprises (or maybe it is better to say confirmation that the voters are not following the script being spewed by the Political Industrial Complex). I was wondering if NH would up end the conventional wisdom, as Iowa did.

So far the exit polls are simply sunning. In a state that has below average unemployment (~5.5% compared to the national 8.5%) the number one concern among GOP primary voters is the economy. 69% are very concerned with the economy, another 24% slightly. 5% are apparently oblivious.

Also, the number of independents has grown in NH, now larger in number than either party. They represent over 50% of the voters.

With 6% of the vote in Romney has 36%, with Ron Paul on 11% back at 25%.  If you compare the ‘anybody but Romney’ numbers they tally 75% – an amazing number. Will these numbers hold? Way too soon to know since we don’t know which precincts are reporting. But Romney could really take a hit tonight.

7:56 PM Update: Interesting numbers from Concord: 31% Romney, Paul 25%, Hunstman 23% (I think, trying to keep up with CNN. If Mitt drops to 35% I think we can say he is limping out of NH heading into SC.

9:00 PM Update: 33% reporting and Romney’s lead has bounced back to 37% against Paul’s 24%. Speeches given and the nation goes ‘ho hum‘. Something like 97% of the delegates are yet to be won in primaries across the country. Here in VA we only have two candidates – Paul and Romney. I like neither, but I would not be surprised if VA sends Paul to the winner’s circle so no one can win the necessary delegates and we go to a brokered convention.

BTW, it really is time for Perry to bow out now. He is not hurting anything, but there is a time to admit your time will never come.

11 responses so far

11 Responses to “New Hampshire Surprises”

  1. dbostan says:

    The more I see Romney in action, the less I like him.
    God, how tight I would need to hold my nose to vote for him!

  2. Redteam says:

    I think today is Romney’s high point, it’s all downhill from here. likely it’s Newt’s low point, most likely all uphill from here.
    But then, I thought LSU was gonna win last night.

  3. lurker9876 says:

    What was the voter turnout in New Hampshire…in comparison to 2008?

    I see that New Hampshire is doing a write in for Hillary’s name. Won’t fly.

  4. Redteam says:

    “What was the voter turnout in New Hampshire…in comparison to 2008?”

    The problem with that number is, this year no one is voting Dimocrat because no Dimocrats are running so they’re all voting for Romney and Paul in the hopes that one of those will win so Obama will get to face a pushover.

    NH was a waste of time as far as settling anything…

  5. Redteam says:

    I just looked it up: in ’08 287K Dims, 239K Repubs
    this year 195K total. so the turnout is 37% of 2008, that says not many were interested.

  6. Redteam says:

    that was with only 89% of precincts in. so there will be a few more..

  7. WWS says:

    How can this be Romney’s “high point”? Paul and Huntsman are jokes who will fizzle in larger states, and no one else got out of single digits. Newt is done, Santorum is done, Perry is done – the only part Paul and Huntsman are playing is to continue to divert the “protest vote” into ineffectual and mutually exclusive fragments.

    If Romney wins South Carolina and Florida – and it looks like he will – then this race is over. Time to start thinking who Romney should pick as his VP nominee.

    thoughts of a brokered convention are fantasy – won’t happen. I mean come on – does anyone really think Virginia, or any other state, will vote to nominate a man who thinks the US deserved the 9-11 attack? And who thinks our servicemen are vicious oppressors who deserve to be blown up by roadside bombs? Get real. Ron Paul’s vote in N.H. was a result of democrats being able to vote in the GOP primary in the hope of disrupting the race, nothing more.

    for Redteam – the comparison to LSU – Alabama is even better than you may realize. Why did Alabama win? Because they played an absolutely perfect defensive game, one of the best on that side I’ve ever seen. Not that much of an offense; but when your defense is perfect, you don’t need it.

    All the other candidates have had moments of splashy offense, but no defense at all. Which is why they have all been falling to pieces at the first sign of attack. (Herman Cain was like my beloved Baylor – brilliant offense, not even an attempt at defense anywhere along the way) Offense wins games, defense wins championships.

    That’s why Romney is winning this thing, even though no one has wanted to believe that he would. Everyone wants to fall in love with their candidate, but leave that to the democrats; it ain’t gonna happen for our side, so we might as well forget that and get real. What we need to do is to hire an employee to manage our enterprise who will be adequate and not do too much damage, and our time to make a choice is running out.

    Romney For President, 2012 – it’s time to settle.

    (I think I will make that into a bumper sticker)

  8. Mike M. says:

    Paul may be a joke, but he won’t fizzle. He’s the standard-bearer for the libertarian wing of the GOP. The wrong standard-bearer due to being clueless on national security, but the standard-bearer nevertheless. He’ll be pulling >20% of the vote from here out, I suspect closer to >30%.

    I think Huntsman WILL fizzle. He spent all his time in NH hoping for a win. Otherwise, he’s too close to Romney in policy.

    My opinion is that it IS time for Perry to drop out…and either Newt or Santorum should drop out after South Carolina. The first week of February at the latest. This will enable the other to consolidate the not-Romney vote into a force capable of winning, or causing a brokered convention that has a decent possibility of finding a better candidate.

  9. Redteam says:

    Paul is the libertarian for both sides (Dims and Repubs)
    that one candidate that they will consolidate on is likely Newt.

    We can’t afford to allow the Dims and MSM to select the Republican candidate. They are certainly backing the one that is easiest to defeat, (that would be Romney)

  10. WWS says:

    Romney may be the easiest to defeat…

    except for every other announced candidate, who would be even easier. Santorum and his war on contraception? Paul and his war on sanity? Newt has his moments, but hoping that Newt can come through is the same as what Ambrose Bierce wrote about second marriages – the triumph of Hope over Experience.

    Come on – if Romney can beat them in the primaries, Obama would have killed them in the general.

  11. Redteam says:

    Romney is not beating them in the primaries, the Dims are the ones voting for Romney, they sure won’t be there in his corner in the election. Look at the numbers in NH, only 49% of the voters were Repubs in a Republican primary. guess who the other 51% are and who they will be voting for in the Election. Wait til we have a Republican primary where ONLY Republicans can vote. South Carolina is not a good test because the two primaries are on separate days and voters can vote in whichever they want to. with no Dims running, which day do you suppose they will choose to vote?
    I’m just gonna guess that they will not be voting to select the very best opponent for Obama. Repubs seem to be hell bent on letting the dims select their candidate.