Jan 20 2010

Will Democrats Heed The MA Wake Up Call?

Published by at 8:24 am under 2010 Elections,All General Discussions

America is a centrist nation. It some areas it leans center left and in others center right. In strange pockets knitted together by gerrymandering there are instances of far right and far left cults. But these are false images of America – as we just saw in Massachusetts yesterday. America has a comfort zone and it has fringes. For too long the fringes have been pushing us into policy areas we as a people will reject.

I like what Democrat Senator Evan Bayhe said yesterday, before the full extent of the damage the ‘national’ liberals in DC had done in Massachusetts was clear in the results:

Even before the votes are counted, Senator Evan Bayh is warning fellow Democrats that ignoring the lessons of the Massachusetts Senate race will “lead to even further catastrophe” for their party.

“There’s going to be a tendency on the part of our people to be in denial about all this,” Bayh told ABC News, but “if you lose Massachusetts and that’s not a wake-up call, there’s no hope of waking up.”

For Senator Bayh the lesson is that the party pushed an agenda that is too far to the left, alienating moderate and independent voters.

“It’s why moderates and independents even in a state as Democratic as Massachusetts just aren’t buying our message,” he said.

Will the mad Dems in DC wake up? Or will they put the peddle to the metal and provide us more historic elections in the fall? It’s their choice and I would be more than happy to see more cleaning house in DC.

It is amazing how many opportunities there now are for ‘Change’. If you go over to Charlie Cook’s state of the senate page he has 12 senate seats listed as toss ups:

  1. New Hampshire (R) – open due to Gregg retirement
  2. Connectictu (D) – open due to Dodd retirement
  3. Massachusetts (D) – enough said
  4. Delaware (D) – open due to Biden moving to VP
  5. Illinois (D) – open due to Obama moving to POTUS
  6. Pennsylvania (D) – Arlen Specter
  7. Ohio (R) – open due to Voinovich retirement
  8. Kentucky (R) – open due to Bunning retirement
  9. Missouri (R) – open due to Bond retirement
  10. Arkansas (D) – Blanche Lincoln
  11. Colorado (D) – Michael Bennet
  12. Nevada (D) – Sen Leader Harry Reid.

And that is not all. One of the most interesting polls to come out last week was a Rasmussen poll showing CA Sen Barbara Boxer (D) in trouble in her race (which Cook has as a ‘leans’ Dem right now). In a couple of match ups Boxer is in a statistical tie. More importantly, she is now well below 50%. She should be in the toss up list.

Boxer’s CA is an economic basket case. It has all the makings of another perfect storm of local frustration combined with national frustration – and an independent minded electorate which had been in the Democrats’ fold, but is also known to have elected some damn famous Republicans (Nixon, Reagan).

I personally think the CA seat is in a lot of trouble for Dems. The unemployment in that state is horrific. And to make matters worse, DC has dictated an entire farming community be destroyed because of some small irrelevant fish. I am all for bio diversity, but a rare species which cannot genetically mix or survive is not worth the lives of thousands of people thrown out of work.

Cook lists one other ‘lean’ race in Louisiana. But if Rasmussen’s poll there is accurate that rising tide of anger that just washed over Massachusetts has lifted Senator Vitter to safer, higher ground.

That means the Dems are at risk of losing 9 Senate seats if they do not wake up, and that would put the GOP within one Independent Senator of taking the Senate back.

As for the House I expect to see a wave of retirements, since Rasmussen’s measurement of the wave there is already enough to drown pink, purple and light blue distracts alike (+8% GOP).

The GOP could blow this opportunity by going back to what got the ousted in 2006 and 2008. Every one of the winners in 2009/2010 for the GOP have been moderate conservatives. The one attempt in NY-23 to push too far in the opposite direction was a disaster.

Independents decide elections folks, and they rose up in anger in Massachusetts. It is never a good idea to insult them and brow beat them and then expect them to vote for you. Everyone who wants to join in a winning, governing coalition needs to check their attitude in the dust bin. No more “RINO” or any other derisive comments about people who disagree with you. No more flaming moderates like Charles Johnson (because he is a reminder of the vile that can be directed at any American by zealots run amok). Try to stay classy and respectful. If you fail to sell your point of view, that is not the fault of others.

No one is going to be impressed by someone who claims to believe in America and its Constitution, but insults and derides others for speaking their views openly – as is our right in America under our constitution. Clinton and his crude, rude duds (yes, that spelling is deliberate – and I am speaking of Begala and Carville) brought crass, trash-talk to the honorable debate of politics. That was yesterday and needs to be fixed. Trash talk is an insult to the voters one way or the other.

We need people like Brown, Cristie and McDonnell who speak positively and with respect to lead this nation forward. Leave the trash talkers to MSNBC and the failed liberals – that’s THEIR speed. Not America’s.

30 responses so far

30 Responses to “Will Democrats Heed The MA Wake Up Call?”

  1. Mike M. says:

    AJ, I think you nicked it, but didn’t hit clean.

    The big lessons that I see are:

    1. Fight ideology, not party. This is particularly true for Republicans – the Democrats have a massive fault line between the center-left and the radicals.

    2. Today’s axis of debate is no longer the classic liberal/conservative divide, but libertarian/totalitarian. Americans like libertarian.

    3. There is a BIG populist trend. If you are seen as part of the inside-the-Beltway crowd, or a hereditary office-holder, you are toast.

    4. THE line of the year, and the theme of the 2010 election, was Scott Brown’s line, “It’s the people’s seat.”

    5. Competence counts – a lot. To a large degree, this was the downfall of the Bush administration. And it is a major weakness of the Obama administration, too.

  2. ama055131 says:

    A.J. Great post. As a Reagan Democrat I want to debate issues regarding the benefits of making the United States the greatest country in the world, all the social issues we can discuss in a civil and rational matter.

  3. ivehadit says:

    AJ, when I hear Scott Brown speak I do not hear a moderate. I hear a conservative: strong militarily, low taxes, less government.
    What is moderate about this?

  4. Neo says:

    Last night over at MSDNC, Maddow and Kos took this election outcome as a sign that Democrats must now pass HCR even if it means “reconciliation”
    Let’s see … Republican running as 41th vote against HCR in “bluest” state wins .. it’s a sign the “blue” team must pass HCR by all means necessary. This level of political tone deafness is unbelievable. Talk about dense. Massachusetts voters weren’t mad because there is no health care reform bill or Republican obstructionism.
    Massachusetts already has a rough equivalent of ObamaCare with 98% coverage. They were mad because the party in power had lost it’s mind and was on a spending spree that will damage our country for decades to come. Congress was writing checks that the taxpayers couldn’t and now wouldn’t pay. Let’s hope Congress learns that every problem doesn’t demand a solution from Washington, and just because you can doesn’t mean you should.
    Meanwhile, the economy lays there .. like a greasy meatball.
    Perhaps there are Democrats who want to complete their “lemmings” death march as they kamikaze their way into the history books. Let’s hope it’s less than 50% of the Congress.

  5. kathie says:

    I found this at WIZBANGBLOG.COM
    Read it, it tells the story of a center right President, who I think was a great man of tremendous insight, strong when we needed him to be, kind when we needed kindness as well.

    Ex-John Kerry aid: “President Bush deserves our respect, not our betrayal”
    Posted by Rick
    Published: January 20, 2010 – 6:18 AM

  6. lurker9876 says:

    Mike and I’vehadit, good posts and spot on.

    There is absolutely NOTHING superior nor pure about the first principles.

    Funny how limited government, low taxes, strong military, proponents of free markets, and protector of rights == conservative and first principles.

    Now what’s the definition of conserve?

  7. Mike M. says:

    To go OT to the other Big Story, the following has some interesting points about Haiti aid. In particular, why DOD is about the only part of the Federal Government involved…as well as some problems with that.

    http://blog.usni.org/2010/01/19/haiti-update-tuesday-jan-19th/#comments

  8. WWS says:

    The current Health bill is dead! It really is dead!!!

    I was hesitant to let myself believe this, I have been sure that they would find some way to try and ram it through anyways.

    But read this – this is from Barney Frank. Barney frakkin’ Frank!!!!

    The following was read on MSNBC by Rachel Maddow:

    “I have two reactions to the election in Massachusetts. One, I am disappointed. Two, I feel strongly that the Democratic majority in Congress must respect the process and make no effort to bypass the electoral results. If Martha Coakley had won, I believe we could have worked out a reasonable compromise between the House and Senate health care bills. But since Scott Brown has won and the Republicans now have 41 votes in the Senate, that approach is no longer appropriate. I am hopeful that some Republican Senators will be willing to discuss a revised version of health care reform because I do not think that the country would be well-served by the health care status quo. But our respect for democratic procedures must rule out any effort to pass a health care bill as if the Massachusetts election had not happened. Going forward, I hope there will be a serious effort to change the Senate rule which means that 59 votes are not enough to pass major legislation, but those are the rules by which the health care bill was considered, and it would be wrong to change them in the middle of the process.”

    no slow walking Brown’s confirmation! No Reconciliation! No passing the bill as is!!!

    Happy One Year anniversary Obama!!!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfBx3EvDTEI

  9. ivehadit says:

    I’m sorry but the Bush administration was extremely competent. It was their unwillingness to defend their competency and the 24/7 pounding of a complicit democrat media that succeeded, I think, in creating an impression.

    New Orleans comes to mind. A corrupt state. A completely incompetent democrat state for decades prior to and during Katrina. A local and state government that failed to do their sovereign jobs which were NOT the responsibility of the Federal government, ala posse comitatus.

    Under George W. Bush we had 54 quarters of record growth following the attack on the WORLD Financial center and I could go on and on…and let’s not forget what had to be done to fix what the global socialists had attempted under clinton. As the Hillbuzz guys would say, DON’T BUY THE LEFT’S SPIN. And don’t be “Eyeores”….(You may want to read the letter they wrote to George W. Bush a couple months ago….you would be very surprised to see what they said…a letter of HUGE APOLOGY.)

    And for the record, I am an unabashed ideologue. My ideology? What the Founding Fathers said.

  10. oneal lane says:

    First of all I am overjoyed that Brown won and won clean and with a large enough margin to forstall any Democratic challenges.

    What’s next? Obama will probably attach portions of Obamacare to other important bills that the Republicans care deeply about and force them to swallow little bits at the time. I doubt seriously Obama and the Left will wake up and smell the roses, they will push even harder, yet craftier. The chess game will continue. There will be no move to the center like Clinton.

    AJ I would like to make a request. The terms “Moderate, centrist and independent” are used on this blog often. Please write a article outlining your definitions of these terms as you see them. And were a centrist would disagree with someone you consider “far right”

    I read your articles and often, not always, you sound like a very right wing person, though you claim centrist status.

    If you already have such an article on your page please point me to it. Thanks

    Sincerely
    Oneal

  11. the botnet says:

    Mike M.on 20 Jan 2010 at 8:39 am

    +5.

    the botnet agrees with AJ as well, but with a caveat: sure, it may be a good idea to namecall the RINOS if only to get them to go along with doing the right thing without the crying like skinned-kneed girls, but we do not want them to lead. We are at war, and meeting the enemy halfway when their objective is our destruction is not in our best interests.

    the botnet is all in for coalition building and the big tent thing, but only under the conditions described by Reagan’s “Bold Colors, not Pale Pastels” idea. When conservatives articulate first principles of fiscal responsibility and limited, constitutional government, the tent fills rapidly.

    Scott Brown succeeded by running on these principles.

  12. ivehadit says:

    Inclusive yes, moderate, not sure what that means. Reagan was no moderate. But he was inclusive.

  13. WWS says:

    Difficult thing you ask, Oneal, since there are a thousand issues and different answers for each issue.

    But here’s a definition that works for me – moderate, centrist means no radical or sudden changes on issues that affect the daily lives of people. Rather, policies should be followed which increase the quality of life for most Americans without sacrificing freedoms guaranteed by the constitution. Obama is failing because he proposed radical changes to this country that most people are not willing to live with, ie nationalizing health care and vastly increasing the size and authority of government. Worst of all is that everyone knows that this will increase taxes sooner or later, and they do not want to live with that. But that doesn’t mean that a majority is now in favor of abolishing social security and medicare, which some far right activists support. That is also a radical change that would be opposed by most.

    We need changes in the way we have been doing things, but we need slow, gradual evolutionary changes that always aim for *more* local control and less centralized control in the areas which can be controlled locally. Some very important things, especially national security, have to be centrally controlled, and that has been recognized since this country was created. But everything else – education, community standards, social standards – the more local control, the better. Not left or right; rather, small rather than big, local rather than removed. And then let the chips fall where they may. That’s what I would call a moderate, centrist, position.

    Evolution, not revolution.

  14. AJStrata says:

    Folks,

    Brown won as an independent republican. I will have updates later, but everything points to working with the center to stop the liberals and bring a new governing coalition into power.

    There is no majority of ‘true conservatives’ = they remain in political exile. Enjoy the win, but learn the lessons the Dems appear ready to ignore.

  15. mbabbitt says:

    The Democrats will learn; the Progressives (Radicals) will not. My bottom line is fiscal conservatism — don’t make government bigger, let the states handle the many issues not enumerated in (especially, Article 1 Section 8 of) the Constitution. There was a reason for the 10th Amendment.

    People also want to feel safe and that we are not politically correct lambs waiting for our slaughter. You just can’t lose your common sense when it comes to your defense.

    As to social issues, for example, I think we should respect that a growing number of people now consider abortion a form of murder — at least respect that this is a valid perspective. Respect, we don’t see much of this quality today. It’s demonization politics. Respect is what bipartisanship is all about and why it works. I think this is what the rebellion is about. I think people hoped and voted for Obama to end this demonization-disrespecting politics but ended up seeing the very opposite manifested in his and his party’s words and deeds. I think people, rightly so, feel betrayed.

  16. AJStrata says:

    mbabbit, agreed. The liberals will take this to the wall and provide the opening for a center left < -> center right coalition in partnership with reasonable ‘true conservatives’.

    This is open to individual interpretation, but there are lines not to cross well outside where a new political movement can be created. People just need to decide which side of those lines they want to be on.

  17. kathie says:

    Talk about respect, Obama talked a good game, but how many times did he give someone the middle finger? This kind of politics reminds me of teen age children on pot, it is unbearable! With all due respect this seat belongs to the people, with all due respect our government belongs to the people, all the people, not a few special ones.

    Let’s just face it, Obama wants special things for special people at everybody expense, though he won’t say so, the “tea party” goers called him out, BIG TIME.

  18. AJStrata says:

    ivehadit – your kidding right? All of those things are centrist conservative as well.

    Doh!

  19. the botnet says:

    Steve McCann @ AT hit on precisely this topic today. Well worth the read.

    “First, it must be understood that the enemy we are fighting, the Liberals or the Left, makes up 20% of the country’s population. Moderates are 36%, and conservatives are more than 40%. Based on that breakdown, one might assume that something like 67% of moderates lean to the conservative view. Thus, 64% of the citizenry are potential voters against what is happening in Congress and the White House.”

    http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/01/the_coming_democrat_counteroff.html

    McCann makes a point which seems valid… that 60+% should resist attempts by the left to divide us on minor issues. The 80% of things conservatives agree upon together is more important than allowing Statism to become more entrenched.
    Once again, the article is a great read.