Apr 07 2008
Sadr Will Surrender – Dems And SurrenderMedia Screw Up Again
Major Update: It seems the UK news media, which is not as vested in a US defeat in Iraq as our American SurrenderMedia, has reported on the pending victory for Maliki against Sadr:
From The Times
April 7, 2008
Iraq: Al-Mahdi army offers to lay down its armsIraq’s largest and most dangerous militia, the Mahdi Army, will disband voluntarily if leading Shia scholars advise its leader to do so, officials said today, in a dramatic move that could quell much of the fighting in the country.
Aides to Hojetoleslam Moqtada al-Sadr, who is under mounting political and military pressure, said that the militia chief would send delegations to Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, a moderate religious leader in Najaf, and to senior clerics in Qom in Iran to consult on whether he should stand down his 60,000-strong militia.
The sudden announcement came as Lieutenant-General David Petraeus, Commander of US Forces in Iraq, starts two days of testimony to Congress on the success of America’s troop “surgeâ€.
…
The position of Hojetoleslam al-Sadr, whose fighters had fought government forces to a standstill in Basra, was looking increasingly precarious today. His erstwhile ally, Nouri al-Maliki, the Shia Prime Minister, who led the Basra crackdown personally, saw his popular support bolstered by his tough stance on lawless militias.
Despite the inconclusive results of his Basra offensive, Mr al-Maliki has refused to back down and this weekend stitched together a rare consensus of Kurds, Sunnis and Shias to back a draft law banning any party that maintains a militia from running in future elections.
A massive American and Iraqi security presence had ringed the area, with police and soldiers guarding every exit as many people here predicted a final, bloody showdown with the Mahdi Army, which appeared to be losing popular support.
Those poor Surrendercrats on The Hill cannot lose for winning. It seems we have a victory in Iraq over the Mahdi Militias, to go with the victory over al-Qaeda. And we have seen in past months legislation passed that represents major progress in creating an integrated Iraq across the various factions, and we have new Iraqi elections coming. Only someone in serious denial would see all this as a defeat. Maybe they will come out with some wild conspiracy about how this is a US plot run by VP Cheney to take over the world.
What is clear is those poor, doom & gloom democrats won’t see the second coming of Vietnam after all. This was THE DEMOCRAT’s Tet Offensive – it was the terrorists and insurgents who buckled under the surge of Iraqi and US forces, and it was the Dems who predicted that they would win the day. Now the Dems will reap the rewards of their obsessive defeatism – most likely at the polls in November. They are no longer credible on national security. – end update
Well, that did not take long. I barely got my previous post finished on how bad a week the Surrendercrats are going to have when old “Mookie” al-Sadr comes out in a stunning announcement and says he will disband his Mahdi Militia if the central Shia council tells him to:
raqi Shi’ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr will disband his Mehdi Army militia if top Shi’ite clerics including Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani order him to do so, a senior Sadr aide told Reuters on Monday.
Aide Hassan Zargani told Reuters that Sadr had told his representatives in both the holy Iraqi city of Najaf and also the Iranian city of Qom to ask top Shi’ite religious leaders for advice on whether to dissolve the militia.
“If they order the Mehdi Army to disband, Moqtada al-Sadr and the Sadr movement will obey the orders of the religious leaders,” said Zargani, who was speaking from Iran.
As I noted previously the Shia council apparently is already on board with the disarming of the Sadr’s militia since they were aligned with Maliki on exiling anyone who has militia’s from political office:
Parliament was also planning to isolate al-Mahdi Army by drafting a Bill banning parties that maintain militias from running for office. It was backed by a rare alliance of Shia, Sunni and Kurdish parties, although several of the parties involved run militias themselves.
Mr al-Maliki’s main backer in Government, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, has its own militia, the Badr Brigades, which has often fought the more powerful al-Mahdi Army. “We want the Sadrists to disband al-Mahdi Army. Just freezing it is no longer acceptable,†an adviser to Mr al-Maliki said. “The new election law will prevent any party that has weapons or runs a militia from contesting elections.â€
And Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani has been pretty clear about the militia’s as well:
Iraq’s national security adviser has said that the country’s most senior Shia cleric supports a government attempt to disarm the country’s sectarian militias.
Mowaffaq al-Rubaie said he had secured Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani’s support during a meeting in the city of Najaf on Wednesday.
The Shia clergyman gave his assent as Iraq’s government pushed ahead with a plan that will attempt to stablise Baghdad, the country’s capital, by disarming Shia and Sunni militias.
Sadr is grasping for a face saving way out of the mess he is in. He thought he could resist the central government and is learning he is not gaining support, but losing it at a stunning rate. So he must sue for peace now, and will use the council as his cover to surrender.
Which leaves the Surrendercrats and SurrenderMedia in a fine pickle as they try and spin the situation in Iraq as a pending failure – after a year of incredible successes. The only chance they had to paint Iraq as out of control was the Shia militias. al-Qaeda has been beaten severely in the last year and is trying to hold onto their last foothold in the north – which won’t be possible. And now Sadr has basically pulled the rug out from the Surrendercrats by quitting the ‘civil war’.
What is a defeatist democrat to do when all their allies in the insurgency and terrorist camps keep losing? My suggestion is to eat their crow with humility and respect for their betters, who showed how America can attain victory in Iraq and cripple al-Qaeda in the process. Will they admit their mistakes? Hell no – they will make up pure fantasies and try and promote the idea they were never wrong and it was them who fixed Iraq by trying to lose it to our enemies. If you want comedy, Congress will be the place to watch this week.
This is a stunning victory for Maliki – it completely vindicates his push to strike out at the Sadr and the Mahdi army. To think that the Mahdi Army may disband after little more than 1 week of fighting and some talk – astounding!
I’ve been thinking about some of the criticism of Maliki’s move from the American side – not enough planning, too impulsive – all true. However, the American criticism ignores the benefits of moving that rapidly – Sadr was caught completely offguard and unprepared. The Mahdi army’s performance showed this; they fought decently till their ammunition ran low, but there were no resources available to sustain them for the long haul, and with the border closed the Iranian connection was shut down.
In a country where everyone spies and informs on everyone else, there are no secrets. So the only way to launch a surprise operation is to do it suddenly and with little advance planning. I think the criticism of Maliki has missed this point, but his success shows how successful this strategy can be in those circumstances.
4 years to defeat Al Qaeda – 2 weeks to defeat the Mahdi army. Amazing!
The other good thing about this is that the Mahdi army was made up of locals. They were a dangerous gang, but they were never the nihilistic butchers that Al Qaeda was. (meaning that they never blew up women and children just for the fun of seeing them die) This means that Maliki can take a conciliatory attitude towards ex-members and reintegrate them into the Iraqi mainstream; pardons for anyone who lays down their arms, etc. It’s well worth it to be rid of the militia – and since this is the biggest one, once it is gone the other militias (such as the Badr brigade) can also be disbanded.
The future of Iraq is looking better today than it has for a long, long time.
WWS,
I would not put much credence in the ‘lack of planning’ argument. The groups inside Iraq moved too fast to isolate Sadr to not have set up a plan for how to deal with Sadr if he refused. My guess is if Sadr did not comply the isolation step was already worked out. And I would bet the face saving tactic of getting the Shia council to dictate is stand down was too.
Things are not just done, we just see them as surprises since we do not see the planning. Heck, just moving the Iraqi forces should have been seen and heard about for any reporter paying attention.
This was more orchestrated than you think. And its timing with Petraeus’ testimony is no coincidence.
AJStrata
If the JAM is disbanded, I would expect to see the formation of a Hezbollah (possibly with that very name) militia in Iraq and supported by Iran just as Iran has done in Lebanon. Remember that the name of the “students” that took power in Iran after the Shah left also called themselves Hezbollah (the party of God).
WWS,
I also want to note your assessment (and Crosspatch’s) are right. Any elements out of Sadr’s control can now be isolated and addressed. They will naturally go towards being more violent – which is a green light for the Iraqis to take the gloves off.
AJStrata
Very good point about how this was timed with the Petraus report – I hadn’t considered that. Of course that makes it a very high risk & gutsy call. But no one ever wins a war without making a gutsy call.
Much talk has been made of “tipping points” – this may well be the biggest tipping point in Iraq since the Awakening began to show results. If the Mahdi army goes, the rest of the militias go, and the government will finally gain control of the entire country. (Basra, for example, has never been under this government’s control, thanks to the Brits)
This post rather stuns me. I just read an article in the Washington Post (I think) that tells of the anger of Sadr supporters against other Shia parties who they see as traitors. It left the strong impression that things were going to get much worse because of Maliki’s push against the Mahdi army. But I did notice the article was told entirely from the Sadr supporter viewpoint. This post has given me some hope after a week of deep concern.
I’m sorry, for some reason, I can’t see “THECENTERISABUNGHOLE”/N(W)orm/Ken(ker)/”Bootlicker”/”TRUTHISHALF-BAKED” posting on this thread anywhere?
YOO HOO!
YOO HOO!
Hey Anti-American/Pro-Jihadi Leftist Democratic Traitor Nutbag, WHERE ARE YOU???
so if we have won in such a dramatic fashion why will we have more people in-country when the 20% troop escalation ends, than when it began? if you were honest you would admit, instead of making “up pure fantasies” that we are no closer to leaving iraq…or even getting down to a south korean like force…than we were a year ago. that means getting ever closer to borrowing three trillion dollars from china. bin laden has always said the way to beat us is economically…please explain how giving him exactly what he wants amounts to victory? why is it that you are interested in aiding and abbetting the enemy…who by the way is al queda not al-sadr and the shia. they did not fly planes into our buildings. nor by the way did al-queda in iraq. the al queda who did is resurgent in other parts of the middle-east. how exactly does that equate to victory? and in addition you completely ignored that iran probably helped broker your so-called truce. how does a strengthened position for iran across a large portion of iraq add up to a victory on our part? i don’t remember giving iran an additional ally in the region being part of the authorization for force.
but your pom poms are very nice. sis boom bah.
Liwa’ al-Sumaysim, of the Sadr Movement, told al-Zaman that the Sadrists did not accept the authority of the National Security Council to issue such an ultimatum. He said that although the Sadrists do not believe in deploying militias for political purposes, the Mahdi Army was created because the Iraqi government is not providing security to neighborhoods, and that has not changed. When al-Zaman asked Sumaysim what would happen if the Sadrists were excluded from the elections, he replied that the Sadr Movement reserved the right to take up arms against the Occupier.
Dissembling Dale won’t tell you that Maliki’s militia loyalists were trained by Iranian government adjuncts Bush has accused of being “terroristic” so it’s win-win for Iran either way.
Sumaysim said that all the parties making this demand have their own militias, and he is more or less correct. The Kurds are not going to disband their Peshmerga paramilitary, which they have gotten recognized as the national guard of Kurdistan. ISCI is not going to disarm the Badr Corps, which has been infiltrated into the army and provincial police. Etc., etc. The Sadrists are a little unlikely to volunteer to be the only ones to disarm.
Tha last paragraph reflects Juan Cole’s assessment verbatim,not necessarily my own.
“Borrowing from China” must be a Howard Dean mandated talking point. I hear this BS so often it’s becoming like a bad Mentos jingle in my head. Note to lefties…the only Americans of note “borrowing from the Chinese” were the Gore/Clinton administration. And what a return they got!
um…left by 75…where do you think 7.7 trillion of bush deficit spending is coming from?
Wow, how did you manage that little sleight of hand?
You had to sign in as two different “personalities” of your multi-rectal Sock-Puppet: “N(W)orm” and “TRUTHISHALF-BAKED”!
Can the “THECENTERISABUNGHOLE” and “Ken(ker)” be far behind? No pun intended….
Nice, two Anti-American/Pro-Jihadi Lefist Democratic Traitor Nutbags in the same thread, nice….my head is ready to explode from the smell of Fear and Surrender in the air….
Remember, Surrendercrats like you are born with Reflexive Surrender Syndrome, it kicks automatically when anyone even raises their voice to you, or says “bad words” to you and your feelings get hurt.
You immediately jack-knife your body in two, duct-tape your own wrists to your ankles, roll over and “surrender” to your attackers.
Its kind of pathetic actually, but you all are not well mentally anyway, so I’m not surprised its your first surrender instinct.
Ah well, you have to live with your pathologies and treason, not me; enjoy!
Ah,
Juan Cole again and again and again.
Why not quote Democratic Underground or Cindy Sheehan?
—————-
Norm,
Are you under the assumption that the surge ‘began’ when Congress voted the funds in January 2007? Or, perhaps one might want to consider the surge ‘beginning’ when General Petraeus took command in March 2007.
Right now we have 155,000 Americans in Iraq. Down from a height of 171,000 Americans in October 2007.
In January 2007 we had 132,000 Americans in Iraq
In March 2007 we had 142,000 Americans in Iraq
When the actual surge initiated (June 2007) we had 157,000 Americans in Iraq
Thus, from a period in which there is a standard troop rotation (January 2007) we are at a 117%. So, you are right in a way. However, is a 17% growth (23,000 soldiers and Marines) a devastating surge when the Army has grown by 80,000 troops and the Marine Corps by 25,000 since the GWOT began? And we are at a growth of 9% (13,000 soldiers and Marines) from the actual initiation of the surge.
However, we still have some units returning from the surge – as late as July. It took months to ‘surge’; it will take months to ‘draw down’. And, yes I know the media is yakking about General Petraeus requesting that some of the growth remain. I will wait to hear from Petraeus, and I will respect his opinion. The NYT and Juan Cole have been far too wrong far too many times to consider them sources.
By the way, it was a very good thing for Iraq to prove it could act on its own. Not perfect, but the operation seems to have gone well.
Dale,
The libs on the left know this is a sea change event. The polls will turn on them so fast and they know it will happen. Once victory is achieved in Iraq all the doom and gloomers will be shunned for the rest of human history. It sucks being that wrong, but they were THAT wrong!
Tha last paragraph reflects Juan Cole’s assessment verbatim,not necessarily my own.
Left by truthhard2take on April 7th, 2008
Ah, JUAN COLE?
You mean the so-called “Professor”, Anti-American, Anti-Semitic, Pro-Jihadi, Pro-Shiite Thugocracy of Iran, Convert to Bahai’ism, Lover of Sadr, BDS-Afflicted Juan Cole?
THAT Juan Cole?
BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHH!
This is an Anti-American/Anti-Semitic Pro-Shiite Bahai’i Nut, who has been in the thrall of the Ayotallah’s of Iran and Sadr himself since the invasion began.
He sucks up to the Ayotallah’s because he thinks if he spouts his Anti-American-Anti-Semitic-Anti-Bush crap, the Ayotallahs will take it easy on his fellow Bahai’i’s; I think personally, he’s converted from Bahai’ism to Ithna-Asheri Usuli Shiitism, and is practicing “Taqiyah”; but being the complete ignoramous that you, as all good Anti-American/Pro-Jihadi Leftists are, you wouldn’t know what any of that means, you just parrot the Anti-American Talking Points you download every day from Truthout, DU, Daily Kos-omac and Moveon.org!
nice performance dale…a bunch of personal attacks and absolutely zero substance. clearly this is the place for quality discourse.
Once victory is achieved in Iraq all the doom and gloomers will be shunned for the rest of human history. It sucks being that wrong, but they were THAT wrong!
Left by AJStrata on April 7th, 2008
AJ: frankly, you’ve been on the cutting edge of this on the Blogosphere, and have been proven right every time, and the Nuts are continuously wrong, must suck to be them!
Normally, idiots at the bottom of a big old pit that they dug themselves, stop digging when they realize its over there heads.
These clowns, go out and buy their own shovel, did their own hole, crawl in, dig furiously some more, then pull the dirt in on top of themselves, and just for good measure, because they’re all Masochists, they ask people to defecate on top of them while they’re in the hole!
And they expect us to treat them seriously!
Definition:
Zealot: he who having forgotten his purpose, redoubles his effort!
Remind you of anyone AJ??
Try: “TRUTHISHALF-BAKED”, and all his Sock Puppets!
nice performance dale…a bunch of personal attacks and absolutely zero substance. clearly this is the place for quality discourse.
Left by norm on April 7th, 2008
Ah, ALL TRUTH by the way, if you can’t take it, go to a mirror, look at yourself, and talk to “TRUTHISHALF-BAKED”, he’s your Sock Puppet anyhow!
Ah, if you can disprove anything I wrote above, I’m waiting…..chirp….chirp….chirp!
You can’t, because it’s all True!
I rest my case!
aj…how does a shia on shia truce equate to a sea-change event in a war that i thought was against al queda?