Dec 09 2005

Iran’s Nuclear Game, UPDATE

Published by at 5:52 pm under All General Discussions,Iran

I will be starting a category on Iran and their nuclear brinkmanship since it is clear this problem is only going to escalate. In a recent post I highlighted the Iranian Nuke game and how time was running out for options. I have been exchanging emails with Steve Schippert of ThreatsWatch who has definitely been on this subject for a lot longer than I have and has the detailed knowledge to speak authoritatively.

He has written an update to his response to my post here, which is a must read.

In the RapidRecon entry, I was attempting to calm many who were following the lead of some media sources who were selectively quoting just the ‘a few months’ quote without the additional two-year readiness context. But now it seems the conversation (or lack thereof) has turned to the other extreme: nearly cold silence. Almost lost seems to be that the head of the world’s foremost nuclear watchdog, the UN’s IAEA, still did submit a shockingly (considering the source) short timeline.

That ElBaradei’s assessment, potentially one-fifth that of the NEI, seems to have fallen on deaf ears should be more than a little troubling. Many should be asking precisely where this game-changing assessment was when the five to ten-year estimates were being publicly debated. An estimate of a potential two-year window significantly changes the dynamic and sense of urgency regarding the Iranian Nuclear Crisis.

With Iran’s President making statements like this, one has to wonder if he is bravado is backed up with the knowledge Iran is further along than we know.

Israel called Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad “very dangerous” on Friday after he expressed doubt that the Holocaust occurred and suggested the Jewish state be moved to Europe.

The IAEA missed Iraq’s nuclear program for years until Saddam’s son-in-law defected in 1995. Wonder what they missed this time around? What is also maddening is the IAEA wants to pressure Iran, but keeps trying to pull the ‘big stick’ off the table:

Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the UN nuclear watchdog, who is in Oslo to receive the Nobel peace prize, warned yesterday that a “military solution would be completely counterproductive”. The next months would be crucial, he said.

What is crucial is Iran never come close to having a nulcear weapon.

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