Oct 13 2012

Obama Polling Shows Defeat

Published by at 11:00 am under 2012 Elections,All General Discussions

Sometimes people get too focused on the gap between two candidates and forget to pay attention to the actual levels. For example, an incumbent who is polling around 45-46% is more than likely to lose the election since undecided voters late in the race tend to go to the challenger. This is especially true for Presidents, who by the nature of their job have the highest visibility of any candidate in the country. Presidents are well known (or well worn) entities after 4 years in office.

So while there is a small gap between Romney and Obama in the RCP poll of polls, the levels indicate (today) that Obama is very likely to lose on election day.  The data is pretty brutal (click to enlarge):


This is a snapshot of the RCP poll of polls this morning, Oct 13, 2012. Amazingly the incumbent President is polling at only 46% across the average of 7 polls. That means that 46% is not an outlier, but the real trend when you see it so consistently like this. All these polls confirm Obama is very likely to lose the election. If this goes to 45% I would say it is a given. If Romney elevates to 49%, it is a given.

This may explain why state polls are shifting to Romney (they tend to lag the national numbers since they are not taken as often).

As long as Obama is at 46% or below across this many polls there is almost nothing that can save him from being a one term wonder like Jimmy Carter.

4 responses so far

4 Responses to “Obama Polling Shows Defeat”

  1. patrioticduo says:

    The anticipation of Obama’s apparently imminent demise is truly nerve-racking. What could happen over the next 26 days? What skulduggery could the left launch to try to intervene where all acceptable democratic methods have failed so far? How lawyered up is the vote itself going to be? The polls certainly seem to suggest that Obama is in deep trouble at this point. And I also note that the media has gone very quiet on the Senate races which would also suggest that this election is going to be a lefty bloodbath. As you have always posited, this election is likely to be a repeat of the insurgent tea party 2010 election. In which case, the democrats just aren’t going to know what hit them. They will draw all the wrong conclusions from it and they will then pretend like it never happen in the first place. However, the real danger is that the GOP will also draw all the wrong conclusions, will also pretend like it never happened and will take all the credit for all the wrong reasons. In which case, you are going to see more libertarians joining hands and activating to overcome leviathan.

  2. oneal lane says:

    This is exactly what Dick Morris has been saying for some time, and I hope it bears true. The key will be the last minute “undecided” swing against the incumbent.

  3. […] can only hope. Via AJ Strata: Sometimes people get too focused on the gap between two candidates and forget to pay attention to […]

  4. […] The Strata-sphere says that the latest polling shows an Obama defeat […]