Apr 07 2011
WI Race About To Turns Around
Update: How expected! Prosser gains 7,300+ votes and AJStrata confirms unofficial vote tallies are rarely good to within +/- 1% (see below). Which means be patient – this could twist some more as the error is driven out of the count. Right now though, that is a huge lead for Kloppenburg to overcome (~0.5% of the vote total). It seems some folks are surprised over at Hot Air – I can’t see why. – end update
I told you so – OK, I feel better. One of the things about being a geek is you get to apply math and make a solid prediction and look prescient. The math is prescient.
The math I speak about was the error bars around election results. My estimates covered two scenarios: 0.1% and 1% error. In a race with over 14 million votes cast that computed to error bars of +/- 1,478 votes or 14,776 votes, respectively. With the current lead a razor thin 204 votes, it was not hard to predict the actual final tally would be much different. The only questions was whether it was 100’s of votes off (0.1% error) or 1,000 of votes off (1% error). Could even be more.
It turns out I was right. As a more precise and quality-assured counting process (called ‘canvassing’) is being executed, we already hear there will be a lead change today:
ncumbent Justice David Prosser is locked in a very close race with challenger JoAnne Kloppenburg but according to sources, Prosser may be leading by a significant number of votes by the end of the day.
Kloppenburg was foolish to try and claim victory on the unofficial count. She will have a hard time explaining why Prosser should not win on the official count after she wanted to win on the unofficial one. Any recount and challenges are now suspect and tainted.
Another smooth liberal move.
ok, I am laughing my ass off while simultaneously going “WTF?????”
This has GOT to be the biggest WTF political moment of the year!!!
btw – nice to see the mention of New Berlin, a Milwaukee suburb. I’ve still got a couple sets of cousins there.
Wow…this is unbelievable! I see that Madison is re-canvassing its votes with hopes to overturn Prosser’s lead by suddenly discovering 8500 missing votes.
Somebody said that with this kind of a lead, KLOP will be required to pay for the recount.
So let’s hope Prosser holds this lead while the other counties and precincts re-canvass their votes.
I hope this isn’t a ‘Franken’ deal where they keep counting until Klop finally gets a lead then they declare it official. I’m guessing that ‘some union’ is responsible for counting and finding stray votes. I’m sure they haven’t opened any automobile trunks and ‘found’ all the votes that are ‘missing’. All that is coming. The Dims won’t give up easily.
I am overjoyed with this development. Kloppenburg showed bad judgment in her knee-jerk acceptance speech before the election had been canvassed, let alone certified, with such a small difference between the two.
I know what you mean redteam. Those dem car trunks can stash a lot of ballots. And, the unsettling aspect of this is that somehow they seem to get counted, after the fact.
In Prosser’s turnaround, it was simply “human error,” in not saving a total from Brookfield, rather than “adding” new ballots to the count. But the dems don’t understand honest errors, as opposed to fraudalent ones, since these are the ones they so often engage in.
Klop is filing something to force the team to explain this human error.
Does WI have a deadline to declare a winner?
I saw that Dane / Madison plans to canvass its votes tomorrow. Good thing that Dane retracted its 10K voting error.
What else could Kloppenburg do but to file something. It’s an embarrassing turnabout for her. She is groping for something to show her constituency that she is proactively doing something, anything to figure this thing out and possibly rectify it.
Hopefully,though, it will be a lost cause, and she will go quietly into the night.
Liberal cry-babies don’t go quietly into the night, they scream and cry and cheat and steal and flee the state to avoid debate!
They march and protest and threaten and beat and trash the publically funded institutions that guarantee their right to free speech and assembly!
Until we admit the fact that liberals are lying, cheating, stealing, entitled thugs we will not know thine enemy and the country will be in grave perail.
This could get very ugly because under the direction of the Community Organizer the entitled class is being urged to seek ever more payments from the true working class and until they are defeated the entitled class will demand their rights, which are more of your money, freedoms and labor and ultimately enslave those who do not join them.
I’m not sure that this can ultimately be decided at the ballot box. Not now that the elections, judges, legislature and Presidency are all in control of the liberals and their notion of us vs. them. Them being capitalism!
I don’t want her to go quietly into the night! I want her to go crying and screaming and kicking and wailing, cursing the voters and cursing the day she was born!!!
bwah hah ha ha ha!!!!!
Well, Michael Moore and his lefties are already crying and screaming, kicking, wailing, and cursing the voters!
Don’t we feel all so vindicated and READY to fight for 2012? This is going to embolden our odds in gaining back the country in 2013.
REPEAL OBAMACARE!
Replace the liberal SCOTUS with conservative SCOTUS!
REPEAL EPA and FCC.
Refocus NASA!