Jul 07 2010

A West-By-Golly “I Told You So!

Published by at 3:40 pm under All General Discussions

Last week I predicted there would be a special election in the fall for the late Robert Byrd’s seat and it would make a GOP take over of the Senate all but certain. I predicted this because if there wasn’t there would be no more Democrat party in West-By-Golly Virginia.

Looks like my prediction is coming true, at least for the special election happening:

West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin voiced support for holding a special election this year to fill the late Sen. Robert Byrd’s seat, announcing that he would request a legal opinion from the state attorney general to determine if a vote could be held.

Manchin, a Democrat who said he would be “highly” interested in running for the seat himself, expressed discomfort with Secretary of State Natalie Tennant’s ruling that the governor should name a placeholder to the seat until it comes up for election in 2012.

There are lots of theories out there, but the fact is the anti-DC wave is very high already in the rural and suburban areas of the country. The last bastions of democrat strength are the megalopolis cities along both coasts. Right now 9 senate seats are toss ups, most of them long time Democrat incumbents. From CA and WA to WI and IL to PA and NJ, Dems are having trouble hitting the 45% polling mark.  Four seats are already confirmed lost.  When WV is added to the list taking the senate in a tsunami election becomes very easy indeed.

19 responses so far

19 Responses to “A West-By-Golly “I Told You So!“”

  1. oneal lane says:


    I hope you are right. And I am hoping it’s not too late to “Change it Back!” I am not sure a veto proof Congress is possible, but it would be nice.


  2. oneal lane says:

    It will be too late for the fall elections, but just wait until folks start getting the bill for Obamacare on their next W-2.

  3. […] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Free To Prosper, AJ Strata. AJ Strata said: new: A West-By-Golly "<i>I Told You So!</i>" http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/13715 […]

  4. lurker9876 says:

    I read today that Nancy Pelosi is trying to tell her democratic candidates to run their campaign on obamacare because the polls on obamacare are on the uptick.

  5. Mike M. says:

    Not sure I agree, AJ. I just don’t see ten vulnerable seats (remember, a 50/50 tie is divided by Biden).

  6. AJStrata says:

    Mike M.

    Givens are AR, DE, ND, IN.

    Easy pickings in my opinion: PA, NV, MO, IL, CO.

    That gets us to 8-9.

    FL, OH will go in a wave, That’s 10-11

    I think WA, WI, & CA are also in play.

    Add WV and you have a huge margin to play with (+4-5).

    If the tsunami is as big as I think it could be – no problem

  7. I’ve taken my two comments I made to your previous post and packed them into a new post of my own ( “the bottom line” ) in which I confess to repeating myself. (So?!! ) )

    About the only thing I added in there was…

    I’ve been seeing, in a few comments here and there, utter despair of ever getting enough Republicans to have a “veto-proof” congress. Well, just how would you define that? You could have 61 Republicans and fail to override a veto because a few voted with the enemy. Conversely, you could have less than 60 and succeed because a few Democrats weren’t too happy with the situation. In fact, if there become enough Republicans to even pass legislation that Obama would veto, that last possibility greatly increases.

    Don’t forget that our very country was seen, by some at the time, as a doomed enterprise from the start; I mean, “Really! Taking on the premier military power of the time?!! Come on, now!”

    So, DON’T defeat yourselves before you even start. If all you can envision is futility and hopelessness, please go somewhere else to psych yourself down. The rest of us have a lot of work to do, and it damned well wont be accomplished by those who believe it impossible in the first place.

    Damn! By telling this much, no one really has any reason to drop in and read it for themselves. 🙁

  8. WWS says:

    Good point, Paul. Also recall that this Senate election is theoretically one of the toughest for Republicans, in that this is a replay of the 2004 Senate race which was the last good one for the GOP. In 2012, when the winners of 2006 must stand for election the Reps will be in much stronger shape, since Dem wave of 2006 will not be repeated. Same for 2014. So *if* the GOP can stick to their principles and not self destruct, this should be just the first of 3 very good Senate election cycles for them.

    Also remember the other huge impact of this election – Zero year elections are always more important than all of the others, because that is when all the local legislatures which will draw the new congressional boundaries are elected. The shape of the House is going to be determined for the next 10 years by this election. (and the census results, of course) For example, no matter who wins it this fall, Murtha’s old district will almost certainly be erased by 2012 since both Pennsylvania and Michigan are going to lose seats while Republican Texas gains 2.

    This effect doesn’t touch the Senate, of course, but it’s going to lead to about a +10 shift in the House for the GOP in 2012 based on demographics alone.

    Overall, this is just the first step in a 6 year building process. Of course, the votes mean nothing unless a viable financial program is the goal. That’s been the dem’s huge failure, and it was also the failure of Tom Foley’s congress. That’s a mistake that we cannot afford to repeat.

  9. lurker9876 says:

    Since you mentioned the zero year elections, we heard Wayne Christian speak about the redistriction of Texas. He says that we are just four votes away from the tipping point from a Republican majority to a Democratic majority in this state. Joe Straus, voted as speaker of the House with the help of about 61 Democratic votes, isn’t helping the Republicans at all. He has been secretly meeting with the state Democrats on developing the new plans for redistricting our state.

    For those that live in Texas should do some serious research on Joe Straus and work to vote him out completely. A friend of mine who lives out west in Texas supports Joe only because of his position on gambling. He doesn’t care about the rest of his ideology. Joe’s family owns several race tracks.

    Wayne also says that he is surrounded by five districts that voted for state Demcorats but went red for McCain in 2008. He used this as an example of why people do not understand why local government can be more important than the federal government.

    I am struggling with the importance of local government versus federal government as far as practicality of the process is concerned. I understand the theory behind it but not the practice of the theory.

  10. lurker9876 says:

    You mentioned Tom Foley…you mean Tom DeLay?

  11. WWS says:

    Thank you, Tom Foley was of course a Democratic Speaker of the House who lost his seat in the 1994 landslide. (Wishing again for that edit function!) Mark Foley (unrelated) was the Republican who had to resign while Denny Hastert was speaker, and I blame Hastert more than anyone else for setting the tone of corruption for the GOP at the time. I actually met him once at a campaign stop, and I was not impressed – he was just an old wrestling coach who’d been dropped on his head a few too many times, imho.

    Tom Delay became the big bugbear for Democrats, but I always felt (and still feel) that he was credited with far more influence than he had. His specialty was simply redistricting and campaing financing, and actually all he did was mount a Republican version of the exact same work that Martin Frost (D – Dallas) had done 10 years earlier. Democrats hate it when their own tools are turned against them.

    Btw, the political/legal case against Tom Delay is *Still* in legal limbo, 5 years after it was filed! Ronnie Earle, the original prosecutor, has long since retired and his successor seems to have no interest in pursuing it. On the other hand, she fears it might hurt her vote numbers with her democrat base if she just drops the case, so she just lets it float. The appeals courts seem also to have no interest in either getting rid of it or resolving it – they keep kicking it back and forth on minor technical points, and each time it gets bounced it seems to sit in a drawer for at least a year before they decide it’s time to bounce the hot potato to someone else.

    As I said, that’s been going on for 5 years now. Delay’s lawyer says he *might* finally get a trial by this fall, which he and Delay want – but that could just as easily be put off for another year or more while everyone tries to find a way to put the blame for this case ever having been brought on someone else.

    One reason I think it has gone on so long is that Delay managed to severely irritate a bunch of back home Republicans (like Rick Perry) with his lack of style and lack of deference to them, and they were secretly quite happy to see his political career neutered. So they’ve done nothing to help him out.

  12. lurker9876 says:

    Interesting, WWS! You are far more familiar with the political history than I. As I was growing up and starting my career, I paid no attention to politics.

    I understand from my receptionist that she and her family grew up with Tom DeLay. Her brother is a very good friend with Tom. She also says that Tom is a strong, devout Christian. I guess Tom had to use his style, right or wrong, to make the difficult mountains move. But I don’t think that the trade approach, like the Lousiana Purchase, will work again in the future as the Americans are souring on these backroom deals.

    You emphasize on the ten year cycle with redistricting and mentioned the “six-year plan”. I have to think…hhhmmm…the Congressional Republicans have only six years or less to prove themselves to us that they can stick to the conservative principles.

    Almost immediately after the Republicans gain back the majority, the Democrats will be ready to pounce on the Republicans for their “mistakes”, corruption, and so on. The congressional Republicans had better prepare themselves to have very few secrets in their closets, defend their Republican friends and the Republican US President, defend the wars, fight the mainstream media, and so on. Or they will lose like Bush did.

  13. daniel ortega says:

    So AJ,

    What is this NASA thing, where a primary aim of NASA
    is to make islamists feel good about themselves?

    I guess that could mean helping islamist states put an EMP weapon in orbit.

    But it does seem really really bonkers.

    I guess you might not be able to answer that.

    It must be extremely frustrating.

  14. crosspatch says:

    There aren’t enough Democrat Senate seats up for election this year for there to be a “tsunami”. It will take a combined result of this year AND 2012. Most of the seats up for election in 2012 are Democrats.

  15. Laddy says:

    I guess I don’t see how WV is a tossup if Manchin runs. Isn’t his approval in the 70s?

  16. crosspatch says:

    Yes, the guy has very high approval numbers. But it will be interesting to see how he stacks up against an opponent. Now is the time for the Republicans to pull their very best candidate out of the drawer.

  17. AJStrata says:

    Caputo will also run – and will win.

  18. Laddy says:

    I believe it’s Capito, not Caputo. Close though. 🙂 Insiders are saying she isn’t going to run as she would likely have to give up her increasing power in the House when the Rs take over and that going up against Manchin would require more money than she could raise and that defeat would still be likely because of Manchin’s popularity. Manchin will not run defending Obama. Whether she could nationalize her race as voting against the Dem agenda is the issue. Look at the other WV Senator. WV only votes for Rs for President, it seems. Don’t get me wrong. It would be great if she could run and grab he seat. It just doesn’t seem very likely, especially if Manchin hammers his own Dems on cap ‘n trade, EPA coal regs, etc.

  19. AJStrata says:

    Laddy, you are correct, Capito.

    Well, if you run against the Dems you make the case for an R. I agree, my friends in WV seem to be stuck in the D’s. Rasmussen has a poll out showing Manchin way ahead of Capito – for now.