May 17 2010

My May 18th, 2010 Election Predictions

Published by at 6:28 pm under 2010 Elections,All General Discussions

So tomorrow (or today depending on when you read this) there will be primary elections in many states and one key special election in PA-12 to replace the late John Murtha. My predictions are below for PA-12, the PA Dem Senate Primary and the AR Dem Senate primary. Underlying all these predictions is the fact that most pollsters have no way to fully anticipate the intensity of the voters tomorrow given the unique anti-DC fever we are seeing this year, there is no historic voting data to extrapolate from with confidence (statistically speaking). That means most pollsters are underestimating the shellacking some of these democrats are going to take tomorrow.

It is well known that the intensity is up on the pro GOP side, that those groups who turn out for off year primary and special elections (seniors, etc) have drifted away from the Dems in heated opposition to their failed liberal policies, and that independents are also rising in opposition to Obama’s policies. For examnple, Obama’s support in key battleground states (and therefore districts) is horrible right now:

In Florida, the president’s net approval rating is -1.7; in Colorado, it’s -6.5; North Carolina, -2.7; Ohio, -7.8; Nevada, -5.0; and Pennsylvania, it’s -3.0.

All of this trends to some more historic and ground shaking losses for Dems, in line with what the nation saw in the 2009 VA & NJ governor races, and the MA special election earlier this year to fill the late Ted Kennedy’s seat.

While the polls show a tight race in PA-12, I predict GOP candidate Burns is going to win big, by at least 5% and maybe even 10%. His democrat opponents is the epitome of the entrenched DC liberal elitists. So while the district is heavily democrat in party registration and the GOP has not won there since the 1930’s, this year PA-12 will be the democrat loss felt across the nation. It will show that the rising tide of opposition is broad and deep. So deep 100 Democrat House seats and maybe up to 10 Democrat senate seats could be in play. PA-12 should prove that the Scott Brown win in MA is not a fluke, but a harbinger of political destruction for the Democrats.

I also see Senator Specter losing tomorrow. He is not really a Democrat but another one of those entrenched DC relics who should have retired long ago. Sestak will win, paving the way for the Dems losing the PA Senate seat in November.

I actually think Blanche Lincoln will survive for her drubbing in the November general elections. AR is not very liberal, which is why her far left opponent has no prayer of winning. I think AR will hedge its bets and keep Lincoln on the ballot for November, just in case and to so the voters can send her party a message about going too far left.

So there you have it. Burns will pull a Scott Brown in PA-12, Specter’s will lose and Lincoln will survive. And given my track record of late all this means nothing!

Addendum: It looks like a Rand Paul win in KY, but I bet his win will be smaller than expected. Sort of a ‘ho hum’ in my opinion.

6 responses so far

6 Responses to “My May 18th, 2010 Election Predictions”

  1. […] This post was mentioned on Twitter by AJ Strata. AJ Strata said: new: My May 18th, 2010 Election Predictions […]

  2. Wilbur Post says:

    Burn baby, burn!

  3. WWS says:

    I didn’t start off thinking too highly of Rand Paul, but everything I’ve seen indicates that he has run a far better campaign than his opponent. Also, he was attacked for not supporting a response to 9/11 (linking him to some Ron Paul comments) but he made a very strong and credible response and neutralized the issue.

  4. dbostan says:

    Why not try something new in Rand?
    Where did the check pants repubics bring us?

  5. MarkN says:

    AJ, your election predictions remind me of Rocky and Bullwinkle. And you’re Bullwinkle always trying to pull a rabbit out of the hat and never succeeding. AJ your predictions never work, however, this time you might just pull the squirrel out of the hat.

    Burns has a good chance to win today. There are two things working against him: 1) The Specter-Sestak race and 2) PA is a closed primary. All the Dems get Dem ballots. After a long ballot with only Dems on it, the special election will be at the end and then they will have to switch to vote for Burns. If the election was in late April Burns would have won by 10 points.

    Specter is toast. Rand Paul will win by 10 points 55-45. The undecideds will break for Grayson but Paul has a big enough lead to prevail.

    Lincoln will need a runoff. There is just enough cranks in AR to keep her under 50%. I would be shocked if Halter won more than 50% today. But??????

  6. Terrye says:


    Well, for one thing, Paul is anti war and anti Patriot Act. He is not a conservative so much as a libertarian. So if the time comes that he votes with the Democrats on national security issues, then will the conservatives call him a RINO? And I think his talk of shutting down the Federal Reserve is going nowhere.

    The socalled check pants Repubs would be a lot better than a Democrat.