Dec 05 2005

Iran’s Nuclear Game

Published by at 11:09 am under All General Discussions,Iran

Updates at the End

Iran is playing a game with its nuclear program, one that is leading to direct military confrontation with the West. For evidence of Iran’s plan to reconstitute Al Qaeda’s strategic plan to light an anti-West fire in the Muslim streets, one only needs to look at the recent events and which way decisions went. Iran sees itself as the next rallying point for Muslims to rise up and destroy the West’s influence in the region. There is one small problem, though.

It is no secret Iran has been resisting a comprehensive inspection regime of their complete and expanding nuclear program. Here is the Iranian statement recently released on the inspection process, where Iran claims the scope of inspections is now fixed – with no ability to expand to new sites that could be the location for developing weapons.

A reporter asked whether Iran granted access to inspectors of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to Shian and Lavizan military bases, Larijani said that Iranian cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog is in the context of Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and Safeguards Agreement of IAEA.

He said that IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei had called for inspection of the two sites and Iran allowed the Agency’s inspectors to see them.

“We allowed the inspection to show that Iranian nuclear program is transparent. Otherwise, Iran is obliged to accept the IAEA demands within regulations of the Agency.”
“The US methodology of propaganda is that every time the Agency planned to hold talks on Iranian nuclear program, the US came up with new allegations and asked the UN Agency to examine them. Iran will no longer agree to such a practice in the future.”

This is coming out at the same time the head of the UN IAEA is predicting Iran will have nuclear weapons within the coming months. [Hat Tip Drudge]

IAEA chairman Muhammad ElBaradei on Monday confirmed Israel’s assessment that Iran is only a few months away from creating an atomic bomb.

If Teheran indeed resumed its uranium enrichment in other plants, as threatened, it will take it only “a few months” to produce a nuclear bomb, El-Baradei told The Independent.

Iran is counting on the dovish basic instincts of the UN and EU and others to push through any international concerns so they can arm themselves. Again, from Baradai

On the other hand, he warned, any attempt to resolve the crisis by non-diplomatic means would “open a Pandora’s box. There would be efforts to isolate Iran; Iran would retaliate; and at the end of the day you have to go back to the negotiating table to find the solution.”

Absolutely not true. The other option is to take out the nuclear facilities now. Iran may want to retaliate, but it doesn’t have the forces or will to do so. The left is, typically, on the side of the Iranians, who are no doubt providing sanctuary to Al Qaeda operatives. But Iran has already threatened reprisals for even diplomatic pressure – which is why I am convinced they want the confrontation.

Iran’s constitutional watchdog backed up the regime’s threat of tough reprisals if the UN’s nuclear agency refers the Islamic republic to the Security Council, Iran’s state media said.

The report said the hardline Guardians Council approved a law passed by parliament last month that obliges the government to “stop voluntary and non-legally binding measures” related to the country’s disputed nuclear programme if the Iranian case is taken up in New York.

The text does not refer to specific reprisals, but Iran has already said it could refuse to adhere to the additional protocol of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which gives increased inspection powers to the International Atomic Energy Agency, according to AFP.

The stupidity of the Iran’s Mad Mullah’s and their current egomaniacal leader is seen in their ‘logic’. They claim:

Iran insists it only wants to make electricity and that fuel cycle work is a “right” for any signatory of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

If it is simply for electricity, then inspections are no big deal whatsoever. None. The bolder Iran gets, the safer it is to assume they have a nuclear weapon. They probably understand how to play poker to some degree. I doubt they would repeat Saddam’s mistake and try and bluff us holding nothing.

And indications are they have something they are hiding. Here is a biography on someone who has exposed to the general public more and more sites and capabilities in Iran. I have no idea to the veracity of these claims. I suspect they have some basis. But the history of Iranian progress, if accurate, shows a pattern of proceeding head on, no matter what the implications:

The international concerns about Iran’s nuclear weapons program has largely arisen from Jafarzadeh’s stunning revelations about 7 major previously secret nuclear sites, including the sites in Natanz, Arak, Karaj, Ab-Ali, and Tehran.

Jafarzadeh revealed the existence of Natanz uranium enrichment facility, and Arak’s heavy water facility in August 2002, Ab-Ali centrifuge testing facility near Tehran in February 2003, two additional nuclear sites near Karaj in May 2003, and two other new nuclear sites in Kolahdouz military complex in Tehran, and Ardekan in July 2003. He unveiled the details of Iran’s development of bio-weapons in May 2003, and had previously provided valuable information about the Shahab-3 medium range missile.

On April 27, 2004, Jafarzadeh revealed information that Iran, using some 400 nuclear experts, is now running a secret nuclear weapons program supervised by the military and the Supreme Leader parallel to their overt nuclear energy program. Jafarzadeh had previously unveiled in March, a secret meeting held earlier by Iran’s senior officials where they decided to speed up their nuclear weapons program, while faking cooperation with the IAEA.

March 24, 2005, Jafarzadeh revealed that Iran has actually built a secret underground facility in Tehran’s Parchin military complex where activities related to laser enrichment is carried out.

The useful idiots on the left are doing their part. For some insane reason they cannot wait to see a nuclear armed Iran to offset the evils of the West. The West being a societal structure that simply shuns their childish views on how to live a good life without being beholden to the state for everything. But here they are, aligned with Islamic zealots who praise the senseless killing of infidels like the animals we are supposed to be:

On the basis of what has transpired since these opinions reached print, one can conclude that the United States has been in the deadly business of dominating the world—and at this juncture targeting Iraq, Iran and Syria, three countries that have dared to differ with Washington’s whims and wants.

U.S. belligerence against other nations can take many forms. These include economic and trade sanctions, diplomatic containment, orchestrating an environment of isolation, spreading fabricated propaganda and outright lies, intruding into air space, carrying out acts of sabotage, buying off individuals to commit acts of treason, bribing other governments to take Washington’s side, or carrying out naked acts of aggression and war to subvert or overthrow a government.

In the language of the U.S. government, all these acts are committed under the cover of spreading “American democracy.” And now an old, all-too-familiar argument is being resurrected to bring countries into line with U.S. plans to dominate the Middle East: that Iran cannot be “trusted” and must be “thwarted” in its plans to develop nuclear energy.

To deny Iran or any other country from “researching, developing and producing nuclear energy for peaceful purposes” is a violation of the right of not only Iran, but other nations, as is embodied in the fourth paragraph of the Nuclear Non-Prolif eration Treaty. The NPT is administered by the International Atomic Energy Agency, which is currently headed by Mohammed ElBaradei.

The NPT also calls for countries to be transparent so as to show their neighbors and the world they are not using this deadly technology for their own version of world domination.

I only post the left’s crazy rants so we can all agree to ignore them and get onto the bigger problem. Here is the view of things from the Guardian – not known for being a pro US news outlet. Recall that these conclusions are in tandem with Baradei’s clear conclusion Iran will have a nuclear bomb within months:

British diplomats last month told the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that documents held by Iran suggest the government intends to manufacture nuclear warheads.

Talks with the European Union on the status of Iran’s nuclear programme broke down in August after Tehran resumed uranium conversion, a first step towards producing reactor-grade fuel.

The IAEA has asked Iran to halt its uranium enrichment programme, which can turn converted uranium into either reactor-grade or weapons-grade material.

But despite Tehran putting the programme on hold, Iran’s powerful Guardian Council ruled on Saturday that enrichment should go ahead regardless of international pressure.

Nuclear weapons residing only 100’s of miles away from our forces in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Kuwait is not going to lead to a stable situation. In fact it will lead to war through some path. It is clear we have only one choice, to address this on a time table, terms, and conditions which benefit us and not the Mad Mullahs of Iran.

And we are running out of time on many fronts. Iran is investing in beefing up their defenses (which again seems to be an indication they are planning for war, not the peaceful generation of electricity):

Israel on Sunday lambasted Russia over the sale of anti-missile systems to arch-enemy Iran, the latest round of what the local press has dubbed the “Iranian-Israeli arms race.”

Iran, already under intense international pressure over its nuclear activities, has reportedly bought 29 mobile air defence systems from Moscow in a deal worth more than 700 million dollars.

And that is not all. Iran is making progress on its delivery systems for nuclear warheads:

Tehran’s rapid progress on its ballistic missile programme is a major cause for concern in the international community. Israel’s own fears were heightened in October when Iran’s hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said the Jewish state must be “wiped off the map”.

Iran has been constantly upgrading the Shahab-3 missile, a single-stage device that is believed to be based on a North Korean design and have a range of at least 2,000 kilometres (1,280 miles) — meaning that arch-enemy Israel and US bases in the region are well within range.

Again, in another sign of preparing to face down the West, we see collusion between Iran and North Korea with technology transfers and meddling in the peaceful resolution of these power mad leaders with very, very dangerous weapons.

It may not be an axis of evil, but under the old truism that my enemy’s enemy is my friend, Tehran is making overtures to Pyongyang in an attempt to share a bit of nuclear knowledge, as well as the burden of the West’s animosity. According to information SPIEGEL has obtained from western intelligence sources, the Iranian government is said to have offered North Korea an economic aid package in exchange for continuing to cooperate on the development of nuclear-tipped missiles.

A high-ranking Iranian emissary is reported to have traveled to Pyongyang in October to offer the North Korean regime massive oil and gas supplies. The extreme energy shortages in North Korea had forced the regime to consider giving in to US pressure to abandon its nuclear weapons program. Earlier this month, negotiations between North and South Korea, the US, Russia, China and Japan had addressed the possibility that North Korea may give up its nuclear ambitions in exchange for energy assistance and other benefits. However, the offer from Tehran would give Kim Jong II the breathing room to negotiate better conditions to the deal.

The region is on edge, with Israel poised to step in. From an earlier link:

In a sign of the escalating tension over the issue, the former Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu told Israel’s Maariv newspaper that he would consider a pre-emptive strike against Iranian nuclear facilities if elected leader.

I said up front there was one problem with the Iranian’s trying to start a revolt in the Muslim street. In the ME the Muslim street is primarily Arab. We cannot allow Israel to try and take on the responsibility for the West or the Arabs. The reason Iran could easily fail to ignite support is their Persian background. There is more distrust than brotherhood between Iran and its Arab neighbors.

What we need to do is have work a solution where nuclear power is available to the ME, but the processing of fuel is done by the prime nuclear powers. Fuel processing and spent fuel disposal are the major keys to controlling the peaceful use of nuclear energy. The left is so anti-nuclear energy (unless it is in the hands of our enemies) that we sometimes forget there is a middle ground here.

We need an ME based agreement to take out the Iranian processing plants (and reactors unless they agree to behave) in return for nuclear power stations with fuel from Russia, the US, etc. Isolate the Persians from the Arabs. Give the Arabs more reasons to modernize their societies in a safe and controlled manner.


The Threats Watch site has a lot more on this story and how time is running out.

Expressing doubts about the path of diplomatic negotiations with Iran, Israel’s intelligence head, Major-General Aharon Zeevi Farkash, told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that time was short according to his intelligence information.


The US Army agrees has a report out showing that an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear sites is problematic at best.

Geopolitical limitations render Israel’s air force militarily incapable of halting Iran’s nuclear weapons program according to a new report published the by U.S. Army War College.

The report asserts Israel lacks the military capability to locate and destroy Iranian nuclear assets. The report said the Israel Air Force cannot operate at such long distances from its bases.

The article goes on to list the multitude of challenges the Israelis would need to overcome.


Michelle Malkin, the gracious lady that she is, posted to this on her Winds of War link covering a full spectrum of posts on our national challenges around the world. I would have called it the “Blogs of War”, but then I have zippo taste regarding these things. Please check out all the posts at Michelle’s Winds of War post.


Mark Coffey adds some more to the discussion with another timely and insightful article out on the subject.


Mac Ranger has more on bunker busting bombs possibly being sold to Israel.


Threat Watch (which I just ran into a couple of days ago) has a more accurate potrayal of the time line to a nuclear weapon from Natanz. While their estimate may be 2 years, not 3 months, the problem I see is it knowing where they are. While Threat Watch is basically correct, the question depend on what scenario leads to what estimate as realistic. This article lends me to believe the plant may be farther along and the estimate could be well under 2 years.

Wikipedia has a good rundown of the history of the effort here.

14 responses so far

14 Responses to “Iran’s Nuclear Game”

  1. Iran Could Have Atomic Bomb in Months

    IAEA chairman Muhammad ElBaradei on Monday confirmed Israel’s assessment that Iran is only a few months away from creating an atomic bomb.
    “If Teheran indeed resumes its uranium enrichment in other plants, as threatened, it will take it only sev…

  2. Nukes Cannot Stand in Iran

    Back in my child rearing days I had a code that I lived by. If a child should draw a line in the sand and dare you to cross it, “Thou shalt not be disappointed”.

  3. Sands through the hourglass

    And once Iran perfects its waste processing capabilities, can you imagine an Iran with 20 nuclear plants? Tick tick tick…

  4. Iran Months Away From Nukes!

    Iran must not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons. They are a terrorist nation that would not think twice about using them against Israel or U.S. interests. They have vowed to sell them to other countries and could even offer them to Al Qaeda. If t…

  5. Decision '08 says:

    What’s To Be Done About Iran?

    We have probably missed the boat on preventing North Korea from getting the bomb, though we have, of course, succeeded in preventing the maniacal Saddam Hussein from fulfilling his nuclear ambitions. Now, we face the possibility that the third wheel …

  6. BIGDOG says:

    Thats why God gave us brains, to invent the bunker buster bombs. He delivers a heavy payload….hehehehe

    Seriously. Israel wont wait for anyone to interfere they will take out Iraq sites by March i predict. Well thats because i believe what the PM said.

  7. BIGDOG says:

    Ooops i’m sorry i meant Irans sites…DOH!!!!

  8. Israel-Iran War?

    Frightening stuff. Israel already stated it would not and could not tolerate nuclear weapons in Iran. Now, Iran is only a few months away. Will we see a preemptive strike by Israel? Would that lead to a wider war between

  9. nar9350 says:

    I’m glad someone else is begining to worry about the Mad Mullahs of Iran . The Mullahs are a strategic link in the GWOT AKA Islamofascism.

    See this related discussion over at Dean’s World on trying to find fault with our intel all the while our enemy could be preparing to kick us in the “as-” again.


    For those interested in real news on, about, and from Iran, Regime Change Iran is a must read. See this comment.


    HT Dr. Zin of Regime Change Iran

    Many know I’ve previously “spammed” many a blog and mailbox with this meme. The light of the free world if shone of the Mad Mullahs of Iran will melt them just like water did the wicked witch of the East in the Wizard of OZ.

    After all this is a war of ideologies that will ultimately be won by that ideology which is superior in providing for the needs and wants of free men and women. We must engage in this war of information. We must fight fire with fire.

    Here’s more evidence of how the “truth” is a very powerful weapon that despotic regimes cringe from and seek to block in all manner.

    Please help Dr. Zin in his mission and repost significant items from his blog so that those in Iran can read news/info that they wouldn’t otherwise see.


    Read More


    and here’s a few more interesting recent posts:

    Here ,
    Here , and

  10. nar9350 says:

    Dr. Zin’s site “Regime Change Iran seems to be frozen at the moment. The links above are good. Hopefully his server will come up shortly.

    Here’s the link to his blog.

  11. The “a few months” quote from ElBaradei is selectively lifted by The Jarusalem Post (where I first read it) and others out of context from the original UK Independent interview.

    ElBaradei thinks Iran would be “a few months” away from nuclear weapons capabilities once Natanz comes online, which the IAEA believes is about 2 years out.

    That’s about 2 years from having the material. Then there’s the milling of the HEU(Highly Enriched Uranium) into the hemispherical form, etc. Even if they test it ‘in the field’ (ie Port Long Beach or anywhere else beyond Iranian testing grounds), we’re looking at about 3 years. Now that’s a far cry from the National Intelligence Estimate that inexplicably suggests ten or more years, but “a few months” it is not. Please see here:

    ThreatsWatch.Org: RapidRecon: Iran not “a few months” from Nuclear Weapons

    If you mistakenly think I sound like an IAEA or Iran apologist, please see here and/or here.

    I want them stopped now. But allowing ourselves to hyperventilate on an out of context quote when there is plenty in-context to argue, in the long run, does the cause of stopping the Iranian nuclear program no good.

    Thought you’d appreciate the original article for your own information.


  12. The Council Has Spoken

    This is my first time participating in the Watcher’s Council vote and I have been very impressed by the quality of the blog posts that were nominated. There are some wonderful writers in the blogosphere and never enough time to

  13. […] The Watcher’s Council has announced its picks for the most outstanding posts of the preceding week. This week the winning Council post was The Sundries Shack’s post, “ ‘…Have a Great Time Dieing in the War. From, Miguel.’”. This second place post was The Strata-Sphere’s post, “Iran’s Nuclear Game”. […]

  14. […] Here are are the winners of the December 9th contest: Council links “…Have a Great Time Dieing in the War. From, Miguel.” – The Sundries Shack Iran’s Nuclear Game – The Strata-Sphere […]