Jan 09 2010

Political Tsunami As Scott Brown Ties Race In MA Senate Special Election

Published by at 8:11 pm under All General Discussions

It seems the Democrats are about to be rocked to their core (according to polls from PPP) due to a win (or near loss) by relative unknown Scott Brown in Massachusetts’ special election on January 19th to fill the seat left by Ted Kennedy:

Buoyed by a huge advantage with independents and relative disinterest from Democratic voters in the state, Republican Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley 48-47.

66% of GOP voters say they are ‘very excited’ about casting their votes, while only 48% of Democrats express that sentiment- and that’s among the Democrats who are planning to vote in contrast to the many who are apparently not planning to do so at this point.

Brown has eye popping numbers with independents, sporting a 70/16 favorability rating with them and holding a 63-31 lead in the horse race with Coakley. Health care may be hurting Democratic fortunes with that group, as only 27% of independents express support for Obama’s plan with 59% opposed.

Full poll here. Health care seems to be one of the main forces driving the race. He is also closing the fundraising gap as well. Someone blogging at Brown’s election headquarters notes this:

The response we have been getting from independents is overwhelmingly supportive. From the calls I made, people seemed genuinely angry with the current state of the economy and politics. The support was genuine, not just lip service to get me off the phone.

People are furious at the attempt to delay a certification if Brown wins. That point hits home with a lot of the people we have called.

As usual, the centrists and independents are driving this movement. I heard Brown on a few talk shows and he is smart to  not uncork too much rabid conservative issues, keeping with the economic angles and staying away from the hot social issues that got the GOP in hot water in 2006 and 2008.

If Brown is elected, it will be a sign of the strength and breadth of the Tea Party revolt – which is also not a far right phenomena only. As long as conservatives can stay away from insulting centrists and independents they will find allies to take down the liberal government now in place and start anew. But it has to be a partnership spanning center-left to as far on the right it can go before the purists start destroying the momentum and synergy.

Reagan’s coalition can rise again – if the various factions focus on common ground instead of differences. Which is how Reagan did it, after all. Fingers crossed Brown is a sign of a major political realignment we have not seen since the aftermath of Carter and the leadership of Reagan.

Update: I am sure there will tons of comments over at Hot Air that will be fun to watch – enjoy.

18 responses so far

18 Responses to “Political Tsunami As Scott Brown Ties Race In MA Senate Special Election”

  1. Terrye says:

    PPP was off in New York 23, but they might be right this time. It would be really astounding to see the Democrats lose MA. I read that the Governor of MA will try to hold off confirming the win if Brown prevails…just to keep him out of the Senate until after Obamacare is passed. Unbelievable.

  2. crosspatch says:

    Democrats are going to lose at the Federal level, they are going to lose at the state level, and they are going to lose at the local level.

    They have emptied the treasuries of every jurisdiction they control. We have just come off the longest economic expansion and the best times this country has seen in its history. One would think we would be in good shape to weather a downturn but no, during that time Democrats blew every dime they got their hands on. In one year Obama has blown more cash than every President before him combined.

    I believe it is extreme liberalism that is going to be toast after this next election. Every generation apparently needs to be reminded of what happens when you have a Democratic President with a Democratic Congress. With my generation it was the Carter administration. With this generation it is the Obama administration.

    The blowback in this election will dwarf 1994 because it is going to extend down to all levels of government. It will be the liberals looking for work when this is all said and done. Oh, and it is probably going to take about six to eight years for the process to complete.

  3. […] well aware of the historic mistake Dimocrats made in ‘08. They are readying their appeal to the “Reagan Democrats” that Hillary proved so powerful a voice with. Republicans are also on the right track by asking what effect a close election for U.S. Senate in […]

  4. AJ,

    I don’t believe the PPP poll.

    And even it it were true, I also don’t believe that the Mass. Dem. machine cannot vote fraud it’s way out of a close election the way Minnesota Democrats did to Sen. Norm Coleman.

  5. Toes192 says:

    I sent some Alaskan$$… Did you? …
    Glad to see you are not constantly [only occasionally now] bashing us [We? Never can get that one right] responsible Conservatives these days, Aj …

  6. SallyVee says:

    Trent, are you gay or something?

    If so, you need to meet some gay guys who will slap the sissy out of you forEVER.

    If not, you need to meet some gay guys who will shame you into fighting like a man.

    I’m kidding… but only a little. I have a tendency toward the same sort of pessimism as you. Afterall, I’m a Republican. But the gay Democrats at HillBuzz simply won’t tolerate it.

    Here, go take the cure:

  7. crosspatch says:

    Not surprisingly a poll by the Boston Globe (which is owned by the NY Times) has a completely opposite result.

    When is Rasmussen going to do a poll?

  8. Terrye says:


    I wondered the same thing.

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  10. Salle Vee,

    Watching the Democrats steal enough elections through voter fraud does that for a man.

    The issues that may get Brown through are the facts that
    1) Democrats didn’t expect to nee to steal this election,
    2) The fact that the Democratic candidate does not have a unified the local Dem machine behind her, and
    3) Massachusetts is more than a day’s drive from Chicago local activists.

    All politics is local and many of the local Democrats don’t like Coakley.

  11. SallyVee says:

    Just FYI

    In 30 minutes: TLC Channel / 9pm EST / Brace For Impact – Capt. Chesley B. ‘Sully’ Sullenberger retraces events leading to landing his US Airways passenger jet on the Hudson River in New York City, Jan. 15, 2009.

    Narrated by Harrison Ford.

  12. crosspatch says:

    This is awesome news! The Worcester Telegram has just backed Brown and this is a paper that endorsed Obama.

  13. MarkN says:

    Rasmussen did a poll last week. He showed Coakley up by nine. As Rasmussen does a predictive poll and not a snapshot poll, if his numbers move closer, watch out.

  14. Toes192 says:

    If centrists and independents can stay away from insulting conservatives they will find allies to take down the liberal government now in place and start anew.
    But it has to be a partnership spanning center-left to as far on the right it can go…
    Can the centrists and independents maintain the momentum and synergy initially generated by responsible Conservatives?
    I stole those thoughts from somewhere… :))

  15. Neo says:

    Maybe the Democrats could do a repeat of the Wellstone Memorial service.

  16. Alert1201 says:

    “If centrists and independents can stay away from insulting conservatives they will find allies to take down the liberal government now in place and start anew”

    Don’t worry Toe, us responsible Conservatives are more thick skinned than that. Something that having principles does to a person.

    We still vote the same way no matter who insults us.

  17. […] turnout – and the Dems have no fire. But that broad coalition of opposition sure does. Brown has the independents on his side – and I would wager the senior citizens as well. All the polls show the more likely someone […]

  18. […] now, it looks like Scott Brown (centerfold – and why women should vote GOP) has a chance to take Ted Kennedy’s old seat.  If that happens, it will signal a political tsunami to […]