Tag Archive 'Poll'

Oct 30 2008

Poll Schocker – McCain and Obama Tied In Pennsylvania

It seems those rumors of Obama being in trouble in PA might very well be true: Obama 47, McCain 43, Undecided 9 Dates conducted: Oct. 27-28. Error margin: 4 points. Given the margin of error this is a statistical tie.

5 responses so far

Oct 15 2008

The “Traditional” Turnout Model Is Turning On Obama

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America! Here’s the key to this presidential election – turnout! Has Governor Palin ignited a quietly determined grass roots anti-DC wave? If you look at her crowds she gets on the stump the answer is ‘yes‘ – they rival Obama’s. If you look at the viewership […]

21 responses so far

Oct 14 2008

Garbage In, Garbage Out

The hysterically looney CBS News/NY Times poll shows why math is not for everyone. As a political veteran said recently the public doesn’t have wild gyrations in mood – especially not in a week.  The tell tale bogus factor in this poll is where they put all their big shift, and it is the views […]

20 responses so far

Oct 06 2008

Some Scary Polls Out For O-Bomba

Ok, color me totally confused here. Two left leaning (and I mean they tilt sideways) polls have come out showing a shrinking Obama lead. First is the CBS News Poll showing Obama losing half his lead 5 days, going from a +9 (49-40) to a plus +4 (47-43) – that is a statistical tie (MoE […]

13 responses so far

Sep 30 2008

Some Rare Bad Poll News For Obama

While all the national and state polls out since the first presidential candidate debate have been going Obama’s way, one poll out today is bucking the trend. And I am really surprised at which poll it is – the ABC News/Washington Post poll from after the debate. As with all polls it is more important […]

11 responses so far

Sep 29 2008

Congress Tops Blame For Bailout Mess, 10 Times The Blame On Bush

Addendum: Turns out it was a Bill O’Reilly internet poll. Oh, well … – end update We caught a glimpse of a stunning poll on The O’Reilly Factor.  O’Reilly briefly showed a poll of who Americans blamed for the Financial Crisis.  The Democrat led Congress took top spot for the blame with something like 56% […]

17 responses so far

Sep 24 2008

Now That Is One Skewed Poll!

The Washington Post/ABC News poll out showing Obama with a 9 point lead (52-43) illustrates my point about bad sampling techniques. There straight party sample breaks down 38% Dem, 28% Rep and 29% Ind. When Indies are asked which way they lean the sample goes 54% Dem, 38% Rep and 7% Ind. Is anyone surprised […]

10 responses so far

Sep 23 2008

Another Poll Conundrum – Clinton Supporters Not Moving To Obama

Just to add fuel to the fire I wrote about this morning, there is a new poll out showing Obama is not gaining support among Clinton supporters – yet somehow he still leads in the national polls? Highly unlikely.

4 responses so far

Sep 22 2008

Poll Prediction: Today Gallup Will Show A Tanking Obama

  Major Update – I was wrong, Obama holding at +4.  My timing could be off, but I doubt it.  Cheers, AJStrata Gallup showed a resurgent Obama over the past few days shooting out to a 6 point lead on Saturday, 50-44%. Yesterday, though, that lead dropped two points (or 30%). All during this period […]

9 responses so far

Sep 22 2008

Poll Stunner! McCain-Palin Close 34 Point Gap On Women’s Issues

OK this is the biggest poll shocker I have seen since the Palin selection for VP: Since picking Sarah Palin as his running mate, John McCain has obliterated what had been a 34-percentage-point deficit in a poll of likely women voters on the question of which candidate has a “better understanding of women and what is important” to them. […]

6 responses so far

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