Oct 21 2009

Has Obama Released The African American Vote From The Democrat’s Hold?

Published by at 2:45 pm under 2010 Elections,All General Discussions

There is a truly intriguing poll out today in the VA Governor’s race, with some stunning internals when it comes to the African American vote split between the two parties:

The latest SurveyUSA poll showing Virginia Republican gubernatorial nominee Bob McDonnell with a 19% lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds (which would be the biggest win for any Virginia Governor of either party since 1961) has some interesting internals.  One of the strangest findings is that McDonnell is getting 31% of the African American vote.

Is this possible?  Well, the smart money would say no.  But if you want to construct an argument for SurveyUSA being correct, consider the following:

You can go to RCP to see their take on this data, but I was pondering one of those hidden political shifts that come up from time to time that might also be a factor here.

VA is a southern state, but a very integrated state and DC politics savvy one. We still hold the honor of electing the first and only African American to the Governor’s office. President Obama took this state by storm, in no small part with a wave of support from the African American community.

Being politically savvy (can’t help it this close to DC) it is clear the African American community know full well what would be the message to President Obama and the impact on his initiatives if they went in droves for the GOP candidate. So why are they going in droves to the GOP candidate?

One thing to consider is President Obama has provided the African American community their long fought credibility in national politics. This goal has kept them united behind the Democrats for decades. And who did not shed a tear of pride on Inauguration day when the African American community finally saw themselves complete the long journey from slaves, to second class citizens to acknowledged leaders?

But with that fever broken, how many African Americans now feel more free to vote their self interests versus their racial interests? Are we seeing the African American middle class, who are more conservative than most White liberals, finally free to vote on issues and policies they feel they have more in common with, despite party ID?

It’s possible. Very possible. Most Deeds’ votes are out of party unity, while most McDonnell supporters actually support the man and his positions. If this trend proves true in less than two weeks, I think we will actually see a clear warning sign for the Democrats in 2010 and 2012.

Just something to think about.

Update: More polling results with bad, bad, bad news on independents and African Americans for Democrats:

With independents, who tend to split pretty evenly, the Republican leads 60-31.

Deeds trails 51-42 with women, only leads 68-20 with blacks when Democrats usually receive at least 80% of their votes, and is tied at 44 with voters under 30.

6 responses so far

6 Responses to “Has Obama Released The African American Vote From The Democrat’s Hold?”

  1. gwood says:

    Wow. I think you’re on to something here. If you’re right, AJ, it most certainly is a phenomenon operating somewhere in the psychogical sphere, as opposed to a political one.

    The election of a black man to the office of the presidency could have been a cathartic moment for the black populace, specifically in solidifying in their minds what they had already suspected but hadn’t to date seen actual proof of; they had all heard the words from whites, but had only anecdotally seen the actions that would indicate they are truly accepted now among the majority of whites.

    I have been watching the Rasmussen polls like everyone else, and to me it is interesting that the “strongly approve” has been plummeting. How could this be? Even the formerly strong approvers have to have been totally firm on the socialist agenda Obama promised and is delivering. So if they’re not dropping off because of the issues perhaps the phenomenon you describe among blacks is the answer?

  2. Alert1201 says:

    Good analysis AJ!

    Man, I hope your right.

    It would be the irony of ironies if the first elected black president is the cause of the black populace moving away from lock-step devotion to the democratic party.

  3. crosspatch says:

    News like this isn’t going to help the Democrats much either. I have been saying this for about the past 9 months. Nice to see CNN coming to their senses.

  4. AJ,

    You will see a collapse in Black voter turn out before you will see votes for Republican candidates.

    The total number of black voters will be more important on election day than their Rep vs Dem percentages, IMO.

    This passage from the Public Policy Polling group:

    And while Barack Obama won Virginia by six points last year, the voters planning to turn out this fall supported John McCain by six points, a clear indication that many Democratic voters are just planning to stay at home.

    Tells the real tale here.

    We are going to see 1994 plus disproportionate Republican versus Democratic turn outs.

    That means Democrats down ballot are going to get shelled everywhere but heavily Democratic voting districts.

  5. kathie says:

    Look at this AJ, from FREEREPUBLIC

    He is really bad and was in Iraq.

    Top al-Qaeda operative reported killed (Hindu Kush deer drive!)
    10/21/2009 6:56:22 PM PDT · by milwguy · 8 replies · 109+ views
    dawn ^ | 10/22/2009 | dawn
    PESHAWAR: In the first drone strikes since the Pakistan military began its operation in South Waziristan a top al-Qaeda operative Abu Al-Masri is reported to have been killed in a strike from a US unmanned aircraft. However, conflicting reports earlier suggested that Al-Masri may have been killed preparing suicide jackets in the village of Spalga. Known as Mustafa Al-Yazid, he was urported to have links with Afghan immigrant Najibullah Zazi, whom US authorities arrested in an alleged plot to use homemade backpack bombs, he served three years in an Egyptian prison, in the 1980s, for supposed links to the group…

  6. stevevvs says:

    Those silly “Africans” I wonder, which African Country they were born in?

    There sure are a lot of “African” Americans these days…

    Are there any Blacks born here anymore?