Feb 05 2012

Nevada Primary First Step On Path To Obama 2nd Term

Published by at 10:32 am under All General Discussions

The cheering by the GOP establishment over Romney’s win in the Nevada primary is scary delusional. As I predicted last week, a Romney ascendancy to the GOP presidential candidate slot is going to take the air out of the Obama opposition and lead to an Obama 2nd term. As tests for my theory I established some markers.

I predicted Obama’s 8-9% deficit in his ratings would disappear. They have (Obama now 46-46 at Gallup).

I predicted the Dems would lead in the Congressional Ballot polls after being behind for a year: They have (Dems now up 3 at RCP).

And I predicted a Romney candidacy would turn off voters. And it has:

Mitt Romney’s easy victory in Nevada’s Republican presidential caucuses might, in the long run, be less important than the fact that a surprising number of Republicans who could have participated Saturday chose to stay home.

Republicans’ disappointing turnout foreshadows difficulty energizing GOP voters in Nevada, a key swing state in November’s general election.

Romney and the GOP establishment have been attacking the 2010 insurgent voters, who rightfully want to shrink everyone’s power in DC and put it back in the hands of the people. This has made the angry 2010 voter the enemy of the GOP – a strange way to win elections.

I can summarize this as f0llows: Obamacare versus Romneycare – where is a voter to find “none of the above!”?

41 responses so far

41 Responses to “Nevada Primary First Step On Path To Obama 2nd Term”

  1. lurker9876 says:

    Mitt is starting to attack Rick Santorum with negative ads. So now that Newt has been neutralized, Mitt’s free to go after Rick.

    WWS, interesting about Ann Coulter.

    I see that the intrade bumped Obama’s chances of re-election from 50 to 57 percent. ..in recent days. A huge jump!

    Now that’s scary.

    I see that Dick Armey is telling everyone to stay at home if Romney wins the nomination. He’s now saying that Newt is no longer the darling of the Tea Party.

  2. lurker9876 says:

    Penquin1, if Mitt wins the nomination, what Mitt needs to demonstrate to the Americans his ability to generate the economy by creating jobs and bringing certain business from bankruptcy to profitable entities. If he was able to restore the Summer Olympics, he should be able to restore the government budget and all that.

  3. lurker9876 says:

    Byron York notices the voter turnout in Nevada is lower than it was in ’08. Not much excitement for Mitt.

    44K in ’08 versus about 33 K. Wow…low numbers for both years!

  4. WGIRL says:

    Low turnout but a 50% win for Romney, that is worth a mention …don’t you think ??


    It is still early, more primaries still to come …..

    Only thing I am sure of, Obama will be defeated inspite of Matt Lauer’s best efforts before the SuperBowl !!

  5. Mike M. says:

    Like him or not, I have to give Romney credit for one thing.

    He’s willing to fight. And fight dirty.

    Four years ago, McCain ran a campaign that seemed obsessed with Losing With Honor and Dignity. Romney seems intent on Winning By Any Means Necessary.

    Which is a welcome change. Because while he’s not my first choice, Romney is infinitely better than Obama.

  6. WGIRL says:

    Washington Times —


    Newt Gingrich says he is the conservative choice in the 2012 presidential race, but five states into the campaign, Mitt Romney has won more self-identified conservative voters, according to an analysis by The Washington Times of entrance and exit polls.

    Mr. Romney capped off that showing with a win in Nevada that included support from a majority of self-identified conservatives, a feat neither Mr. Gingrich nor the other two remaining candidates have been able to accomplish.

    “He may be more conservative than Romney, but that does not mean that he is winning over more conservative voters,” said Mark Rozell, a political science professor at George Mason University. “The primary voters are not aligning themselves solely on the basis of ideology. They are looking as well to electability, character, leadership ability, among other factors. So being to the right of the front-runner is not enough to convince conservative voters to pick a Gingrich.”

  7. Redteam says:

    Penguin2, very good article, expresses my thoughts exactly. The only thing I might say, if we have to hold our nose and vote for Romney, is that at least he sees there is two sides to most issues and sometimes chooses the correct one for expediency. Obama only sees one side and it’s the wrong one. I am one of those believers that if obama gets reelected, we may never get another chance to even nominate a conservative. it’ll likely be only liberal and liberal-er.

  8. Redteam says:

    WGIRL it is unfortunate that you have to be told the difference in a conservative and a non- conservative. ““He may be more conservative than Romney, but that does not mean that he is winning over more conservative voters,”

    There is no ‘he may be more conservative than Romney’ Romney is not conservative in any manner, he is a Democrat that ran as a republican because the Democrats didn’t like him either.

    Newt is a conservative. So it’s not a case of ‘more’ conservative or ‘less’ conservative. It’s ‘a’ conservative and ‘a’ liberal that you are comparing. So quit fantasizing and call a spade a spade.

  9. penguin2 says:

    Thank you Redteam. I finally had to put “pen to paper” and express my concerns and observations. I don’t think I’m off the mark, but like you will vote for Romney if he is the nominee. He is still far better than Obama in the WH. I don’t believe Romney will do anything more destructive than what has already been done to the country, and he is not anti-American. The problem comes after the election for those of us who want to roll back the dastardly deeds already done. We want to throw a bunch of folks out, and not only stop but reverse course of the socialist government. While you and I will go vote, I am empathic to those who will not accept, even for one more time, and considering what’s at stake, those who will not vote for him. He has run a very well funded nasty campaign against all who would challenge him, and has yet to show he will stand up to the leftists liberals running the country. He’ll have a hard time, because in many respects he is similar to them, and his time in Massachusetts proves it.

  10. WGIRL says:

    Redteam –

    Just because Gingrich tells you over and over …that he is the only Reagan “conservative” in the race……doesn’t make it true !!

    A good case can be made that Gingrich is not the conservative you obviously have bought into… hook, line and sinker !!

    Just remember, Ronald Reagan was once a Democrat and the governor of California !!

    And, who knows, Romney could turn around the Obama mess, like Reagan fixed the Jimmy Carter malaise.

    One thing I know, we already have a Professor and he has already proven he can’t get the job done. I want to give, a successful business man with experience as a governor, a chance to run the show and see if he can get this “out of control government” on a BUDGET !!!!!!!!! I am sick of these politicians who become millionaires while and after they leave office. (Hint – Hint) !! Give me a proven business man, who made his millions, as a capitalist ….any day of the week !!

    Gingrich can take his “conservative” credentials to every primary forward and win the nomination but he will never win the general election. If you want to win, you can’t do it alone with Tea Party and Republican “conservatives”, you need conservative Democrats and Independents too. The sooner “you purist conservatives” realize that …..the sooner we get rid of Obama.

    And for your information, Redteam, I am a conservative and don’t appreciate the lecture !! We obviously have a difference of opinion …so let us leave it, at that !!!!!!!!

  11. WGIRL says:

    Presidential Fathers and Sons


    For the seventh consecutive election, the next president will either be a privileged son or a man with no relationship with his biological father.


    Very interesting piece !!

  12. Redteam says:

    WGIRL, did you say you’re conservative or comedian? “And for your information, Redteam, I am a conservative and don’t appreciate the lecture ”
    Now that’s funny, I don’t care who you are…
    you spent your whole comment lecturing me then tell me you don’t appreciate the lecture…

    One thing you do not have the ability to do is write about what a conservative thinks. Anyone that thinks Romney is even remotely a teeny little bit conservative, does not have a working relationship with reality. I’m not saying he has never done anything that is conservative, I’m sure if he thought a particular ‘conservative act’ would buy him a few votes, he would have no problem following the votes.

    and you said: “Just because Gingrich tells you over and over …that he is the only Reagan “conservative” in the race……doesn’t make it true !! ”

    and just because you say that, doesn’t make it true.
    I know for a fact that Gingrich was one of the true conservatives at the time, that helped Reagan with his conservative revolution. Just because he has done some ‘unconservative’ things later in his career doesn’t change his early history. I was around at the time it was all happening, and I was well aware of what was taking place.

    and you said: “One thing I know, we already have a Professor ”

    I’m assuming you are under the illusion that obama is a professor. I’ve never seen any evidence of that. Yes, he has guest lectured a few college courses, but that does not a professor make.

    and I just know: “Just remember, Ronald Reagan was once a Democrat and the governor of California !! ” that you’re going to imply that Romney is ‘only following in Reagan’s footsteps’ Well, you’re wrong. Reagan admitted to being a Democrat and ‘seeing the light’ Romney has never admitted being a liberal and until he does can never claim he ‘has seen the light’.
    Romney wouldn’t make a pimple on Reagan’s butt.

    I personally think that it is likely that whoever the Republican nominee is will win over obama, but that may only be wishful thinking that we can have a legal election. I strongly expect obama to steal the election, whatever he has to do.

    Well WGIRL, now that I have responded to your lecture. lighten up and enjoy the comments everyone writes. most people can have strong opinions and most people consider ‘their’ opinion to be the correct one. I hope we’re all correct and can defeat obama. We can both comment without being adversaries.

  13. Frogg1 says:

    I don’t see anything major or too damaging here. I think we are used to seeing witch hunts/ fake ethics charges, etc after all that has been done to Palin, or as in similar history with Newt. Romney has clearly not been vetted though.

    Romney’s own ethics charges

    However, as governor, Romney had to deal with his own ethics charges; filing ethics complaints by then had become a common tool of political warfare. …..

    Romney used a loophole to avoid an ethics violation — He failed to report a trip on a Pfizer-owned jet at a time when he was set to sign healthcare legislation.

    In his most serious case, in December 2006, he only narrowly avoided violating ethics laws through the means of a loophole.

  14. WWS says:

    interesting day in store, if PPP is correct; of course I recall that they were way off in predicting Florida. So we’ll just have to wait till the results are in to see if this prediction comes true. But if it does…

    PPP is predicting that Santorum may take Minnesota and Missouri, and come in second in Colorado. If this plays out, it would indicate that a large group of Newt’s one time supporters are dropping him and moving to Santorum as the alternative to Romney.


    Santorum’s greatest appeal at this point is that he’s stayed above the vicious personal attacks and counterattacks that have ruined the favorability ratings of both Romney and Gingrich. And the consequences – Romney certainly has the money and organization to carry on in the race no matter what happens today, but if Santorum jumps into a solid second, the Gingrich campaign is almost certainly over. He’ll limp along til super Tuesday, of course, but any chances of his winning this thing will be gone.

    FTA: “Tuesday has the potential to be the most significant day in the Republican race yet.”

  15. […] tip: Protein Wisdom: We insiders call this stealth conservatism AJ Strata: Romney and the GOP establishment have been attacking the 2010 insurgent voters, who rightfully want […]

  16. Redteam says:

    AJ, another one caught in moderation. Is it because it’s too long?

  17. Frogg1 says:

    Rick Santorum ATTACKS Tea Party

    Santorum praises tea party support now. But, he was originally opposed to the tea party movement.

    In June 2011, he said he would “vocally and publicly oppose” the movement. He was worried at how the tea party was trying to redefine conservatism. Also, he defended earmarks.

    More vetting please.

  18. jan says:

    Frogg1, I hadn’t heard about Santorum’s opposition to the tea party before. His earmark history, along with voting against RTW in Penn., and lack of any private sector experience are all red flags.

    However, each and every one of the 4 candidates remaining have defects. It’s a matter of choosing the one who, in summation, holds the greatest possibility to hold their own against Obama.

    IMO, this is how I see the current field’s chances of that:

    Ron Paul is more of a cult figure, having an intensely supportive, vocal but small contituency that will hang with him. His backing reminds me of the same kind of loyal faction who is behind Sarah Palin, through thick and thin.

    Newt Gingrich, is the most controversial of all the R figures in the race. This is a positive feature for those conservatives who want someone armed with fireworks to represent their POV. Otherwise, it’s a big negative for an overall appeal, outside the hard core base. Indications of his lack of likability is shown by him having the highest unfavorable ratings of any candidate. He will lose BIG in the GE. He will also provide great fodder for the dems in his personal failings, linkage to big government, lack of private sector experience. He will be compared to Clinton for his sloppy personal life, and to Obama for his professorial background, tendency to lecture tediously, and be self-indulgent in expounding on his great powers of persuasion and capacity for big ideas. Gingrich also shares a lack of diplomatic decorum with Obama: Gingrich in being unable to rudimentarily give a congratulatory call to a winner, and Obama rudely walking out on an ex-President’s son’s speech

    Rick Santorum, is seen as a ‘nice’ guy. But his huge socially conservative agenda will prove to be an anchor on his electability, when most people are focused more on jobs, the economy, deficit reduction etc. I also don’t see much difference in his governmental policies from either Gingrich or Romney, although I’ve heard from economists that his economic plan seems better than the one put out by Romney.

    Mitt Romney has Romneycare and wealth as his biggest obstacles.

    The former has to be explained in such a way to override the patented objections that have been velcroed to it. He has to talk about his 70 page Romneycare bill versus the 2700 page Obamacare bill; how his bill was meant to impact one facet of one state’s medical care — increasing a uniform accessibility to more people. Also, Romney’s statement, enthusing about his health care plan, was not attempting to nationalize it, but was suggesting that if his plan proved to be successful other states would be able to use it in constructing their own state health reforms.

    Romney’s wealth issue will be a conscious-raising banner for everyone’s wealth in this country. Right now there is a repudiation of wealth being cultivated by the left. It’s starting with the ‘very’ wealth — the Romney’s, Gates, Wall Street etc., But, eventually it will trickle downward to upper/middle income brackets, until the playing field is leveled and we have the implantation of socialism rather than capitalism in this country. So, this is a fight worth having, turning public opinion around before the meme of anti-wealth becomes too cemented in an already entitlement society’s brain.

    If Romney can overcome these problems, if he is not too demolished/demoralized by both the hard left and hard right, I think he has the personal appeal, financial/political support, polite but tenacious demeanor to be the one best to take it to Obama. Just the fact that Obama is now going after big PAC money, indicates a need to revamp and apply more resources to his reelection campaign, in lieu of going up against someone as well-financed and business-savvy as Romney (who I think they are expecting to run against).