Jun 06 2007
America Prefers The Status Quo?
I admit I missed the fact Scott Rassmussen did ask the question I wanted to see. He did ask whether the nation would prefer the status quo over the compromise:
Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters prefer no bill over the Senate bill. Just 32% prefer the legislative compromise over inaction.
Now how many people are naive enough to think the opposition to the bill is not a 50-50 mix of far right and far left? It is sadly laughable, but from what I am seeing the immigration hypochondriacs think the right and center are against the Bill and the left is for it. Which is of course silly. The far right is opposed to this bill and would prefer nothing because they cannot abide illegal immigrants getting legal status after fines, back taxes and background checks (not to mention you have to come forward). The far left, the real amnesty-open borders fringe, oppose this bill because it takes away the path to citizenship, has the one strike-your-out clause, and does not make long time illegal aliens immediate citizens.
This ain’t rocket science folks. Those 49% who would rather live with the status quo than pass these good changes are the far right and far left. I would wager that 49% is 25% far right and 25% far left. KOs readers and Malkin readers aligned in common cause. DU’ers and Freepers who would saddle this country with the same mess we have now before allowing the changes in this bill. Clearly, to support this bill you cannot be on either political fringe – by definition.
So that 32% who would rather have this bill than nothing, they represent those of us who decide who wins elections. That 32% is not buying into the far left or right zero sum game. Do the Immigration hypochondriacs REALLY believe the only supporters are far lefties? Do they really think that they will not pay a price for their attempts to leave the status quo mess in place? Hey, be my guest. Go ahead and assume the 32% is not critical to either party’s future electorial successes. I dare you. And Scott, you can prove me wrong by just making public the internals on that one number. I betcha it is 50-50 dem-rep or lib-con. For those who need emphasis regarding what is at stake let me do some math: 25+32 = 57%. Whoever gets the lion share of the blame for foiling the wishes of that 32% could alienate them for years to come.
Addendum: BTW, Rasmussen confirms my contention that the conservative camp is made up of people who support the entire bill and those who oppose the guest worker provisions:
From the beginning, the President and most other Beltway politicians have misunderstood the public debate over immigration. The initial discussions in Washington implied a debate that was either pro-immigration or anti-immigration. Those who favored some form of legalization or earned citizenship were pictured in official Washington as pro-immigrant while those who favored border control were thought to be anti-immigrant, ignorant, and perhaps racist.
However, Rasmussen Reports data shows an entirely different picture. Among those who favor enforcement-first policies [72%: AJStrata}, 59% also favor a national policy goal that welcomes all immigrants except national security threats, criminals, and those who would come here to live off the U.S. welfare system.
I think it is clear the far right has pulled ‘the common’ ground out from the conservative coalition. Their opposition has always been against giving legal status to illegal immigrants after fines and backtaxes. Their laughable hypocrisy continues as they call for law enforcement while claiming it will never be done right. Why demand something they have no faith in? To kill the bill of course! As I said the GOP will do what it wants, no matter what the consequences. And they seem to be willing to accept some really serious consequences to keep us mired in this current mess. Now it is only a choice between what we have and… What we have.
A thought on this poll.
First, many Americans are just picking up the negative background noise to the bill in the PR war against it. It is jsut like advertising. We don’t know we are effect by it but we are. People getting all the spam email from the usual suspects. The backsgorund noise on the TV etc.
Second, General Rule that the publics is a lot more uninformed that they ever admit they are in a poll
Taking all that into consideration and especially the unprecedented PR campaign agains the bill the fact that that the numbers are even now showing a upward trend is good. Correct if I am wrong but did not this poll or one recently show that 32 percent number at 26 percent last week? Also the 51 percent is a good number and indicates a cooling down in the future
Lastly I expect sooner than later after and if the bill passess the Senate the President will do a major primetime address on this. Last year that had a stablizing effect. I expect this year to do the same
First, thank you for addressing your inaccuracy.
That said you need to read it again.
As the debate has unfolded, Democrats have become modestly less opposed to the legislation while Republicans have trended slightly in the opposite direction. It would be a mistake, however, to see the difference as a typical partisan divide–just 29% of Democrats support the measure while 40% are opposed. Among Republicans, support is at 21% 57% are opposed. Only 17% of those not affiliated with either party support the measure. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of unaffiliateds are opposed.
17% non affiliated support this bill. 29% of Dems and 21% of Reps. support this bill.
Math Hint: 17% support is LESS Than 29% or 21% support.
I guess your rocket won’t fly today.
ordi
I would like a poll that is somehow fill in the blank. Where the pollester ask the respondant what they think is actually in the bill. That would be very instructive. I supect that most don’t have a clue
Ordi,
In math you never mix equations and pretend they are one. The 32% who support the bill are clearly not far left or far right. Since the bill includes things both fringes hate and will stop at any cost, they cannot be in the 32. Now if you want to pretend the 49% is all conservatives and the 32 is all leftwing nuts – be my guest. You jumping to a really silly conclusion doesn’t change what is happening in those numbers. No DU-KOS kid would be caught dead in the 32. They are all in the 49. Believe as you wish. But don’t ignore the observation by running to different numbers on a different matter!
A.J., I think Ahnuld has lurking around here…
“I think it’s inexcusable that we have had this system, and that people are fighting from the far right and the far left over this issue, rather than coming together in the center and really coming up with a compromise that works,” the governor told several hundred members of the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,278525,00.html
LSUFan you and AJ must have had the same statistics professor.
the numbers are even now showing a upward trend is good.
Rasmussen didn’t interpret that poll as an upward trend for proponents.
That would be very instructive. I supect that most don’t have a clue
And that would be especially true if you were one of the included.
Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters prefer no bill over the Senate bill. Just 32% prefer the legislative compromise over inaction.
I thought your prediction was if that were the question, it would show a majority wanted something done. and even tho the results are completely reversed from what you thought it would be and would wish that it were, you’re spinning this as, you were right?
well, okay
BigLsu
You and AJ got the answer you said you were looking for and it was crushingly against you and NOW you want to move the goal posts.
Did you bring your tap dance shoes with you?
Well gee what to you know, looks like Cal Thomas has been taken over by the dark side of the force!
http://www.daily-journal.com/archives/dj/display.php?id=396573
Cal Thomas: Don’t trust enforcement in Senate compromise
I wish I could believe the president and those senators who claim their agreement on immigration legislation will “fix” the problems of open borders and illegal aliens. I can’t, because the public has had no input into the measure; the last time Congress “fixed” the problem, it got worse; and it appears Democrats and Republicans care more about harvesting votes for their respective parties than doing what’s best for their fellow citizens.
Hey AJ
I did not declare anything other than point you to other numbers in the poll so I have not jumped to any conclusions. I attempted to show YOU where you were wrong when you wrote the following.
You wrote: Now how many people are naive enough to think the opposition to the bill is not a 50-50 mix of far right and far left?
Then you wrote this: Those 49% who would rather live with the status quo than pass these good changes are the far right and far left. I would wager that 49% is 25% far right and 25% far left.
I did not mix equations and pretend they were one. I merely pointed you to other numbers in the poll that demonstrated that what you wrote was inaccurate and left a subset of people opposed unaccounted for in the 49%.
How do you explain the Fifty-seven percent (57%) of unaffiliateds that are opposed to the bill. How did they answer the question, “Which would be better for the country, passing the immigration reform bill or not passing any immigration reform bill at this time?”
Now how many people are naive enough to believe that NONE of the 57% of unaffiliateds that said they are opposed to the bill answered the above question so they would not be part of the 49%.
No matter how hard you try there are some unaffiliateds in the 49% that you say is 25% far right and 25% far left. Hey I am not saying how many but it is clearly not 25% right and 25% left. They were more unafiliateds opposed than right or left. Your 25/25 does not account for the unaffiliateds that are opposed.
Your 25/25 statement shows it was YOU that jumped to a conclusion. All I attempted to do was show you that YOUR conclusion of 25/25 was inaccurate.
Merlin: it’s correct, and frankly, the ONLY reason that AJ can give for his support of this bill, is the fact he wants “Hispanic” votes for the Republican/Conservative cause; that’s his ONLY justification; but he manages to say that, while claiming he’s not a Republican, but somehow an “independent” conservative, or something?
I still don’t understand, actually.
I do know that he also would not answer the very Intelligence, cogent 20 Loopholes in the bill put out by Senator Sessions!
Additionally, AJ continues his posts, writing for his “audience”, which is us, and continues to say we’re against a “Guest Worker” program, when in fact, NONE of us are against that at all, and have stated it repeatedly.
We’ve mainly asked for REAL enforcement of the border, and US Law, and we’ve also asked that the REAL criminals, such as terrorists and gang memember and sex offenders and drug dealers, etc., NOT GET A FREE PASS; but AJ won’t address that, and instead, continues to call us names, and refuses to answer the questions we ask.
So, basically I’ve given up.
Every post he writes on this, no matter if it contradicts a post he just put yesterday on the same issue, is designed to call us all more names, demean the people who have legitimate doubts about the bill, and answer the questions.
In fact, AJ, on this issue, has descended from providing his normal, intelligent, insightful analysis, to just trying to ensure that he is RIGHT, and that his “analysis” is CORRECT, regardless of the outcome, and regardless of the FACTS!
I’m just absolutely flabbergasted by it, and it’s really become som tedious, that it’s not worth even commenting on this topic at all, actually.
Dale
You are right about AJ on this issue. He is going into Andrew Sullivan territory. I have not given up reading this site but………..
I wait for him to come back to his senses.
DaleinAtlanta’
I still don’t understand, actually.
Dale, Your not alone! I’ve Heard Bush Conservative, Republican, Independent, and maybe more. I don’t think he knows for sure~
I do know that he also would not answer the very Intelligence, cogent 20 Loopholes in the bill put out by Senator Sessions!
Dale, he can’t answer it and come off as inteligent. So, he will impune people like us, who ask good questions.
I see this Bill as solving one problem, converting Illegals to Legals, and exaserbating every thing else.
How could anyone seriously want a bill to pass, and call it “Progress” when it still allows 623,000 people ordered Deported, but who are “Living in the shadows” , to get a free pass for FELONIES!
I bogles the mind.
Senator Cornyn:
[Amnesty] is seen not as a deterrent, “but as a powerful magnet.”
EXACTLY.
If History Is Our Guide……
That is why we Must Secure The Border First, Then Deal with the problem our estem Representative have allowed to happen over the last 21 years.
Every point we have made that was documented , linked and especially pointed to in the polls how uniformly widespread without regard to political orientation this is. Even government data to give us an independent yardstick is dismissed as “cherry picking”.
The massive weight of the data and all the real and needing to be fixed issues with this bill can only lead to the conclusion that AJ is looking at the wrong end of the telescope on this one.
Even Kennedy on the floor of the Senate today, said a large portion of the reason we are here today was that existing laws had not been enforced and allowed the horde of illegals to build since the last bill.
Found the Kennedy quote from earlier today
http://michellemalkin.com/archives/007674.htm
Kennedy has now offered his counter-amendment, 1333.
Kennedy: “What is an amnesty? 1986 was an amnesty. This is not an amnesty. There were enforcement provisions in there, but they were completely inadequate. We had Republican presidents. They didn’t enforce it. (Raising voice) And they’re the great defenders of the border?! I mean, please. All those years we had enforcement [in the law] and they did not [enforce].”
Uh, exactly.
DaleinAtlanta an excellent assessment. I will add, as you may know, a few days ago I said I wasn’t even going to comment any more on the illegal alien deal anymore, but so much misinformation kept being posted, it’s hard not to at least attempt to get the truth out there. Seems there are a few on this site still commenting on the issue, but it has definitely fallen off a lot. Most people eventually realize when they are banging their head against a wall.
It still seems foreign to me that people can be for allowing convicted felons that have been ordered deported to get a Z visa which allows a path to citizenship, even if that convicted felony was for assault on a minor child. That’s what the Kennedy amendment(to this PERFECT bill) did today.
This “No Felons Left Behind” bill does just that. See Drudge today for that story.
From Heather McDonald’s City Journal Article Today:
Even Republican Hispanics are not particularly conservative on economic issues. A 2002 poll by the Pew and Kaiser foundations found that 52 percent of registered Latino Republicans supported a higher-taxing, larger state sector, a higher percentage for big government than one finds among white Democrats, reports Steve Sailer. As for the majority of Latinos—poor and poorly-educated—the more government services, the better. Mexican consulates across the country are busily signing up illegal Mexicans for all the free government-funded health care that the consulates can find—that would be American- not Mexican-funded health care, mind you. “We have the right to health services,†an illegal Mexican in Santa Clarita, California, told the Los Angeles Times.
This attitude of entitlement—not only among illegal aliens but also among legal Hispanic immigrants and their children—extends to the full array of welfare programs. In fact, welfare use actually increases between the second and third generation of Mexican-Americans—to 31 percent of all third-generation Mexican-American households.
ENFORCEMENT, Glad to see You back. I understand your frustration.
Further:
The rapidly growing Hispanic population “helped decimate the California GOP,†report John Judis and Ruy Teixeira. There is little reason to think that the outcome will be much different in other states. Republicans should craft their immigration policy based on principle, not on politics. But if they insist on deciding the future direction of American sovereignty based on political expediency, they should at least get their politics right.
http://www.city-journal.org/html/eon2007-06-06hm.html