Jan 13 2010

Scott Brown Surges In Massachusetts Special Election

Published by at 8:49 am under 2010 Elections,All General Discussions

Updates Below!

It’s not a matter of wild speculation or some remote possibility with very low odds any more. There is clear evidence, coming in from all corners, that Scott Brown is surging with incredibly momentum late in the race to fill the senate seat of the Honorable Ted Kennedy. What is also clear is that Brown is surfing a wave of pent up voter anger with the current direction of the Democrats in DC.

First let’s start with this little gem right from the mouth of the opposing candidate in a conference call with top Democrat donors:

On a private conference call with DNC chair Tim Kaine and top Dem donors this afternoon, Dem Senate candidate Martha Coakley acknowledged that GOPer Scott Brown’s surge was “frightening,” said top Dem donors had been complacent, and promised a last burst of TV ads to close out the race.

“It’s a little frightening how much traction he’s been able to get so quickly,” Coakley said on the call, which I was able to listen in on this afternoon, adding that he’d successfully used terror and joblessness to stoke voter fears.

Emphasis mine. Only the truly clueless would buy this assessment of what is happening. Cluelessness bolstered and built on the foundation of deep denial.

As the Democrats come closer to passing their Frankenstein’s Monster of Health Care (laden with massive hidden taxes, higher premiums, Medicare cuts and no real health care changes for years to come) the tide of revolt has been rising. Health Care is not the only factor, but it is the straw breaking the American People’s patience.

The core of this wave, like any tsunami which results from a collapse, was begun with the utter failure of the liberal stimulus bill (as many of us predicted would be the result). The hastily passed bill has done nothing for unemployment – which is no surprise with the stimulus money stuck in the bowels of the bloated federal bureaucracy. Maybe next year the Democrats claim.

The only tangible result was to rack up a horrific debt that will require generations to repay. As the months of economic suffering have passed without any course correction, the size and breadth of this wave has grown. The Health Care debate was simply the coast line which caused the wave to finally rise up and break. But it is a monster from what we are seeing in Massachusetts.

The Dem0ocrats came to power on a smaller but similar wave caused by ultra conservatives who over reached on a lot of issues and spent years insulting the vast center of the country (who also decide which side wins elections). Arrogant and nasty wasn’t a winning strategy apparently (even though some of us were ringing the warning bells the entire time). Add in a good dose of war fatigue and the retirement of the President America had stood by during that war and you had a recipe for ‘change’.

But ‘change’ is not a license to pillage and oppress. During their campaigns the Democrats cynically projected a facade of reasonableness where the nation comes together as part of their ‘change’. They promised bipartisanship, openness, purity and a new hope where the average person would be elevated to a position of respect in the national debate.

Yeah, well that was what they promised. What we got was such hyper-partisanship that the far left has even shut out the center left (something the far right had wanted to do before they were ousted). We have closed door deals to big companies. Bribes to states for votes making the playing field in America uneven, but ensuring the incumbent can win the next election. We have strong arm tactics which include throwing low-brow insults at centrist Americans who went out to Tea Parties to send a warning sign to the DC Democrats they were heading down the wrong path.

We did not get the promised snake oil cure to all our woes.

Instead of building a coalition of broad support the Democrats have spent a year building a revolt against them – which ironically has all the promised broad support. Seniors, Independents, Left of Center Pumas and Friends of Hillary, Unions and Doctors (as opposed to medical organizations), center right conservatives and far right conservatives – all lining up in opposition.

The Democrats created this backlash just like the Jacob Marley (A Christmas Carol) built his chains in Hell, except Marley took a life time and the Democrats did it in under a year. Any surprise as to what they did to themselves is comical. What? Did they really think they could break all their promises and then pivot back and make more promises to us poor dupes??

Here is another bit of evidence from the Democrat side confirming the total collapse of their governing majority – as brief as it was.

In a sign of serious worry about the increasingly tense battle for Ted Kennedy’s seat, the Democratic National Committee and the Martha Coakley campaign have blasted a private memo to top national Dem donors claiming internal polling shows the race is “very tight” and making an “urgent” appeal for donations.

You cannot fight this wave with money or ads. And Coakley’s missteps have been compounding themselves in a manner I have never seen before – she is completely tone deaf. The idea she could run to DC in the last week of the campaign for help sends a clear signal to the voters of Massachusetts where her ‘constituents’ live. In a year where being labeled a DC politician could ruin you for life, you don’t run into that cesspool and expect to come out a white knight figure. Yoda says “Denial is deep in that one, uh-uh-uh-uh”.

But there are also the polls, which show Scott Brown already tied and on his way to a lead next week. Remember polls are snapshots. If there is dramatic movement they will only indicate the direction. Most races are stagnant and don’t move a lot which is why people get lulled into thinking that’s it, those are the final numbers. This ain’t one of those.

Rasmussen shows Brown completely eliminating his 9 point deficit from last week’s poll. If he were a ballistic object shot from a cannon he would win this race by 3-4 points next week. Taegan Goddoard notes an internal poll which shows the same 10 point drop in a week. This is not coincidence.

They key is turnout – and the Dems have no fire. But that broad coalition of opposition sure does. Brown has the independents on his side – and I would wager the senior citizens as well. All the polls show the more likely someone is to vote the more likely they are voting for Brown. If your fed up and want to send a message, apparently Brown will be your messenger.

This phenomena is not limited to MA. Independents are bailing on the Democrats nationally as well. In the broader 2010 election perspective what this race is telling us today is earth shattering.

The Democrats look to be ready to lose one of the most solid Democrat seats in Congress in a deep blue state. This was one of their castles high on the hill, unreachable to the political waves. If the wave reaches this castle and topples it, all the lower lying Democrat bastions will go too. We know the wave is at the door step, we are only waiting to see if it breaches the walls.

Almost every seat the Democrats have is now in trouble. If the GOP can find a center right candidate for these blue seats, they can take give it a good run. The less blue the seat the more the candidate can shift to the conservative right. But no one should forget the newly established fact taught this year – the nation is centrist.

Both parties (or partisans) need to learn that you can’t insult the centrists and expect them to vote for your cause. Nor can you shut them out of the debate and expect them to support your product. It seems a bit of a n0-brainer, but who ever thought the folks in DC had fully functional brains in the first place???

Update: Signs of the wave from Gallup. Note the support from Independents per topic (you have to imagine or compute the opposition numbers):

It is possible the independents oppose Obama (and the Libs) on health care and the economy by 60-30 margins – meaning Obama has lost 2/3 of the center of the country. I know a lot of Democrats have said they are willing to lose their seat for certain wild liberal causes. But are they will to blow the Democrat party into oblivion as well?

Update: Yeah, shove the people around and see how THAT works on election day.

13 responses so far

13 Responses to “Scott Brown Surges In Massachusetts Special Election”

  1. lurker9876 says:

    I see that Obama is planning to give a speech at the Republican retreat.

    I don’t think he gave a speech at last year’s Republican retreat.

    There are so many numbers that may have convinced Obama to go to this retreat but we don’t know exactly what his new agenda with the Republicans is.

    Is he trying to appease the Republicans…because the anger of the American Public, his numbers too low, and that he now needs more votes and support from the Republicans than ever?

    If that is the case, I hope the Republicans don’t capitulate to Obama, Rahm, Axelrod, and the Democrats….like Snowe and Collins.

  2. AJ,

    It is now down to voter turn out .

    I am told by locals that Mass elections have a reputation of having dirty Democratic primaries and clean general elections. There were so many Democrats that it didn’t matter in the General election, so they never bothered.

    However, the ACORN/SEIU crowd has parachuted into Mass. in numbers for this special election.

    We shall see come Tuesday how that plays out.

    With enough votes, they can’t cheat big enough.

  3. AJ,

    Evidence for your political wave via Jim Geraghty:


    ‘Vote Coakley, Because America Doesn’t Need Any More Competitive Races.’

    If you missed it late last night, we reported that at her Washington fundraiser, Democratic Senate candidate Martha Coakley herself fired up the crowd with this inspiring line: “If I don’t win, 2010 is going to be hell for Democrats . . . Every Democrat will have a competitive race*.”

    Her defeat was also described as “Waterloo for health care.”

    My spy said three things surprised him last night. First, that Democrats were rather openly and indisputably talking about the race as if it could be lost — this isn’t the usual let’s-work-as-if-we’re behind rallying cries. Second, the attendees and speakers apparently really believe that a Brown victory would kill the health care reform bill. The pass-it-before-Brown-takes-office strategy is apparently not that appealing. Thirdly, how blatantly they were shaking down the lobbyists in attendance, making comments in the vein of, “if you don’t give now, you’ll have to give a hell of a lot more later.”


    * Ma'am, if you have a competitive race, isn't it likely that almost every Democrat is going to have a competitive race in November?

    01/13 08:14 AM Share

  4. […] Brown has experienced quite the surge in polling during the last week. Here and […]

  5. WWS says:

    “This was one of their castles high on the hill, unreachable to the political waves. If the wave reaches this castle and topples it, all the lower lying Democrat bastions will go too. We know the wave is at the door step, we are only waiting to see if it breaches the walls.”

    See, everybody said that Climate Change was gonna be deadly! It’s George Bush’s Fault!

  6. AJStrata says:

    You caught me WWS!

  7. oneal lane says:

    If the Democrats initiate any of the post election stalling senarios, I hope that there is another Tea Party in Boston Harbor.

    Is it not ironic that this important battle in the war over the future of the Republic is in Massachusetts.

  8. Redteam says:

    I think the Repubs will get the most votes then it will be stolen thru all the voter fraud the Dims and SEIU and Acorn can put together.

    The Repubs have not mastered the art of stealing elections…

  9. Quite Rightly says:

    Excellent post! I’ve been following your blog for a long time, and I am very appreciative of your analyses.

    “You cannot fight this wave with money or ads.”

    Yes, but, if you are part of the Democrat machine, you can fight it with your back-room supply of absentee ballots and other vote-counting larcenies.

    If Coakley succeeds in taking this tight race after insulting the fans of Fenway Park, then it’s hard to imagine that mischief was not afoot.

  10. AJStrata says:

    Quite Rightly – many thanks. I really think this one may have gotten away from them. I am amazed at how many times they believe their own spin in the left.

  11. Neo says:

    My money is on the “deal” to exempt unions form the “Cadillac Tax” will go “inoperative” after the MA Senate election is over.

  12. […] won’t recap all the history and failures leading to this point (did that in this post). Instead I want to focus on new signs and polls that indicate the electorate, which now us turning […]