Nov 04 2008

First Exit Poll Hints

Published by at 6:14 pm under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions

Update: (sorry folks, starting to put the latest at the top and not the bottom after the ‘Major Update’). Panic in MN for Obama, this could be a night for the history books.

Major Update: If these are the pro-Obama exit polls it will be an EXCELLENT night for McCain. Obama +4% PA, +2% VA, +1% FL, +1 OH and -2% NC. As I said before if there is a surprise in the exit polls it will show on the news media faces. If McCain gets VA and PA he will be President, and Sarah Palin will be the next President! H/T Geraghty.

– end update

This just came up on Drudge:


That doesn’t look like a big blow out for the Dems. Doesn’t look like Obama coattails. Why not post the Presidential hints? I think I need to go watch CNN and MSNBC and check out the body language.

Update: Started by watching NBC 4 here in DC (local). At the discussion was fascinating. The discussion was mostly about an unreported ‘X Factor”. Mason-Dixon representative Larry Harris explained how the battlegrounds were very close and both candidates under 50%. He noted that most undecideds could shift to McCain and pull out a win. I know these people have seen some early exit polls, I think something is happening behind the scenes. I was expecting more on the coronation of Obama.

Update: Fox now reporting on exit polls with Brown (Dem) and Steele (GOP). So far Obama has the ‘new voter’ group, but Brown doesn’t look happy (probably because the numbers were flat). Steele is being complimentary and upbeat. Steele is not bothered at all by the new voter numbers.

With white men  McCain is +10 IN, +13 OH and +19 in VA. That number in VA tells me Obama probably did not take VA. Steele was upbeat and Brown was really down about it. 

10% of voters new (same as 2004), 36% men. Late deciders in VA went McCain.  Looks like VA stays RED! I think OH does too.

Update: CNN – Blitzer bummed, Carville bummed, Bill Bennett upbeat. Blitzer notes that economy was number one issue, and then notes McCain could be one of the few Reps to do well on that issue. Blitzer not sure whether Obama supporters will be happy or sad. Bennett is just beaming.

Update: Drudge has this up:


Same bias as the regular polls or validation? Only tonight will tell.

7 responses so far

7 Responses to “First Exit Poll Hints”

  1. Jacqui says:

    I have heard from several sources that Obama campaign is seeing much closer numbers in MN than anticipated.

  2. browngreengold says:

    I sense a disturbance in the force.

    I suspect the exit polling data is not looking good for Obama because if the numbers were reflecting the predictions we’ve been hearing for weeks the MSM and their tingly-legged employees would be shouting it from the Empire State Building.

  3. davem says:

    Just watched Carville and Bennett on CNN with Blitzer. Carville did not seem his usual spunky self, looked even sad.

  4. Jacqui says:

    From Campaign Spoyt on NRO

    Obama by 4 in Pennsylvania, by 2 in Virginia, trailing by 2 in North Carolina, leading by 1 in Florida, leading by 1 in Ohio.

  5. gwood says:

    If there’s trouble for Obama in Minnesota, then he can’t be up 15 in Pennsylvania.

    I’ve been saying all along that the hockey moms in Mn and Wis will turn them red. We’ll see.

    I’m in Central Va, and I sense that turnout here has been record breaking, good for the good guys.

  6. RickE says:

    keep the info coming AJ. I am not turning on the TV until 7:30 or 8:00 because i want to see real numbers and real data…not speculation from some sample I cannot fully trust.

    then turnout and %s from counties can be analyzed and one obtain a much better feel for it.

  7. DJStrata says:

    Precincts are reporting in already in NH, ME, IN, KY. Showing on