May 19 2005

2006 Senate Predicts

Published by at 7:50 pm under 2006 Elections,All General Discussions

It is time for me to put it on the line for 2006 elections. I have been successful since 2000 with pretty good accuracy. I like to get out early since long term trends do more to shape the possible results, on average. The surprises are the individuals in the races and whether they do something to go against the trend (like screw up).

First off, let’s do 2005. Reps will take VA Gov and will give NJ Gov a good run. 50-50 chance they win both. VA is a red state again (barring some late scandal, of course).

2006 Senate reps will be +3. They have too many potential pickups and only one serious risk (PA). State by state predictions below:

(1) MD: long shot, but I can see Steele winning MD for a rep Pickup

(2) FL: It will be hard to unseat Bill Nelson (astronaut and moderate dem), but the state has moved into the R column quite strongly. 50-50 chance for a rep pickup – all depends on the Rep candidate

(3) WV: Byrd will lose and Rep pickup, unless dems pull some last minute court pranks, which still may not save the old byrd. This is my long shot against the CW pick.

(4) MN: My guess is a Rep pickup. Norm Coleman has dispelled the myth about the evil Reps. And Dayton was an unmitigated disaster.

(5) NB: Rep pickup if they get a strong candidate. Ben Nelson is living on borrowed time in a very red state.

(6) NJ: Outside chance for a rep pickup, depends on how the scandals brew there and voters feelings about Ex-Gov McGreevy and his boyfriend running homeland security.

(7) NY: Hillary will win unless Giuliani runs, which is highly doubtful.

(8) PA: best and only chance for a Dem pickup, but incumbents are hard to beat.

(9) TN: Stays red.

(10) TX: stays red.

(11) VA: stays red.

(12) WA: If Dino Rossi runs he should win this state. WA is roiling over the rigged governor’s election, and it is killing the dems. If not him, I still think Reps could get a win because of the election debacle there.

Best case for dems is a PA pickup, hold the line in MD and FL/WV and lose WV/FL, MN and NB for a Rep gain of 2 seats. Moderate best case for reps is they could hold PA, pickup WV, MN and NB, as well as two surprises in MD, FL or WA, for a rep gain of 5. Run the table, add in NJ and a surprise Giuliani run and it gets quite fanciful (+8).

My bet is, when the dust settles, reps will pick up 3 senate seats and continue to push the dems into the liberal margins.

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