We come to it at last. The final weekend, the final push, the final group of voters to decide. And the headline news is McCain finally pulling ahead in a national poll (if only for a day). “Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. […]

Tonight I continue my monitoring of the two families of polls being produced this year by pollsters in order to provide our readers insight into how the presidential race is playing out based on two  different assumptions on turnout models. The tracking polls in the ‘traditional’ family use historic voting trends to weight things like […]

Sorry for the dearth of posts, but have to earn the rent. Some wild data out today. Many polls are drifting back to Obama slightly (more on this later in the Nightly Bi-Poller). But here are some interesting nuggets until we get there. Governor Rendell admits Obama is possibly in a statistical tie with McCain […]

Tonight I continue my monitoring of the two families of polls being produced this year by pollsters in order to provide our readers insight into how the presidential race is playing out based on two  different assumptions on turnout models. The tracking polls in the ‘traditional’ family use historic voting trends to weight things like […]

For those interested in an expert opinion on early voting and polling drop by DJ Drummond today.

Update: For those interested in an expert opinion on early voting and polling drop by DJ Drummond today – end update If early voting in Florida is any indication what will happen across this country come next Tuesday (and there is little reason to assume it will be some crazy outlier well outside the norm) […]

I know I am an unknown and anonymous blogger whose mathematical skills can easily be questioned, but it is just strange to see how slow some light bulbs are turning on in the news media. As I noted last night, the poll confusion is not confusing at all.  There are two families of polls out […]

McCain has allowed some of the campaign’s internal poll information to come out to the public – probably to give hope and energy to his base and generate some news.  I am sure both objectives will be achieved. Here are the more interesting tidbits: The campaign is functionally tied across the battleground states … with […]

When NASA or the DoD need to track a satellite we use multiple parallel models to account for gravity, solar pressure, the height and drag of the atmosphere (what little there is at orbital altitudes) and a variety of other models. We update the measurements in all these factors and run statistical models, weighting newer […]

Tonight I continue my monitoring of the two families of polls being produced this year by pollsters in order to provide our readers insight into how the presidential race is playing out based on two  different assumptions on turnout models. The tracking polls in the ‘traditional’ family use historic voting trends to weight things like […]