Jun 06 2007
America Prefers The Status Quo?
I admit I missed the fact Scott Rassmussen did ask the question I wanted to see. He did ask whether the nation would prefer the status quo over the compromise:
Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters prefer no bill over the Senate bill. Just 32% prefer the legislative compromise over inaction.
Now how many people are naive enough to think the opposition to the bill is not a 50-50 mix of far right and far left? It is sadly laughable, but from what I am seeing the immigration hypochondriacs think the right and center are against the Bill and the left is for it. Which is of course silly. The far right is opposed to this bill and would prefer nothing because they cannot abide illegal immigrants getting legal status after fines, back taxes and background checks (not to mention you have to come forward). The far left, the real amnesty-open borders fringe, oppose this bill because it takes away the path to citizenship, has the one strike-your-out clause, and does not make long time illegal aliens immediate citizens.
This ain’t rocket science folks. Those 49% who would rather live with the status quo than pass these good changes are the far right and far left. I would wager that 49% is 25% far right and 25% far left. KOs readers and Malkin readers aligned in common cause. DU’ers and Freepers who would saddle this country with the same mess we have now before allowing the changes in this bill. Clearly, to support this bill you cannot be on either political fringe – by definition.
So that 32% who would rather have this bill than nothing, they represent those of us who decide who wins elections. That 32% is not buying into the far left or right zero sum game. Do the Immigration hypochondriacs REALLY believe the only supporters are far lefties? Do they really think that they will not pay a price for their attempts to leave the status quo mess in place? Hey, be my guest. Go ahead and assume the 32% is not critical to either party’s future electorial successes. I dare you. And Scott, you can prove me wrong by just making public the internals on that one number. I betcha it is 50-50 dem-rep or lib-con. For those who need emphasis regarding what is at stake let me do some math: 25+32 = 57%. Whoever gets the lion share of the blame for foiling the wishes of that 32% could alienate them for years to come.
Addendum: BTW, Rasmussen confirms my contention that the conservative camp is made up of people who support the entire bill and those who oppose the guest worker provisions:
From the beginning, the President and most other Beltway politicians have misunderstood the public debate over immigration. The initial discussions in Washington implied a debate that was either pro-immigration or anti-immigration. Those who favored some form of legalization or earned citizenship were pictured in official Washington as pro-immigrant while those who favored border control were thought to be anti-immigrant, ignorant, and perhaps racist.
However, Rasmussen Reports data shows an entirely different picture. Among those who favor enforcement-first policies [72%: AJStrata}, 59% also favor a national policy goal that welcomes all immigrants except national security threats, criminals, and those who would come here to live off the U.S. welfare system.
I think it is clear the far right has pulled ‘the common’ ground out from the conservative coalition. Their opposition has always been against giving legal status to illegal immigrants after fines and backtaxes. Their laughable hypocrisy continues as they call for law enforcement while claiming it will never be done right. Why demand something they have no faith in? To kill the bill of course! As I said the GOP will do what it wants, no matter what the consequences. And they seem to be willing to accept some really serious consequences to keep us mired in this current mess. Now it is only a choice between what we have and… What we have.
Enforcement,
here is another good one by heather earlier in the week:
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=20979
And in case You missed the Retired Border Patrol Members Opinion:
http://www.govexec.com/story_page.cfm?articleid=37103
But what would Retired Border Patrol Personel know? They only did the job for 20+ years!
Ordi,
Sullivan is a democrat. I am a conservative who is not self destructive. We do plan to fix what is wrong with conservative movement. Count 0n it. Every insult you fling just solidifies the end result.
You folks tanked your coalition – now we get to start another one without you. How simple does have to be?
AJ
So far the country has been twice burned and now they a gun shy and the examination is looking at the issue across the board.
The massive opposition across the board to this bill is because it needs to be fixed in the view of all those who don’t want to get burned again.
The way the data is distributed simply does not support your contention that this is a right wing only issue.
That is a pure fiction developed by the MSM and the dem noise machine hoping to make it a self fulfilling prophecy wedge issue.
Exit question
Since we are at full employment by most economic standards, where are we going to adsorb the 400,000 guest workers over the first two years of the bill.
McDonalds may be hiring, but that’s still a little much.
Merlin,
The country is getting burned right now. If we end up with the same mess that is going to be a disaster – brought to us again my an inflexible GOP which has run out its usefuleness.
No more preaching. The lines are drawn. More of the same will mean no more GOP games.
Rasmussen offered people a choice between “Option A” or “Option B”. He didn’t offer them an “Option C”. The choices were “this bill” or “nothing at all”.
If you factor in that 41% believe that this bill will actually make the illegal immigration problem worse, then it is easy to understand the results of that singular question.
If you are part of that 41%, the question sounds like this to you –
Would you prefer to “do nothing” or “do something that makes the problem worse”?
Hmmm…….. tough choice there.
–begin quote–
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that just 16% of American voters believe illegal immigration will decline if the Senate bill is passed. Seventy-four percent (74%) disagree. That figure includes 41% who believe the Senate bill will actually lead to an increase in illegal immigration.
–end quote–
source for the quote above –
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/just_16_believe_senate_bill_will_reduce_illegal_immigration
This ain’t rocket science. But I will admit that it probably would be difficult to comprehend if you were to continually ignore all the polling data that doesn’t support your own conclusion.
Let me give a personal example.
I have a neighbor two doors down who is a roofing contractor.
We have only a few in this town and they all compete and still make good livings.
When the building boom hit, his son chose to branch out and go to the Orlando area which was screaming for roofers.
His dad made multiple trips there to aid in him getting his stuff going.
His son grew quickly to a booming business with 50 employees (compared to his father’s 3).
He had 10 American employees as supervisors of crews (including 5 Hispanic legal citizens) and the balance illegals to compete in the local market.
When the boom crashed, he laid off all but two of his supervisors (both Hispanic Americans) and 15 of the workers.
He is treading water, but still making good bucks until the market picks back up.
He was up for a bbq we had last weekend and he said that when the initial pickup occurs he will pick up illegals first due to the lower costs as much as he would like to recall the Americans, but he realistically said, if he picked up the Americans first, the competition would be able to underbid him.
Not a good sign.
Those 49% who would rather live with the status quo than pass these good changes are the far right and far left. I would wager that 49% is 25% far right and 25% far left.
To arrive at that conclusion, you would have to completely ignore part of the polling data from that very simple poll.
–begin quote–
It would be a mistake, however, to see the difference as a typical partisan divide–just 29% of Democrats support the measure while 40% are opposed. Among Republicans, support is at 21% 57% are opposed. Only 17% of those not affiliated with either party support the measure. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of unaffiliateds are opposed.
–end quote–
source is the same poll that is quoted in your own article-
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/support_for_senate_immigration_bill_falls_49_prefer_no_bill_at_all
40% of Democrats are opposed
57% of Republicans are opposed
and
57% of unaffiliateds are opposed.
That shoots your “… that 49% is 25% far right and 25% far left” claim right out of the water.
Aren’t you a registered Independent???
It would appear that 57% of your own group are opposed.
Apache,
16% of American voters believe illegal immigration will decline if the Senate bill is passed
Now, why would that be?
You don’t think a lack of Border Security, and History have anything to do with that, do you?
What we really need in America is a Three Party System.
1. Liberals
2. Moderates
3. Conservatives
That way AJ could join #1 or #2, and feel comfortable, rather than create a new Conservative Movement based on Non Conservative Ideas.
You folks tanked your coalition – now we get to start another one without you.
That is certainly your prerogative. I wish you nothing but the best. And I regret that we are parting under these circumstances.
Good luck to you sir.
His father gave him two vehicles to start up with and his mother (the bookkeeper for the business) gave him supplier lists.
Dad fronted him 100k to do the startup and 3 months later when he was growing at hand over fist rates with no credit history he was running into a cash flow bind, since he couldn’t get bank financing I loaned him 2 and a half million to get him through the ruff spot.
I knew he had the past knowledge from working with his dad and I have known him since before he was a gleam in his father’s eye.
He paid me back in three years. Easy, since it was a 0% loan.
Now this is too funny!!!
This is something that I suspected, based upon my own personal experience, but I never brought it up because I knew that AJ would ridicule it.
The people that AJ has been labeling as “racists” and “bigots” are actually the people who are NOT racists or bigots.
Thank you Scott Rasmussen for asking these poll questions! Thank you! Thank you! Thank you!
–begin quote–
From the beginning, the President and most other Beltway politicians have misunderstood the public debate over immigration. The initial discussions in Washington implied a debate that was either pro-immigration or anti-immigration. Those who favored some form of legalization or earned citizenship were pictured in official Washington as pro-immigrant while those who favored border control were thought to be anti-immigrant, ignorant, and perhaps racist.
However, Rasmussen Reports data shows an entirely different picture. Among those who favor enforcement-first policies, 59% also favor a national policy goal that welcomes all immigrants except national security threats, criminals, and those who would come here to live off the U.S. welfare system.
Among those who oppose an enforcement first policy, just 50% favor such a welcoming policy goal. In other words, those who favor an enforcement-first policy are more likely than others to ultimately support a welcoming immigration policy.
–end quote–
source is same as AJ’s –
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/support_for_senate_immigration_bill_falls_49_prefer_no_bill_at_all
How about that, AJ. You have been labeling the wrong side as the “racists” and “bigots”. You have been insulting and alienating the wrong people!!!
That’s one heck of a strategy you have there, AJ. One heck of a strategy.
You don’t think a lack of Border Security, and History have anything to do with that, do you?
–begin sarcasm–
Nah…. nothing at all.
–end sarcasm–
I would also add that some of us have a tiny bit of common sense and we realize that granting legal status (and giving everyone a full year to apply for it), PRIOR to securing the border will simply attract more illegal immigrants. It ain’t rocket science.
Can you imagine how many people would attempt to cross the border in the 12 month period after the bill is signed? It would be INSANE! There would be a mad dash to cross the border and get your Z visa.
Keep fighting the fight AJ
HEre is the hilarious thing. If lets say this bill was the same execept there was no provisons for regualrization of the illegals. These same people that are saying all these enforcement measures will not and cannot be done would be praising them to high heaven and behind them 100 percent.
AJ
OHHH – Methinks I hit a NERVE of yours!
You have no clue who I am. You have no clue where I sit in the political spectrum. I belong to no coalition. Is that something like the so called VRWC??? I did not belong to that one either.
I am male or female? No I did not think you knew. The ONLY thing you know is I will not parrot your pathetic my way or the highway BS on the immigration issue. Matter of fact, I have NOT stated where I am on this issue on your site or any other. So how do you think you can put me in the little box your are attempting too? You can’t because you really have no clue where I stand.
Unlike you, my intent was NOT insult you but hey if you did not like being compared to Mr Sullivan then maybe you should wake up and smell the coffee. You are UNHINGED on this issue just as Mr Sullivan was on his issue.
FYI at the time Mr Sullivan was a Republican.
Hint: You will not amass or hold a following attempting to beat people over the head. Keep it up and your readers will fall away just as Mr Sullivan’s did.
BigLSU – You are soooo right. If the guest worker program was not in this package far right would be singing “aaammmen!”.
If anyone has read this bill ( which is being steadily altered by all the amendments), you see the inconsistency that in some portions they get down to the nity gritty of passenger car loadings, speed limits and hidden compartments in boats and cars in some portions of the bill but yet the real meat issues of the bill are painted in broad brushes that just invite legal challenges.
Many issues are up to being “pending funding” issues and too many are up to certification standards by various agencies with “at the discretion” of the certifier exceptions that make it a joke.
Like I have said before, I have no dog in this hunt. I am just trying to do analysis of what I see. I am not cherry picking anything.
Heck, I don’t even like cherries.
I am way to old for the “other kind of cherries” so lets not go there.
AJ
The guest worker program has the most support as a portion of this bill from all sides across the board.
Do you need to have the numbers?
Every participant has this almost as a given and you are dissing it!
Man you have a disconnect here!
The Senate just voted down an amendment that would bar felons from legalization.
Take a minute and let that sink in.
I don’t know what this bill is about at this point. But at this point, it should be perfectly clear that it is NOT about what is best for America.
Is there something in the water in D.C.? Do they hate this Country?
“The vote was 51-46 against the amendment. Democrats succeeded in sucking support from Cornyn’s proposal by winning adoption of a rival version that would bar a more limited set of criminals, including certain gang members and sex offenders, from gaining legalization. The Senate backed that amendment 66-32.”http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/myfox/pages/News/Detail?contentId=3416860&version=1&locale=EN-US&layoutCode=TSTY&pageId=3.3.1
In other words if I am reading this rifh those that wrote a bad check for over 100 dollars(a felony in some states” will not be deported (something that millions of Americans do often by accident and often they are reduced to Misdemanors or dismissed when the finds are paid ) or those that in their youth had a conviction of marijuania second offense which is a felony is some states and in others you are likely to just get a fine will be exempted while serious crimes are not? IS that correct?