Nov 02 2008

The Amazingly Fading Obama

Published by at 7:07 pm under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions

Just a little over a day before election day and Obama is fading fast in key battleground states and in the EC projections. A month ago Obama was projected to have a 330-175 Electoral College blow out. But now he has seen once strong battleground states drop into ties this weekend. Take VA, which is now down to +3.8% – a statistical tie in a state Obama once sported a +8.2% lead. 

And what about OH, where a one time 6.6% lead is down to +4.2%. And look at PA, where a dominating +14% lead is down to a nail-biting +7% and still falling. We can see this shift in many states. MO shows a one time +3% lead for Obama is not a +1% for McCain.

RCP has now dropped Obama’s EC votes down to 278 as the most of the country drops into the toss up category – clear momentum for McCain-Palin. On Friday Obama had a 179 EC lead and since then he has lost over 50 EC votes. That is a lot of erosion in one weekend. There is all this talk about how pollsters and pundits would not go premature like 1948 and call this race for Obama before election day. Seems they were unable to control themselves and did just that.

4 responses so far

4 Responses to “The Amazingly Fading Obama”

  1. djl130 says:

    I just hope if McCain wins – he wins by enough to make it clear he won. I also hope sanity prevails. I know we are sane – but if Obama loses – are they?

  2. Terrye says:

    According to Time McCain is in a good position to win every red state.

  3. […] Reader ‘peakspike‘ pointed to a very interesting analysis on the current polls in the battleground states and what is required of the PUMAs to swing McCain-Palin over the top and on to victory. It is by Paul Marston (biography) and the analysis basically uses historic voting trends and current poll averages from RCP to determine how many PUMAs it takes to win each battleground state.  […]