Apr 06 2011

WI Election Won’t Be Resolved For Many Weeks

Published by at 10:21 am under All General Discussions

Time to exhale folks. As of now 99+% of the precincts are in, including the Dane County votes (Kloppenburg’s stronghold). It is now a question of absentee ballot GOTV and statistics. Kloppenburg’s lead is 447 votes in the unofficial (and rushed) tallies. The recount will take weeks and the results will shift throughout:

The Government Accountability Board has until May 15 to complete its canvas of the vote. No date has been set for the board to canvas the vote, which is dependent upon when the counties submit their results to GAB.

All 72 counties must begin to canvas the vote no later than 9 a.m. Thursday. The law gives them until 11 days after the election to submit those results to GAB.

Here is how tenuous any result is at the moment. Let’s assume these unofficial tallies have an incredibly good 99.9% accuracy (I doubt it, but it is not impossible with a stringent and well rehearsed process – thus my doubts). That means the vote results will be off by 0.1%. The total votes cast as of now (with some precincts still out) is 1,477,581.

That means the actual tally is +/- 1,478 votes under a 99.9% accuracy in the unofficial tally.

These off year, statewide elections probably will not come close to performing to this level – a level of performance NASA would love in some of its space systems. NASA is happy to see a satellite returning good data 98% of the time it is on orbit. So you can see why this 99.9% level is a very high bar for an activity like and election.

So what would be the margin of error in the unofficial tally if we went with 99% (meaning the results could be off by 1% – a demarcation used by many states to trigger automatic recounts)? The math is easy – the results could swing by +/- 14,776.

So exhale, relax and let’s see what happens.

Update: More votes in, the Kloppenburg’s lead shrinks to 224 votes. 3 precincts left: 2 from Milwaukee and 1 from Jefferson. Could go either way. And that will be plus or minus 1,000 or 10,000 votes, depending on WI election QA processes, procedures, skilled and experienced workers and for rehearsals for these situations. Most elections are undisputed, so being off by 1% means nothing.

Suffice to say I am leaning in the +/- 10,000 vote range.

Update: Milwaukee’s 2 precincts in – no change in the numbers. Now it is only 1 precinct in Jefferson, which is a Prosser stronghold (58-42%)

9 responses so far

9 Responses to “WI Election Won’t Be Resolved For Many Weeks”

  1. lurker9876 says:

    I thought the Prosser team said last night that all absentee votes were already counted prior to the election yesterday?

    Otherwise, how many absentee votes remain to be counted?

    From what I am reading, the unions and democrats are very unhappy that they did not get an overwhelmingly clear and cut victory as they expected. They wasted a lot of money pouring into this election. They now see this as a referendum and that the public unions will go the way the private unions went.

    Now we see the public unions filing a lawsuit against the White house for details on the government shutdown.

    Obama supported unions and now is placed in a box.

    With the budget fights and now this, it’s no wonder Obama’s traveling to two playgrounds today.

  2. Wilbur Post says:

    Car trunks are being filled with “missing” Krappelburg ballots even as we speak..

  3. WWS says:

    Weeks? Kloppenberg declared victory today.

    I’d say it’s a pretty sure bet – the people who were out protesting in Madison are the ones who are counting the votes.

  4. AJStrata says:

    Actually, there are a lot of claims of voter fraud – and plenty of time to expose them and delete Kloppenburg votes.

    Now what do you thin WI will think of a Supreme Court Judge whose campaign ignores voter fraud?

    LOL! Checkmate. Liberals are so damn slow….

  5. lurker9876 says:

    Well, too late for the WI voters, even those that voted against KLOP. If KLOP ends up as the winner after the recount and the litigation of voter fraud (no voter ID in WI), they’re stuck with her for ten years.

    And from what I read, the voter fraud cases are running against KLOP.

    After Al Franken, Rossi, and one race in Texas, I don’t frankly care if we could find more ballots somewhere that would replace KLOP’s lead with Prosser’s.

  6. lurker9876 says:

    Oh my gosh – http://gatewaypundit.rightnetwork.com/2011/04/report-500-votes-found-in-waukesha-county-wisconsin/

    Now the next story will be…”1000 votes founds in Dane county, WI!”

  7. WWS says:

    AJ wrote: “Now what do you think WI will think of a Supreme Court Judge whose campaign ignores voter fraud?”

    50% of the voters will obviously think that is just great and will laugh about it. Because Democrats = Fraud and they do not care.

    Not a single one. (just ask Al Franken)

    You don’t yet get how far gone we really are. The basic institutions of our democracy are breaking down as a bare majority no longer believes in them or respects them.

  8. lurker9876 says:

    WWS, With all that’s going on around the world, we see communists, socialists, etc., ganging up with the Muslims to push the Western values to non-existence. Many Americans continue to deny this.

    It’s scary.

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