Sep 23 2010
Is GOP On Track For an 80 Seat Landslide In The House?
The bad news for Dems just keeps on coming. If you look at the RCP House Map today you find the GOP with 206 seats in their lean-strong categories (click to enlarge).
This includes picking up 31 Democrat seats in the ‘leans GOP‘ and ‘likely GOP‘ groupings. As I have watched the polls shift right all year I realize the battle this cycle is not really in the toss up group (today showing a potential to pick up 37 D seats) but is actually raging in the ‘leans Dem‘ turf. When you combine the total number of additional Dem seats in play in these two groups you get 37 +28 = 65 seats in jeopardy.
This means 65 + 31 = 96 Dem seats are on the line right now. Which makes this poll data truly stunning:
We looked at the sample in the 66 Democratic INCUMBENT districts that Charlie Cook lists as either toss-up or leaning Democratic at the time of the survey. In that key crosstab of Swing Democratic Incumbent Seats, the Republican lead grows to 49%-31% on the generic ballot. That is a very powerful crosstab that says the wave is coming.
(H/T Ed Morrissey) RCP has 65, Cook has 66 – so close enough, I will go with RCP’s numbers.
I have been predicting a wipe out since February, but even I was not going to predict an 80+ seat take over by the GOP. But right now it looks very possible. Assuming the GOP loses the 3 seats RCP has listed in the likely Dem or leans Dem categories, then that equates to a possible 62 seat pick up across the toss up and leans Dem races RCP is currently watching.
If the GOP really is holding +18% lead in these districts, I can see the GOP picking up well over 80% of these seats, but let’s tone down our excitement a bit and go with 80%. That equates to a 50 seat pick up for the GOP, on top of the 31 Democrat seats already in the GOP column.
Shazam – an 81 seat pick up! I am truly amazed.
Update: Pew is out with another nail in the coffin of the current Democrat Congress
AJ,
The House looks like 75 (+/- 15) right now and the Senate looks like 9 (+/- 2) to me.
IOW, 60 in the House and seven in the Senate are the floors for Democrats with very little up side out there for them.
concerning a potential Castle write-in campaign: either way, he would suck out so many of Coon’s votes that I’d love to see him try it!
241-194: that has been my prediction for months. However, if it ends up 257-178, or 260-175, I won’t complain.
# WWS
concerning a potential Castle write-in campaign: either way, he would suck out so many of Coons votes that Id love to see him try it!
—
So the election results would end up…
O’Donnell – 34%
Castle – 33%
Coons – 33%
LOL!!
The chance of a Castle write-in campaign is slightly better than 50-50. Coons doesn’t get close to 33% unless the Dems in DE get mad and start to push hard. Coons will get somewhere between 25-30% but could go as low as 20%.
This race is scrambled enough, a write-in campaign would change the dynamic to uncertainty squared.
One thing I do know, I can spell Castle. Now murdolowski, or is it morkulysky. Need help here!!!
Everyone here should be cheering a Castle write-in campaign! If you think Castle will win and he’s better then Coons, then Great! This is his chance to prove it! If you think O’Donnell can eke out a win in a three way race, then it’s also great.
The way the race stands now, there is ONLY upside to this move! Worst that could happen, Coons would win, but since that already looks like what will happen, there’s nothing to lose.
AJ,
The cross tabs you skipped here:
http://pos.org/2010/09/national-survey-highlights-dem-problems-in-key-seats/
Really tell a story below:
——————————————————————————–
Other key findings on the generic ballot:
Regionally, the Republican wins 47%-39% in the South, 47%-35% in the Midwest, and 46%-36% in the West, while trailing 36%-47% in the Northeast. The Midwest is going to be a killing field for Democrats this year — from western PA through to the Plains, Republicans are going to sweep a LOT of Democrats right out of office.
.
The GOPer leads 51%-32% among whites (that’s 61% of the decided white vote). In 1994, GOPers won the white vote 57%-41%. In the nadir year of 2006, Republicans only took 51% of the white vote.
.
African Americans break 8% GOP/86% Dem, so nearly all of the core African American support for Dems is built into this survey already. Only 4% of the undecideds are African American, compared to 78% being white (leaving Hispanics as a key group).
.
There is a 17 point gender gap — GOPers lead 49%-35% among men, and trail 40%-43% among women.
.
The real GOP problem with women comes among women with college degrees — we trail 33%-52%, while leading 45%-36% among women without degrees. Men with college degrees break 53%-32%, so presumably there are going to be a large number of households where votes get cancelled out.
.
White women vote GOP 45%-35%, which is not as strong as white men (57%-28%). However, this underscores that Democrats in swing seats with a low percentage of minorities are in HUGE trouble.
.
Suburban and rural voters are both going GOP by double digits – suburban by a 48%-36% margin and rural voters break 51%-30%.
.
In the states Obama won with less than 54% of the vote, the generic is breaking 48% GOP/34% Dem. Those states are Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, Minnesota, Indiana, and New Hampshire — where, not coincidentally, there are a lot of targeted House races (including many that have just bubbled up to target lists in the last few months as voters seek to punish the party in power).
——————————————————————————–
Voter participation rates are usually set in young adulthood or by a major element of the public having their vital interests offended by the political class. (See California’s anti-illegal immigrant proposition.)
This election cycle — with a bad economy and Obamacare– we have both.
The voter participation rate for this generation’s young college educated women is set to tube due to disillusionment with Obama — due to bad economic times — and that is going to have long lasting implications for Democrats, even in their their minority-majority house district bantustans.
The majority of the minority college educated women are in the African-American and Hispanic communities and they go for government jobs as a “Double advantaged” female minority.
Those government jobs will be disappearing due to a lack of tax revenue over the next 4 years in huge numbers.
In addition, the unstated implications of the numbers above is that White male voters in the private sector are starting to vote for Republicans at percentages approaching that of African-Americans for Democrats.
Predominently white rural areas will go all Republican over the next 2-to-3 election cycles.
Republicans are also set to clean house in state and local elections. Gubernatorial races, state legislative races, in addition to national races will see EPIC Democrat defeat.
The Democrats have raided the taxpayer and the taxpayers are sick of it.
Pssstttt.
Don’t tell the repubics that because they may get complacent and blow it…
[…] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Suhr Mesa and AJ Strata, Free To Prosper. Free To Prosper said: Is GOP On Track For an 80 Seat Landslide In The House? http://bit.ly/b5Ft4d :: Strata-sphere […]
I’m not complacent, I’m pro-active. My hubby and I are finding candidates to support and sending contributions directly to them. We tried for years to tell the RNC that they were letting us down and they didn’t listen. So we’ll help directly.
This is the most important election in my lifetime and hopefully it will make a difference in my grandchildren’s future.
I’m still holding out for a 100 seat turn around in the house
# WWS
“Everyone here should be cheering a Castle write-in campaign!”
I agree with your analysis WWS, and wonder if maybe this was their strategery all along…hmmm…. :^)
The hidden issue here is voter fraud.
What happens if some places, maybe many places end up with 110% of registered voters voting democratic or 98% of all early ballots are democratic and in the same handwriting?
How do republicans deal with the Banana Republic levels of voter fraud that is coming. Democrats burned down the warehouse where the voting machines were stored in Houston last week so that the city has to go back to paper ballots which are more easily
They also have been registering ghost and phantoms again:
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/local-tea-party-group-may-have-uncovered-massive-vote-fraud-in-texas-103823128.html
In places You can probably expect the Black Panthers to be out with their clubs again. This is going to be an ugly election
http://maps.google.com/intl/en_us/2010election/ratings.html
Yes it is Google doing it but you can view the projections of several high ranked organizations that give their election views.
Not unlike the elections, governing after next January will be a three way split between democrat, elite republican and the rest of us.
The eletes will not give up control easily.
[…] again, governing against the will of the people has consequences. Though the Obami aren’t of this world where actions have consequences–it’s not […]
Notice that California 11 is in the “toss up” category. That is HUGE. District 11 borders a town you might have heard of … Berkeley.
Harmer is currently polling in a statistical tie with his opponent. This has always been considered a “safe” liberal seat.
If you can spare a couple of bucks:
http://www.harmerforcongress.com/default.htm
Thanks for the post Merlin. I had not realized communists had infiltrated so much of Utah and Idaho, I knew poor Colorado, Washington and Oregon were hardcore left. Leftist’s in the U.S. love the “mountains”. I guess they can pretend they are living in the Alps.
I think the situation is more dire out there than we think. There are just too many lefitsts and weak knee moderates and Rinos. We must all come to grips with the fact that the political will never be there to repeal Obamacare, it certainly will not be repealed by the incoming crowd of Republicans. The Democrats knew this when they went for the big one earlier this year. It was a calculation. They were willing to lose this cycle and perhaps the next to get their cherished programl. Yes, rah rah Tea party and all that stuff, but if current history in the U.S holds to form, social security, medicare, Bushcare…. Obamacare is here to stay. No I don’t like it either. But future battles will be over how government healthcare is run, as in Europe, not over its elimination.
It gets better
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/A-GOP-unknown-is-in-striking-range-of-Barney-Frank-1063388-104114343.html