Jan 14 2010

AJStrata Prediction: Scott Brown Wins MA Special Election

Published by at 2:11 pm under 2010 Elections,All General Discussions

Updates Below!

Major Update: Looks like I may not be that far off:

Coakley’s internal poll last night, I’ve been told, showed her barely ahead, 46 to 44 percent. The momentum clearly favors Brown, and one very smart Massachusetts Democrat I know told me this morning that “this may be too far gone to recover.”

And that is with 5 days for more momentum to build. Explains why Coakley is so testy – end update

I have been holding off for days in making a prediction in the upcoming MA special election. Mainly because of my poor performance in predicting the 2006 and 2008 races. Back then I underestimated the broad and visceral anger emanating from the centrists towards the conservatives (an anger I never shared) and expected less emotion and more logic in the voting booth.

I have since learned my lesson to a degree, but I still cannot contain my enthusiasm for the way this race is shaping up. Besides, the anger has now shifted direction as we saw in NJ and VA in 2009. Since I don’t ever mind being wrong (each time is a teachable moment) I see no reason to be shy now. I will share my reasons why I think Scott Brown will steal the MA special election next Tuesday (and send a jolt through DC politics in the process).

I won’t recap all the history and failures leading to this point (did that in this post). Instead I want to focus on new signs and polls that indicate the electorate, which now is turning on President Obama, is growing in size and intensity. This wave will spill over into this election.

Take, for example, the President’s continued fall from grace to the point most people would not re-elect him in 2012. Too few are racing to his side for 2012, let alone this special election.

In addition, what we see in MA is what we saw in the NJ governor election with a 3rd party candidate. This is clearly mirrored in this recent poll where Coakley supposedly leads  by 9%.

QUESTION: If the 2010 special election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Martha Coakley, the Democrat, Scott Brown, the Republican, or Joseph Kennedy, the Libertarian candidate?

Martha Coakley 49% 82% 7% 36%
Scott Brown 41% 12% 85% 49%
Joseph Kennedy 5% 1% 2% 11%
Undecided 5% 5% 6% 4%

This poll results have some questionable assumptions built in. First and foremost, with a MoE of +/- 4% this is a statistical tie.

As in NJ there are a lot of people still claiming they will throw their vote away on the 3rd party candidate (Kennedy – no relation). This has led the Dems to assume the Independents are not as lost as other polls indicate – but this is just wishful thinking. The poll clearly shows Independents are voting 60% for ‘anyone but Coakley’. I doubt Kennedy will steal more than a percent or two. Why go vote if you are going to throw it away?

The second area to look at in this poll is the party affiliation numbers (D-R-I): 40-18-42. Turn out is key and there are indications the R-I numbers will be strong while the D numbers will be weak. This is from the NY Times, which buried this little gem:

… but the Democrats who watch these things say the absentee ballot requests are way up in traditionally Republican areas and down in the places that went hard for Obama in 2008.

That would indicate, as was noted in this post, that the more energized groups are the R’s and I’s. If we see a combination of higher turn out in the groups opposing Coakley and the 3rd party candidate whither away (as they always do) then I see Brown winning this thing.

Finally, Coakley has proven to be a political disaster. She is so tone death it is a wonder she even knows there is a race going on. She has been dismissing the voters themselves – never a good thing when you want their support. This is a great example of how the people are reacting to her:

Aside from the apparent feeling that the seat belongs to her just by virtue of her party, she just admitted that she doesn’t need to bother meeting with constituents because she’s meeting people like Kim Driscoll, and political leaders, and Democrat activists. I guess they’re the ones that matter, huh? I know it’s a “special election” and all, but that doesn’t mean that she doesn’t need to fight for this seat. Prancing around with this mindset of “Oh, I’m a Democrat, therefore Ted Kennedy’s seat just automatically belongs to me regardless of what the people think,” is idiotic. Acting as if she doesn’t need to give her constituents the time of day is ludicrous. She can make all the snide remarks about Scott Brown shaking hands with people in the cold that she wants, but that’s what you’re supposed to do when you’re trying to get elected. She seems to have forgotten that she’s trying to get elected in Massachusetts, and not in Washington D.C. — if she remembered that, maybe she’d spend more time trying to impress Massachusetts voters and less time rubbing elbows with the Democrat establishment, Big Pharmacy lobbyists, and union leaders. Most normal politicians, Republican or Democrat, do go shake hands with voters. Even if it means standing in the cold outside of Fenway Park.

Roll all this up and I see Brown making some history next Tuesday. Now let’s just hope I didn’t jinx it!

Update: The Big Mo:

Democratic desperation and other compelling evidence strongly suggest that Democrats may well lose the late Senator Edward Kennedy’s Senate seat in Tuesday’s special election. Because of this, we are moving our rating of the race from Narrow Advantage for the Incumbent Party to Toss-Up.

Today toss-up, tomorrow ….

Update: Those internal polls must look horrible for Coakley if the President is claiming his entire agenda rests on this race. As I said, the Dems are not rallying but that rising tide of red hot opposition just got one more reason to get out and vote. Amazing.

Please pass the popcorn!

Update: Must see videos at The Campaign Spot.

19 responses so far

19 Responses to “AJStrata Prediction: Scott Brown Wins MA Special Election”

  1. browngreengold says:

    I certainly hope you’re right on this one AJ.

    If not, you’re going to have to get out of the prediction business entirely.

    For the sake of our country, not to mention your shattered pride, I hope you’re right. 🙂

    Exit questions:

    Is Obama avoiding a visit to MA to avoid those inconvenient and uncomfortable photos like those from the NJ and VA gov. races?

    Are Scott Browns’ words to Obama to “stay out” of MA intended as a Brair Rabbit type challenge?

  2. AJStrata says:


    I will nevah get out of making predictions.

    I would love to get out of making wrong ones!

    And I did predict wins in NJ and VA and the loss in NY-23 (no one remembers the good ones).


  3. jimharlow says:

    Republicans have zero chance of winning an election in Massachusetts.

    I predict it will be a landslide in favor of Coakley…and stun Republicans.

  4. Alert1201 says:

    We will not be stunned. As far as I’m concerned we’ve done enough damage if Brown loses it will still show the tide is turning on the Dems. Even with a idiot democrat drone like Coakley, getting this close has done enough damage.

    The dems are panicking and this race shows it.

  5. Alert1201 says:

    I was thinking Brown had a good chance. However, now that AJ has thrown his hat in and made the prediction I’m having my doubts 🙂

  6. Alert1201 says:

    Just read Giuliani is going the Ma to help Brown, this is good!


  7. AJ,

    Kevin Collins has posted some ‘slit your wrists after reading’ political poll numbers for Democrats.



    Since June 28 Rasmussen’s generic ballot numbers have given Republicans at least a +2 over Democrats. In 1994 when Republicans swept to 54 victories and retook the House, the Democrat controlled Congress had an approval rating of 23% and Republicans ended with a final + 6. Today Rasmussen has Republicans +9 and the Congressional approval rating is 27%.

    Another ominous indicator of Democrat disaster in November is the huge -20.7 right track/wrong track difference as reported by realclearpolitics.com

    Recently the Leftist dailykos.com delivered perhaps the worst news for Democrats in its report on voter intensity – the level of joyful anticipation voters have as they look forward to voting.

    The dailykos is saying this is what they found: Democrats are looking forward to voting by 56/40, Independent voters 65/23 but Republican Voters are clawing at the ground to vote by a score of 81/14.

  8. Redteam says:

    I also hope you’re correct. Actually I think you are on the actual vote count results. It’s the stolen votes you have not included in your numbers that may very well give it to the Dims.

  9. AJStrata says:


    I have been waiting for this wave to rise above the denial for sometime. Looks like the mother of all political tsunamis.

  10. KauaiBoy says:

    Love the optimism and the picture of Jaws!

  11. AJ,

    It is still a matter of voter turn out.

    The Democrats have purchased every available media spot in the Boston market to carpet bomb Brown with negative ads.

    All I can reason out here is that Democrats are trying to kill the anti-Democrat independent voter turn out with negative campaigning.

    Then use Democratic ACORN/SEIU GOTV efforts to win versus a much smaller, predominetly Republican base, pro-Brown turn out.

    It might still work given the demographics of the state.

  12. browngreengold says:

    What does the weather portend for Tuesday?

    Anyone taken a look at that yet?

  13. lurker9876 says:

    I wouldn’t make any predictions on this election.

    We may see voter fraud but AJ may be right that the American Public will no longer be complacent and accepting of stolen elections after Al Franken.

    As for Al Franken and Norm Coleman, when Norm asked for donations, I did not want to help a RINO like Norm Coleman and I didn’t care what the outcome of that election was. Didn’t matter who won as there’s no difference between Al and Norm.

    Scott Brown? I cared this time. I understand Scott voted in favor of RomneyCare but he would vote against obamacare.

    I don’t know how conservative this guy is but if he wins, that makes it more difficult for Reid to get that sixty votes unless he bribes Snowe and Collins. If Snowe and Collins did the Nelson thing, that would be the death knell of them and the GOP party.

  14. archtop says:

    “I will nevah get out of making predictions.”
    “I would love to get out of making wrong ones!”

    Sorta like the climate scientists…LOL

    I’m with you, AJ – I hope Brown wins, but even if he narrowly loses, the Dems have already lost — specifically, money and energy — trying to defend Ted Kennedy’s the People’s seat in Massachusettes Massachusetts!!

  15. […] Earlier today I went out on my usual limb and predicted Scott Brown would win Tuesday. As everyone knows it’s all about turnout. But some people think, because the Dems outnumber the Reps by 3 to 1 that high turnout is bad for Brown. […]

  16. Redteam says:


    “We may see voter fraud but AJ may be right that the American Public will no longer be complacent and accepting of stolen elections after Al Franken.”
    disagree, they had no problem with voter fraud in that NY contest just recently, plain stole it. nobody peeped. public just rolled over.

    “As for Al Franken and Norm Coleman, when Norm asked for donations, I did not want to help a RINO like Norm Coleman and I didn’t care what the outcome of that election was. Didn’t matter who won as there’s no difference between Al and Norm.”

    LOL, you had me fooled for a moment, thought you knew something about politics.

  17. […] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Lynne Evans Sprowls, NorsU, UGAN.com, PaulRobb, AJ Strata and others. AJ Strata said: new: AJStrata Prediction: Scott Brown Wins MA Special Election http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/12285 […]

  18. […] new world will arise as news of the pending loss of Ted Kennedy’s senate seat (see here and here for all the evidence of this happening) initiates events that will begin to reshape the political […]

  19. […] is a lot bigger than anyone could possibly imagine. Yesterday I predicted a Scott Brown win (see here and […]