Feb 05 2012

Nevada Primary First Step On Path To Obama 2nd Term

Published by at 10:32 am under All General Discussions

The cheering by the GOP establishment over Romney’s win in the Nevada primary is scary delusional. As I predicted last week, a Romney ascendancy to the GOP presidential candidate slot is going to take the air out of the Obama opposition and lead to an Obama 2nd term. As tests for my theory I established some markers.

I predicted Obama’s 8-9% deficit in his ratings would disappear. They have (Obama now 46-46 at Gallup).

I predicted the Dems would lead in the Congressional Ballot polls after being behind for a year: They have (Dems now up 3 at RCP).

And I predicted a Romney candidacy would turn off voters. And it has:

Mitt Romney’s easy victory in Nevada’s Republican presidential caucuses might, in the long run, be less important than the fact that a surprising number of Republicans who could have participated Saturday chose to stay home.

Republicans’ disappointing turnout foreshadows difficulty energizing GOP voters in Nevada, a key swing state in November’s general election.

Romney and the GOP establishment have been attacking the 2010 insurgent voters, who rightfully want to shrink everyone’s power in DC and put it back in the hands of the people. This has made the angry 2010 voter the enemy of the GOP – a strange way to win elections.

I can summarize this as f0llows: Obamacare versus Romneycare – where is a voter to find “none of the above!”?

41 responses so far

41 Responses to “Nevada Primary First Step On Path To Obama 2nd Term”

  1. jan says:

    Just found this latest poll from Gallup:

    Mitt Romney 37%
    Newt Gingrich 22%
    Rick Santorum 16%
    Ron Paul 11%

    Of course, these polls change as fast as a sky changes color. But, it still represents a current frame of mind of the populace at large. It will be interesting to see how Santorum does in MI and MO — I think he takes both states, which will, once again, change the calculus of this primary.