Nov 03 2009
Today’s Elections
Democrats better take notice in Virginia today. The purple state that has been trending democrat for years, some could say leading the defection of the GOP that took hold in 2006 and 2008, which went for Barack Obama in 2008 53-47%, is going to send a message today.
The state is going to elect a slate of center right republicans to the state wide offices, and a number of GOP delegates as well. And the margins are going to be noteworthy, if not historic. Democrats will lose the states independents in droves. They will lose Democrat blue Northern Virginia. They may even begin to hemorrhage african american votes. It will be such a vast shellacking only those in deep denial will say it was one candidate or just local issues. This state is the only race where there is no splitting of the anti-democrat, anti-Obama vote.
New Jersey will be the second race to watch. I said a long time ago the anti-Corzine, anti-Democrat wave is really intense and that Daggett supporters and undecideds will go to Christie in the end. Watch Corzine’s numbers for one thing – how small the pro-democrat, pro-Corzine vote is. I would be surprised if it went much beyond 41%.
NY-23 is such a mess it is all local politics and personalities. The only thing there to watch is the ‘throw the bums out’ sentiment, which could propel Hoffman into the winner’s circle. The nation is fed up with the Political Industrial Complex which tells the average people what to think, and then goes on to insult their judgement when they dare to disagree. The Political Industrial Complex is obsessed with the partisan fringe wars, where as Americans are fed up with them. We need new blood to shake up the old thinking, the old ways. We need rogues and mavericks in there pulling back the cancer of big government. Hoffman could easily be seen in that light. We shall see, whoever wins has to come back next fall in a real election.
But today’s message will be very clear – we are fed up with DC and their arrogant screw ups.
Update: The NY Times has a timely article out on how President Obama is losing supporters in Iowa as well:
Interviews with voters across Iowa offer a window into how the president’s standing has leveled off, especially among the independents and Republicans who contributed not just to his margin of victory in the caucuses here but also to the optimism among his supporters that his election would be a break from standard-issue politics.
…
“All my Republican friends — and independents — are sitting back saying, ‘Oh, what did we do?†Ms. McAreavy said. “I’m not to that point yet, but a lot of people are.â€
…
A social studies teacher who saw Mr. Obama on his maiden visit here wonders whether momentum from the election is gone forever. A retired electrical engineer who became a Democrat to support Mr. Obama believes that the president too often blames others for his troubles. And a teacher who voted for Mr. Obama because she was fed up with President George W. Bush does not trust this administration any more than the previous one.
Reality has slammed into the Wunder Kid, and he is just not doing very well.
A poster working the NJ elections went past a few precincts and noticed no lines or very short lines this morning.
Daggett considered himself as liberal. Had he dropped out, Corzine might have won.
Let’s hope Christie wins by a landslide to prevent Corzine from using ACORN tactics to win more false votes like Al Franken did.
We really should take a closer look at the Declaration of Independence as it applies to today’s climate. Especially the usurpations and abuse by our King and Obama.
AJ,
Fred Barnes has an old political memory that applies to today’s election returns and he knows how to write about it:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703932904574511263515975366.html
Only once in recent decades has Congress inadvertently prompted a protest so formidable that it had to reverse itself almost overnight. In 1988, it passed the Medicare Catastrophic Coverage Act to protect seniors against ruinous medical costs. Fees paid by middle- and upper-income seniors were to finance the program.
Seniors rebelled because they were required to pay too much, on a means-tested basis, for coverage that would disproportionately help others and because it didn’t have what they actually wanted, long-term health-care benefits. The following year the law was repealed.
The furious reaction to unwanted Medicare coverage, which included seniors climbing on the car of then-House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Dan Rostenkowski, is a preview of the eruption of public outrage that would greet the signing of ObamaCare into law. Only the protests would be larger, more frequent and angrier. Since everyone’s health care would be affected, a sizeable chunk of the country would be in a constant uproar.
There would be more tea parties, angry demonstrations and marches on Washington. Town-hall meetings of Democrats would be raucous. Sit-ins would occur at congressional offices. Conservative talk radio would turn opposition to ObamaCare into a national crusade.
Many Republicans believe the passage of liberal health-care legislation would be a windfall for them. Indeed it might be. They’ve already discussed taking up the crusade to kill ObamaCare as their own. They would make it the centerpiece, along with the economy, of the 2010 midterm election.
In Washington, there’s an atmosphere of denial. Obama senior adviser Valerie Jarrett said Sunday that the White House believes a majority supports the president’s health-care program. “It depends on what poll you’re looking at,” she told George Stephanopoulos of ABC News. Ms. Jarrett must have polled congressional Democrats. They’re the only majority—and a lopsided one—in favor of ObamaCare.
I’m thinking that popcorn is going to be a growth food segment among the political right as they watch today’s election returns and contemplate 2010 & 2012.
Nutball regimes become more so under pressure, and the Obama Admistration — after today’s election returns — will be under a lot more political pressure from it’s Democratic Party Left Wing.
Aj… I am going to lobby for the term “responsible Conservative” … which is how I consider myself… I find myself offended when you seem to lump all conservatives into one pile…
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This smallish round of elections [opinion alert] will/should be seen as a victory for responsible conservatism [is that a word?] drawing the center towards the right… [with an assist from the overreaching policies… bills… incompetence… etc etc of the Dems, of course]
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btw, would you mind deleting Stevvee’s copy/past posts on Reagan… We get it Stevee… whether we agree or not… point made…
Maybe better would be to state that the Center moved towards responsible conservatism…
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as opposed to somehow being “drawn” as I opined above…
I saw this article at Big Government linked at Hot Air and I pretty much agree. In particular these four paragraphs:
Toes:
btw, would you mind deleting Stevvee’s copy/past posts on Reagan… We get it Stevee… whether we agree or not… point made…
Toes, What I was hoping for was:
1. If your were old enough to vote in 1980 or 1984, as a moderate, did you vote for Reagan?
2. If so, what, as a moderate, draw you to him?
That was it. Sounds easy and simple, doesn’t it? No tricks, just wondered what made so many moderates vote for an obvious Conservative.
Yet, all I got was unrelated insults that were weird.
Toes,
I am very clear when I refer to ‘true conservatives’ and ‘far right’ to make sure I am not lumping us all into one pile.
Moderate Republicans: A Case Study,
I live in Concord, N.C. I purchased my home in 2/1998, and was represented in Congress by Robyn Hayes [R] NC.
In 2006 Larry Kissell, [D] came within 250 votes of beating Robyn Hayes.
In 2008, Larry did beat Robyn Hayes.
Robyn, was the Poster Child for Moderate Republicans. He voted for whatever Bush Pushed. CAFTA, Prescription Drugs, you name it.
He said he opposed CAFTA, but that was before he was for it. All these wishy washy positions, changing his mind, seemingly, have no real principles did him in.
Larry ran on most positions, to the Right of Robyn. Larry won.
My sister lives in Hendersonville, where, in 2006, the Dem’s ran Heath Shuller to the Right of Charles _ _ _cant remenber his last name. Guess who won? The Moderate Republican, or the Blue Dog?
It was the Blue Dog. My sister and her husband like Heath, and voted for him in 2008, along with Bob Barr for President.
I’d think there just might be a lesson here somewhere.
Overall, Larry has voted with his District, rather than Obama. Same with Heath.
Something to think about.
Toes, it’s Steve V V S, which is my High School in Central N.Y.
Take Care
CP,
Excellent point. I would go farther than that. I would lobby for primaries to stay open to all so the voters can decide where the party should go and can feel included in the process instead of shut out by the zealots.
Stevevvs… Toes… #4 on the NCHS bb Championship team 1955… Wyoming… USMC 60’s … Hope that answers your did I vote in 1980 question…
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Semper Fi your son, Aj & tx for your clarification… but I am still lobbying for “responsible Conservative” label…
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[opinion alert] … All posts and commenters… Best if shorter… make your point[s] & leave the interpretation to readers… This is my personal 1st am read and in my alzheimerish haze… cannot follow such complicated thoughts… but… I got an A+ in logic at Stanford so don’t try any tricky false premise cr**ola… That’s for rookies…
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Going to a Valour IT site to contribute now… Marines will do best as usual…
Moderate [R] Pat McCrory, mayor of Charlotte, lost to Beverly Pudue [D] in the Governors race.
Moderate Elizabeth Dole [R] Lost her senate seat to Kay Hagin [D]
Meanwhile, Conservatives Patrick Mc Henry, Walter Jones, Sue Myrick, won.
That a look at N.C.
Other State may be different, of course.
Time togo, enjoy your day!
“responsible Conservative†label…
I Love it!
AJ,
>The only thing there to watch is the ‘throw the bums out’
>sentiment, which could propel Hoffman into the winner’s circle.
>The nation is fed up with the Political Industrial Complex which
>tells the average people what to think, and then goes on to
>insult their judgement when they dare to disagree.
Nope.
See the following quote from Pollster Scott Rasmussen on what Republicans have to do in order to win:
http://frontpagemag.com/2009/11/03/the-rights-resurrection-by-peter-collier/
Preparing for a possible but far from certain Hoffman victory (and echoing the old Communist principle of “maximizing the contradictions,â€) [DNC Chairman and outgoing Virginia governor Tim] Kaine had a new story line ready for such an outcome. It wouldn’t be so bad because it would represent a further purge of the moderates from the Republican Party, which soon will definitively have been taken over by the dread Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh, Lynn Cheney, and other extremist mullahs. A Hoffman victory would foreshadow, Kaine grimly chortled, other conservative/moderate bloodlettings in next year’s Republican primaries for the Florida Senate and Texas Governor nominations. It would mean that a brutal cell division promoted by the Palinites was shrinking the Republican Party to such insignificance that in 2012 it would face a Goldwater-like catastrophe.
Pollster Scott Rasmussen has shown how shallow this analysis is and how vain the hopes behind it. Republican voters do indeed overwhelmingly regard themselves as conservative (which is why in NY-23 they rejected the emotionally moist and politically limp Scozzafava, who was for abortion, Obamacare, the Obama stimulus, and the scurvy card check legislation promoted by anti democratic union moguls, and who, immediately after pulling out of the race, embraced her Democratic soul mate Owens and began recording robocalls for his candidacy.) But only slightly more than half of conservative voters see themselves as Republican. This means that to broaden their outreach, Rasmussen points out, Republicans should look to the right. “The sweet spot for Republicans,†Rasmussen concludes, “are core issues that unify conservatives while dividing more moderate voters.†One such issue is obviously Obamacare, which conservatives are united in opposing, and a Republican who supports it, as did the hapless Scozzafava, will drive away more voters than he or she attracts.
Appealing to conservatives, therefore, may be more a growth industry than a death sentence for Republicans, if it is accomplished pragmatically and without creating the death squad mentality that characterizes the left wing of the Democrat Party. There are twice as many conservatives in the country as liberals, Gallup told us last week. And this trend appears to be growing in an era marked by a fetid combination of weakness, narcissim, and unbridled power hunger in the White House. Conservatives, to paraphrase the late Irving Kristol, are liberals and moderates who have been mugged by Obama. And those like Tim Kaine and his MSNBC enablers now trying to create a narrative that will make today’s electoral results look good may ultimately be sorry that they were not more careful in what they wished for.
In so many words AJ, for Republicans to be successful, Republican moderates have to allow no enemies to their Right in the Republican primaries and general elections the way Democrats allow no enemies to their left in Democratic primaries.
That is why Hoffman will win. He was the right most candidate available.
For long term Republican party success, Republican moderates have to be more tolerant of Republican right wingers than they are of Democrats, period, full stop.
Trent,
More conservatives are like me – centrist and independent. That is why ‘conservative’ is the top ideology while the “GOP” is branded as too extreme. Independents outnumber the GOP by far.
You can pretend all you want, but the elections of 2006 and 2008 were damn clear. America preferred liberals over far right conservatives.
That is how bad it got for the far right, and they are still there. As this year’s elections are showing in VA. All ran as moderates.
I would argue for primaries to be open to the party holding it and possible independent voters but not to voters of other parties. The reason for that is there is too much opportunity for mischief when a party is greatly overwhelmed in numbers.
For example, a California primary might see many Democrats choosing to vote in the Republican primary to select an unelectable candidate. I believe Republican primaries should be off limits to Democrats and vice versa. Independents would be welcome in either if I had my say.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELJR-LyRhKg&feature=player_embedded
Pat Caddell says there are FIFTEEN TIMES more absentee ballots in Camden than last year in the presidential election there…
from gatewaypundit
Who is in charge of corruption there? The same people that were in Louisiana, lol!
Congratulations AJ and family! Looks like you have three very good leaders to run your state now!
Now for NY an NY….
Only in a country dumb enough to elect Obama would John McCain be considered far right. This “conservative” freak Doug Hoffman in New York state favours mass immigration – ie the displacement of his own people by colonists. Almost everywhere on earth that means you are far left except America (and, of course, American Mini-Me countries like bankrupt England and Canada).
Also what is ‘conservative’ about this war in Afghanistan, which I believe ALL Republican candidates support? Spreading American values – homosexuality, corporate bailouts, multiculturalism, Hollywood, hip hop, fast food, – to Afghanistan and other places is destructive. It is the antithesis of conservatism everywhere in the world. Conservatives are talking as if Obama is surrendering in Afghanistan when in fact he has radically escalated the war. American ‘conservatives’ live in some fantasy land.