Dec 01 2009

The One Place On Earth Runaway Warming Should Be Obvious

Now that I am more confident the file I discovered in the CRU data dump is actually the CRU global temperatures prior to all those AGW ‘corrections (see here), I want to focus in on one country that would be the perfect ‘canary in a coal mine’ for planet Earth. If there really was rampant warming occurring we would see it here first and unambiguously. That country is Malaysia, and in the ‘raw’ CRU data it has a very interesting 100 year record.

Here are the four seasonal graphs for Malaysia showing the 2005 data (black) and 2008b data(purple) – click to enlarge.

Looks like a lot of warming doesn’t it? Yeah, except for one thing – the temperature in Malaysia has been bouncing around the same temperature for 100 years. Those temperatures in their summer are rarely changing by more than 1°C.

The scale on the middle two charts, running from June through November, is in 0.2°C increments. Therefore the temperature for this period never varies beyond 1°C and 1.2°C. Hasn’t in 100 years.

In the first and last graphs, running from December through May (Malaysia’s winter) the range is wider and we see a warm spike in the late 1990’s, but other than that we see the same steady temperature.

Note the trend lines (red=2008b, black=2005). Because of the recent global cooling the mean temperature for Malaysia has dropped quite significantly, which has (strangely) dropped the trend lines. The reason I say ‘strangely’ is because adding 3 years of new data to the end should not effect the trend all the way back to 1900. So that trend is suspect in my opinion.

Anyway, if you look at the end of each graph you can see all four seasons have returned to ‘normal’ (purple trend line). Whatever warming had occurred is now gone. The one place on Earth that should clearly show a warming signal would be in the period between June and November in Malaysia. Right now Malaysia looks as it has for the past century.

Malaysia is very interesting because most places on Earth have much broader variations in temperature. If there was runaway global warming it is hard to tease it out of all that temperature variation. But in Malaysia it would be obvious since the ‘normal’ temp range is so small. We don’t see it, we see more of the same. Our canary is doing just fine – per CRU’s own data.

These CRU charts look nothing like the normal alarmists graphs, all ‘corrected’ and ‘adjusted’ with statistical noise and huge uncertainties:

Why is that? Well hopefully the alarmists will have a defendable excuse for their statistical chicanery.

Update: If your wondering how the alarmists smear the temp data check out the data discovered in the ‘censored‘ folder in the CRU data dump. It clearly shows that not even the tree rings show warming, until they too are ‘corrected’ and ‘adjusted’. – end update

One other interesting observation – if it wasn’t for that deep cool spell in the 1970’s the recent warming would not look so dramatic. What really is funny is how the current group of Chicken Littles crying “the end of the Earth is coming due to global warming!” are just like (and sometimes the same as) the Chicken Littles who ran around the 70’s screaming “the end of the Earth is coming due to a global ice age!“. Every time the thermometer moves these people panic.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

For those not familiar with the CRU charts here is what they contain:

6 responses so far

6 Responses to “The One Place On Earth Runaway Warming Should Be Obvious”

  1. WWS says:

    You’ll just love reason #4 that Charles Johnson just gave when stating why he is officially and publicly embracing the Left and is abandoning the right completely and forever:

    “4. Support for anti-science craziness (see: …. climate charge denialism, Sarah Palin, Michele Bachman, James Inhofe, etc.)”

    his Reason #7 throws in another dig at “Climate Deniers” and claims that all people such as yourself are on the same level as Alex Jones.

    So tell us again how proud you are to stand by this man. I thought you were going to talk him out of this – what went wrong?

  2. AJStrata says:

    What went wrong is the ‘true conservatives’ and their vitriol. CJ is very sharp, but he lost his tolerance – which happens when you are around a bunch of intolerant people. He is just a reflection of what he’s seen.

    Yeah, I agree with him on many things. The exceptions are Palin and AGW. I don’t throw people under the bus because I disagree. It is why I remain a conservative and challenge the drama queens who call themselves ‘true conservatives’. Buchanan is small minded nativist.

    The fact CJ is this bitter and a lost cause is a reflection on the toxic characters in the far right. If pushed WWS to make a choice (which I don’t have to do) I would probably chose neither.

    It is a sad day for the right when you chase someone like Johnson out of the big tent. If this continues all they will get is a bunch of lunatics in pup tent.

  3. crosspatch says:

    Actually, the places where greenhouse warming should be most noticeable are at the poles in winter and winter low temperatures in temperate regions.

    Greenhouse warming wouldn’t be expected to increase high temperatures so much as to moderate low temperatures. This is because heat radiating from the surface at night would be absorbed by CO2 and some of it re-radiated back down to the surface.

    In equatorial regions water vapor swamps CO2. In polar regions in winter the air is very, very dry and there is no sunlight. Heat radiates all winter long out into space. As there is little water vapor, CO2 should play a larger role in the total greenhouse. In high latitude temperate regions you also have very dry air and very long nights in the winter.

    The RSS and UAH satellite measurements are very good at measuring this. What they show is mixed results. Since 1979 the trend at the South Pole has been a 0.06 degree cooling, or basically flat temperatures. The North Pole has seen a warming trend of 0.43 or about a half of a degree but that is somewhat misleading because the October anomaly has been declining for the last three years. So it was cooler this October than last, and last was cooler than the one before it.

    Equatorial regions are generally humid and greenhouse warming (ever sit on the porch on a humid 85 degree night in the summer?) from water vapor (humidity) completely wipes out any greenhouse warming from CO2.

  4. […] The One Place On Earth Runaway Warming Should Be Obvious […]

  5. […] The One Place On Earth Runaway Warming Should Be Obvious […]

  6. […] As I noted in this post, the one place on Earth were a significant warming trend should easily show up (because it has such a tight temp range) showed nothing significant. And this is CRU’s own data! […]