Sep 28 2010

How Big Is That Tsunami Heading For November?

Published by at 2:02 pm under 2010 Elections,All General Discussions

I have never seen the like of this year’s election. I knew it would be brutal for the Dems, but how brutal continues to surprise even me. Jonah Goldberg at The Corner noted this PPP set of polling numbers which best summarize this year’s elections in their opinion – and they are jaw-dropping stunners (in reverse order):

The folks who thought the economy had gotten worse who had already decided how to vote in November are going Republican by a 92-8 margin.

So if you think the economy ha gotten worse there is no contest. Not even close. No doubt and no hesitation.

Now, how many people think the economy has gotten worse:

On our last national poll 49% of respondents said the economy had gotten worse since Barack Obama became President.

49% x 92% = 45% voting GOP. If the GOP is taking 20% of the remaining 51% who do not think the economy is worse then the combined GOP vote would be 45% + 10% = 55% GOP! That is a huge and unprecedented margin, and it would easily give the GOP a shot at an 80 seat pick up in the house and control of the Senate. But as PPP notes, that does not even factor in an enthusiasm gap:

Add in the Democrats’ enthusiasm issues and you have the formula for the big GOP victory that’s likely on the way.

Let’s say, instead of the huge 2-1 advantage we have seen in enthusiasm in many polls, we give the GOP side a tiny 10% boost in turnout. That would push the Dem side down to 40% and the GOP up to 60%. I just cannot fathom what an election would look like with those numbers cooked into the mix.

11 responses so far

11 Responses to “How Big Is That Tsunami Heading For November?”

  1. […] about Politics issue #94 September 28, 2010 Politics No Comments How Big Is That Tsunami Heading For November? – 09/28/2010 I have never seen the like of this year’s election. I […]

  2. American public to Democrats:

    It’s the Jobs, Stupid!

  3. Jay032 says:

    It’s almost impossible to say how badly the GOP will beta the Dems in November, but it could be as big as 1920 was for them. I’d love to see a repeat of 1894 on the House side and 1946 on the Senate side, but I don’tt see structurally how that comes to pass.

  4. Fai Mao says:

    I’m still holding out for a 100 seat pickup in the house and 11 to 12 in the Semate

  5. Jay032 says:

    I’d love to see that. It would be just behind the 1894 GOP House sweep and also just behind the 1946 GOP Senate sweep. Although I think such a large gain is possible in the Senate, I really don’t see anything closer to a triple-digit gain in the House. I figure probably between 50 and 70 seats in the lower chamber.

  6. WWS says:

    Fun story of the day – Senate dems are chasing the big dem donors and telling them not to waste their money on the House Dems, since the House is already lost.

    The House Dems aren’t too happy about it.

  7. Fai Mao,

    Right now it still looks like a GOP pick up of 65 (+/-)15 in the House and 9 (+/-)2 in the Senate to me.

    The pattern of GOP outside money media spending I am seeing suggests someone has been doing round of polling in +5 or higher Republican presidential voting seats held by Democratic incumbents in the last couple of weeks to dump money in now.

    This is showing up in the latest trend for Democrats, which is watching rural and working class House seats in the North East go from “safe” to unstable for them.

    There is no “firewall” for Democratic money to save them in the House.

    The Mid-West and Mountain West from Western Pennsylvania to the Nevada border and from Oklahoma to the Canadian border is gone for the Democrats outside heavily urban, majority-minority, or Gentry liberal (university town) House districts.

    The big SEIU outside spending and organizing push seems to be Spanish language political advertising to get out the Hispanic vote to save western Senate seats and a few House seats.

  8. Several of the Democratic House Committee Chairmen are in trouble:

    House Democrats are going to bat for some of their longest-serving members in new advertisements, a recognition that longevity in DC has put veteran committee chairmen in serious danger of losing their seats.

    The DCCC will begin advertising on behalf of Reps. Ike Skelton (D-MO), John Spratt (D-SC) and Paul Kanjorski (D-PA), according to a source briefed on the committee’s plans.

    None of those decisions will surprise political observers. Skelton, who chairs the House Armed Services Committee, and Spratt, who chairs the Budget panel, have been Republican targets virtually from the beginning of the cycle. Kanjorski, who chairs a major Financial Services subcommittee, faced a nail-bitingly close election in 2008 and is running against the same candidate in a much more Republican-friendly environment.

    And the DCCC are giving up on two Arizona House seats and three Ohio Democratic seats from the 2006/2008 election cycles and three rural seats in Oregon, Illinois and Wisconsin.

  9. WWS says:

    For all of this maneuvering about ad buys, I just don’t think that is going to make much of a difference this year. Maybe I’m wrong, but it seems to me that the vast majority of people already have their minds made up as to *how* they’re going to vote. The only big question mark I see left is turnout, and that implies that GOTV efforts are going to be far more efficient uses of money than mass media advertising will be.

    The worrisome part about that is the Dems have traditionally been better at GOTV than the GOP has. Still, the Dems may just be incompetent enough to blow that advantage this year, too.

  10. WWS,

    This is a far more important story than politcal ad buys:

    Trucking Volume Collapses, Falls Most Month To Month Since March 2009

    Gregory White | Sep. 28, 2010, 4:29 PM

    Truck shipping after August is for Christmas retail sales in November and December.

  11. oneal lane says:

    While I believe the GOP will win the house, and some long standing Dem Dinosaurs will fall, I doubt the number of seats will be as large as we are being led to believe. Inner city Democrat voters are hard to poll. Combined with voter fraud and manipulation, the actual results will be less than we would hope for. The echo chamber of the internet is at full volume. Don’t over expect

    Odds are the Senate will remain in the hands of the Dems, though it will be close. Again, don’t over expect

    In any case, sorry to say, Obamacare is safe for the near future. The new crew will make a faint stab and revoking it and Obama will parade some poor souls out for the media who will loose everything if they loose Obamacare, there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth and it will all be over. To revoke Obamacare there needs to be another higher level of political discontent and financial peril. Don’t get your hopes up.

    Do not be fooled, the Democrats knew all of this would happen if the rammed Obamacare through, it was a calculation. They full well knew that they would loose this cycle and perhaps the next, but their baby was born and will live on until they recapture some power, lets say 2016 and 2020.