Jan 14 2010

More Evidence Scott Brown Could Win Tuesday

Published by at 7:53 pm under 2010 Elections,All General Discussions

Another Major Update: The writing is on the wall. Coakley’s internal polls show at least a 5 point loss, Dems pivot to damage control spin.

So right now, she is destined to lose.”

It’s over.

Major Update: Brown surges into lead in latest poll:

The poll shows Brown, a state senator from Wrentham, besting Coakley, the state’s attorney general, by 50 percent to 46 percent, the first major survey to show Brown in the lead.

Paleologos said bellweather models show high numbers of independent voters turning out on election day, which benefits Brown, who has 65 percent of that bloc compared to Coakley’s 30 percent.

Looks like my prediction is heading to becoming reality. Watch out Dems, the entire country is coming to remove you from office. – end update

Earlier today I went out on my usual limb and predicted Scott Brown would win Tuesday. As everyone knows it’s all about turnout. But some people think, because the Dems outnumber the Reps by 3 to 1 that high turnout is bad for Brown.

That’s only true if you ignore the independents – who outnumber both parties. Here is an interesting article from RCP regarding McCain’s chances in Massachusetts last November, with some telling demographic numbers:

While Massachusetts is justifiably described as a Democratic state when compared to the Republicans (approximately 37% of the state’s registered voters are Democrats versus 13% who are Republicans), it actually has far more registered voters who do not formally align with any party – about 49% according to the state Elections Division.

So while Democrats swamp Republicans MA, Republicans + Independents swamp the Democrats. How could anyone miss the largest voter group in the state?  The R+I total is 62% – compared to dems at 37%.  In all the recent polls Coakley is way behind with Independents – and I mean waaaaay behind. She is losing the independents by 2 to 1 all of them (especially if you include the Kennedy vote). Low or high turnout, Coakley looks to be toast.

This is why a party that insults the centrists to the point a majority of them rises up in opposition is doomed to defeat on election day.

Plus there is more than just hard math to determine the trajectory of this race. Check out these comments from people processing absentee ballot requests (who can see the pulse of this election up close):

But as radio and television talk shows and the Fox News cable channel began championing Republican state Sen. Scott Brown, the race changed. Many of his advocates have also urged voters who aren’t sure they can make it to the polls Tuesday to file for absentee ballots in case the tally goes beyond election day.

“I’m finding a lot of people coming in are saying this is going to be close election,” Medeiros said.

She presumes some voters in the heavily Democratic town on Cape Cod may cross party lines on Tuesday. “There seems to be more talk about Brown,” she said. “And I think he’ll do well.”

And poll workers are also preparing for high turnout on Tuesday. “I didn’t think it would be big election but I think we are going to be busy on Tuesday,” Medeiros said.

H/T The Campaign Spot.  Anyone want to wager all this excitement in the electorate is over Coakley or the liberal in DC? With the party affiliation numbers the way they are I fail to see how Coakley pulls it out.

19 responses so far

19 Responses to “More Evidence Scott Brown Could Win Tuesday”

  1. lurker9876 says:

    Hopefully, Scott Brown has enough votes that cannot be challenged by ACORN/SEIU like Norm’s votes were.

    Wonder how soon Scott will be certified AND sworn in…

  2. Losing a high turn out special election in Massachusetts over health care would be especially terrifying to Democrats.

    Let us all pray it happens.

  3. And it looks like that is whats about to happen:

    Thursday, January 14, 2010

    How Now? Brown Wow! [Mark Steyn]

    A new poll in Boston:

    “It’s a Brown-out,” said Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center. “It’s a massive change in the political landscape.”

    The poll shows Brown, a state senator from Wrentham, besting Coakley, the state’s attorney general, by 50 percent to 46 percent, the first major survey to show Brown in the lead. Unenrolled long-shot Joseph L. Kennedy, an information technology executive with no relation to the famous family, gets 3 percent of the vote. Only 1 percent of voters were undecided.

    01/14 10:07 PMShare

  4. kathie says:


    Poll shocker: Scott Brown surges ahead in Senate race
    Boston Herald ^ | 1/14/10 | Jessica Van Sack
    Posted on 01/14/2010 7:33:10 PM PST by MAexile

    Riding a wave of opposition to Democratic health-care reform, GOP upstart Scott Brown is leading in the U.S. Senate race, raising the odds of a historic upset that would reverberate all the way to the White House, a new poll shows.

    Although Brown’s 4-point lead over Democrat Martha Coakley is within the Suffolk University/7News survey’s margin of error, the underdog’s position at the top of the results stunned even pollster David Paleologos.

    “It’s a Brown-out,” said Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center. “It’s a massive change in the politi

  5. archtop says:

    Trent and Kathie: I just saw that poll! Wow! I wonder if it’s due to this…

    (via Gateway Pundit)

    GAME-CHANGER—Martha Coakley: Devout Catholics “Probably Shouldn’t Work in the Emergency Room” (Video)

  6. WWS says:

    I participated in some bowl game pick’em pools last month.

    That cured me of the urge to try and predict anything for a while.

  7. kathie says:

    I’M STILL WORRIED! Can a Republican win in a Democrat State by a few points……..I doubt it, because the Dems can always find votes. Remember how Franklin found enough votes to win. Republicans always have to win big.

  8. AJStrata says:


    It won’t even be close.

  9. kathie says:

    OK AJ……..if he wins, I could smile for months. It will be so difficult for Obama to dismiss this win. He will have to be worried that the “tea parties” are for real, the MSM will have to acknowledge what Americans have been saying for months. Please STOP. Obama thinks we will all love the new “health care” bill when we get it….he thinks we are too stupid to know what is really good for us.

  10. ivehadit says:

    OK everyone, let’s all hold extremely positive thoughts for Scott Brown over the next 5 days. Send those thoughts to everyone in Massachusetts! Visualize him being sworn in! Can you see it? 🙂

    Go Scott! You can do it, Scott!!!!!

    I loved someone’s post on another site that said, when he donated to Brown, there was a box to list from where the donation was coming. He typed in, “America”. LOVE.IT.

  11. Frogg1 says:

    Robert Grant from Massachusetts adds that David Paleologos was the only person to nail the Hillary Victory In the 2008 New Hampshire Primary.

    More… Republican Scott Brown has reportedly raised at least one million dollars every day this week!
    http://gatewaypundit.firstthings.com/2010/01/scott-brown-surges-ahead-of-martha-coakley-in-latest-poll/%5Dtidbit of positive


    Following in Rothenberg’s steps, the Cook Political Report has also now moved the race to the “Toss-Up” category.
    http://michellemalkin.com/2010/01/14/da-bomb-brown-reportedly-raises-1-million-a-day-this-week/%5Dnow this

  12. Frogg1 says:

    The poll, conducted Monday through Wednesday, surveyed 500 registered likely voters who knew the date of Tuesday’s election. It shows Brown leading all regions of the state except Suffolk County.

  13. […] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Vince Humphreys, Penny's Pantry, Lynne Evans Sprowls, Raging Red, NorsU and others. NorsU said: RT @AJStrata: new: More Reasons Scott Brown Could Win Tuesday http://bit.ly/4ANwxI #masen […]

  14. […] This new world will arise as news of the pending loss of Ted Kennedy’s senate seat (see here and here for all the evidence of this happening) initiates events that will begin to reshape the […]

  15. AJ,

    This is an e-mail I got from a Mass local reporting on what he is seeing on the Brown – Coakley race:

    I have just come back from Boston, where we have an apartment & spend about half of our time. Support for Brown is clearly growing or at least is becoming much, much more obvious, especially since the Dems have started the vicious [really vicious] attacks on him, which I think are backfiring. Brown’s response so far has been forceful & dignified. The blue-collar support of Brown is obviously strong, which is a very new & noticeable phenomenon in this heavily Dem city. Barney Frank insulted a reporter who asked about the delay in certifying the election if Brown wins. This is being plastered all over the radio, as is Coakley’s statement that the terrorists have all left Afghanistan. Lawn signs for Brown, many of them home-made are all over middle-class neighborhoods. He may not win [if it is close, everybody believes the Dems will fiddle the votes], but there is something going on here that is new and important and will have legs. There is very strong visceral feeling in this election & while the radio is full of talk of jobs and joblessness, Obama and Coakley are talking about Obamacare & financial “reform.” She is outspending him something like 2 to 1 in the last few days of the race, with the Dem Nat Sen Comm and the big unions pouring money in to the state. It may not be enough, as she is a terrible speaker and is getting caught out on all sorts of stuff. She told a radio host that people should know that she has a sense of humor, so he asked her what her favorite joke was. She can’t remember one, not a single joke. She said she did not know what happened when her guy knocked over the WS reporter, but the papers are carrying pictures of her looking at the reporter on the ground. In contrast, Brown’s very attractive & articulate daughters have asked Coakley to retract some of the things she has said about their father. Guiliani is coming tomorrow to Paul Revere [yup] Park in the heavily Italian North End of Boston, which should turn out a good crowd. WJ Clinton is skipping Haiti tomorrow & is going to be in Worcester, where the police department has come out for Brown, I am told.

    This is all anecdotal, but sentiment is very obvious & is not going to stop — it is actively and militantly anti-incumbent, anti-Washington and is absolutely blurring party lines. The strength on the unapologetic, loud opposition to the current congress and administration is everywhere apparent.

    Judging from this, we have reached “Perfect Storm/Political Realignment” territory.

    The Left’s take over of the
    Democratic Party now has the Democratic Party base eating itself. The Left’s push for socialized medicine hits the vital interests of Democratic Party voters who have good medical insurance. Those voters are now turning to candidates outside the party to express their interests.

  16. This is Allahpundit’s comment on Hotair about the latest polling out of Mass:


    Update: Just noticed upon re-reading that Suffolk has the same number of Dems crossing for Brown as PPP did last weekend — 17 percent, a shocking amount. Also shocking:

    >The poll surveyed a carefully partitioned electorate
    >meant to match voter turnout: 39 percent
    >Democrat, 15 percent Republican and 45 percent

    The Democratic sample is +24 — and Scott Brown still leads?

  17. […] Looks like that political tsunami rising from the American electorate in response to foolish liberal failures on the economy, health care and national security (they did let two terrorists get through our defenses, probably due to changes in the sensitivity of our reactions to leads) is a lot bigger than anyone could possibly imagine. Yesterday I predicted a Scott Brown win (see here and here). […]

  18. Scott Brown surges in MA…

    Check out the latest polling numbers, and AJ Strata’s analysis of those numbers, here. Absolutely remarkable. Is it possible? Can the GOP pull off what would have to be considered one of the biggest upsets in US Senate history? How long has it be…

  19. […] The Washington Examiner: (Hat Tips: Strata-Sphere and Sister Toldja) Here in Massachusetts, as well as in Washington, a growing sense of gloom is […]