Oct 28 2008

McCain’s Internal Polls Looking VERY Good

Published by at 11:02 pm under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions

McCain has allowed some of the campaign’s internal poll information to come out to the public – probably to give hope and energy to his base and generate some news.  I am sure both objectives will be achieved. Here are the more interesting tidbits:

The campaign is functionally tied across the battleground states … with our numbers IMPROVING sharply over the last four tracks.

As other public polls begin to show Senator Obama dropping below 50% and the margin over McCain beginning to approach margin of error with a week left, all signs say we are headed to an election that may easily be too close to call by next Tuesday.

The race has moved significantly over the past week, closing to essentially tied on the last two-day roll. These gains are coming from sub-groups it should be possible to sustain over the next week, including:

  • Non-college men;
  • Rural voters, both men and women;
  • Right-to-life voters; and most encouragingly;
  • We are beginning to once again get over a 20% chunk of the vote among soft Democrats.

Seems the PUMAs and Blue Dog – Reagan Democrats are coming home.

Finally, in terms of critical improvement, even as this track shows more Republicans voting for us than Democrats supporting Obama, we are witnessing an impressive “pop” with Independent voters.

This has been the week where “Joe the Plumber” has literally become a household name. An astounding 59% of voters in these battleground states have heard “a lot” about this story, 83% have heard “a lot” or “some” about this episode.

In our tracking, now 59% of battleground voters describe Senator Obama as being a “liberal,” a percentage that is higher than previous Democrat losers Gore/Kerry, and significantly higher than for President Clinton and President Carter.

A majority (54%) of voters profile as saying Senator Obama is more liberal than they see themselves politically.

Public Opinion Strategies has been using a 1 to 10 scale to help look at self-described interest in the election since 1993. In 1996, in our last track, 48% of voters described their interest in the election as a “10.” In 2000, the last track was 54% saying “10.” Remarkably, in 2004, our last track had self-described “10s” at 75% of the electorate.

You need to understand we are witnessing a day-to-day trend of serious magnitude as self-described “10s” increase in every roll.

Last night, 81% of voters described their interest in this election as a 10! Wow.

In today’s terms, that could mean breaking the barrier of 130 million voters!

There is simply no model that begins to know or predict the composition of the electorate at this level of turn-out.

Let me be clear here – the Democrats alone cannot be generating that kind of voter interest. 81% means both sides are excited and coming out to vote.  Say good-bye to those ridiculously biased voter turnout models!

And who could be generating that kind of wave in the electorate? Gee, let me guess?  Could it be the woman whose debate with Joe Biden now stands as the most watched debate of all time in America? Could it be the woman who command huge crowds that can rival Senator Obama’s? Could it be the woman from the heartland and Main Street of America? Could it be …

I saw the Republican Party today, standing in line to see Palin at Shippensburg University. The line stretched for more than half a mile – people waiting outside for hours on a windy 40-degree day – and though the doors opened more than two hours before the event, security still wasn’t able to get everyone through the metal detectors by the time the rally began. Let’s see Buckley or Kathleen Parker or Ken Adelman draw a crowd like that.

If somehow John McCain pulls off a miracle Nov. 4, it will be in no small measure due to the excitement that Palin has brought to the ticket. Let the cynics attend a Palin event and try to imagine those crowds turning out for, inter alia, Tim Pawlenty.

As I have been saying there is a silent, angry wave building that is fed up with the DC/NY Political Industrial Complex (which includes the dying liberal media, the elitist talking heads, the lobbyists and power brokers, the hyper-partisans and the politicians). And since the political establishment’s candidate is Barack Obama, of course the nation’s voters – who believe by 90% this country is being led down the wrong track – would oppose anyone that is pushed by the very people the voters are rejecting.

We are about to make history – President Dewey kind of history.

26 responses so far

26 Responses to “McCain’s Internal Polls Looking VERY Good”

  1. clintsf says:

    I still say I’d love to see Sarah Palin give a speech in Murtha’s district themed: We’re sick and tired of being called racists.

    But I’ll trust the professionals to know whether or not that would backfire among the voters who are just making up their minds, or change the narrative in a bad way, leaving an opening for Obama…

  2. […] on October 28, 2008 The Strat-Sphere: McCain’s Internal Polls Looking VERY Good Atlas Shrugs: COUP ON THE US: DEMOCRATS DENY OUR SOLDIERS THE RIGHT TO VOTE, HOMELESS USE PARK […]

  3. clintsf says:

    Off topic, but, what ever happened to your header: “McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!”

    Obama’s current “closing argument” speech contains the line: “One week until we change America.”

    ( HT: http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjVhODFiOWY3ZjUyYTVkNjkwYjg5NDFlZTYzODRjZDU= )

    I’d be shocked if McCain or Palin doesn’t leap on that with your tag line.

    And I’d bet it’s worth a few points among undecided voters…

  4. Phineas says:

    That’s why I hang around here: that sense of (real) hope. 🙂

  5. bush_is_best says:

    if polls “approaching the margin of error” from the bottom are “VERY good”… then what about polls that are above the margin… very very very good?

    if 44% is good… uh, whats 48%?… whats 52%? kinda sorta better maybe?

    “If somehow mccain pulls of a miracle”? yeah… “please god, grant 42% of us a miracle, if you would…”

    “President Dewey kind of history”… ok, I’ll go with that…

    Dewey was the republican…right? Dewey lost 303-189, right?

    ok, you can have that…


  6. crosspatch says:

    What if … and this is PURELY speculation … what if some of the people working for the polling companies are Obamanistas and are marking down a result different from the one they are actually getting from people as they poll. That is just about the only way I can understand why some polling outfits are consistently reporting figures that are so way out of line with the others.

  7. bush_is_best says:

    “What if… [and this is PURELY speculation]… monkeys fly out of my butt?”

    Wayne Campbell

  8. OBloodyhell says:

    > “What if… [and this is PURELY speculation]… monkeys fly out of my butt?”

    What if… and this isn’t speculation, but pretty much a proven certainty — you’re a complete idiot?

    Ah, what then?

  9. crosspatch says:

    People like to believe things that validate their own opinions. When one holds a strong opinion and one sees a poll that is way out of line with all the others yet validates one’s own feelings, it would be natural to give a lot of emotional weight to that poll.

    But trying to take emotion out of it and just looking at what I am seeing for a moment, this is the view from here:

    I live in the Silicon Valley area of California. People are generally very busy and don’t get political because it distracts from their energy of creating the next great thing. But even given that, I have seen a marked drop in the number of signs, stickers, chatter around the coffee pot. There is absolutely no groundswell of Obama-mania in this area. Nothing, nada, zero, zilch. The past few days I have been making it a point to look for lawn signs and stickers. Practically zero. There are a lot of signs for ballot initiatives and local candidates. NOTHING for presidential candidates.

    I know of two homes that have McCain lawn signs but they are buried way back in the neighborhood and not along any of the main roads. I have not seen a single Obama lawn sign in either the town where I live nor in the town where I work. On my daily commute I *might* see ONE bumper sticker. In fact, I see more “W04” stickers than I see Obama or McCain stickers.

    It just doesn’t appear that there’s any “there” there when it comes to some kind of overwhelming Obama support in this region of California (I work about 20 miles from home so my commute can vary from 30 min to an hour depending on time and I see a LOT of bumpers on the freeway).

    People here bust their rear ends to actually produce something and I don’t think this is a culture conducive to “spreading the wealth”. When someone has worked for 20 days straight and does so often, and generally puts in a minimum of 16 hours a day, working from home long after the office is closed … the last thing they are going to want is their earnings that they busted their buns for becoming the people’s money to be spread around.

    The very notion that the government has the power to decide how much of what I earned that I am worthy of keeping and that my earnings really belong to “the people” is nuts. If nothing else, if this comes to pass, it is going to absolutely shut down productivity. People don’t do this stuff because they enjoy it, they do it because it is lucrative, or has the potential to be. You might work for six “pets.com” joints before you get an early gig at a Google. But for Obama to say that suddenly that money you put in hours and hours to make suddenly belongs to someone else who is deemed to be “more worthy” is just plain insulting.

    When it comes to economics, Obama is an idiot.

  10. crosspatch says:

    And McCain might be an idiot when it comes to economics too, but McCain seems to want to do the best possible thing an economic idiot can do … leave the market alone and let millions of Americans and small businesses make individual decisions. We will try things and sometimes it won’t work, others will try other things that will succeed beyond their wildest dreams. People will emulate what works, and people will learn from the mistakes of others and not repeat them. Overall, we get stronger that way. But when government tries to manage the economy and marches the whole thing off a cliff by making national decisions on how things should be done, it always fails. Because it only takes one mistake to ruin a business, a person, or a country. And mistakes come more frequently than success.

    McCain wants to leave us alone to make our own decisions. My mistakes won’t ruin the country. My neighbor’s business mistake won’t ruin my family. But Obama wants to be, as we said in the Army, “a lieutenant with a screwdriver” (which aside from a corporal with a clipboard, is the most dangerous thing in the world). He wants to tinker with our economy.

    No thanks.

  11. dave m says:

    Hello Crosspatch,

    Since you live in Caly, I decided to look up that state on the AOL poll
    they’ve been running weekly for months.

    Based on a sample of 13000 votes, McCain is winning 59-39

    Interestingly the State shows 44% registered to vote as Democrats
    vs. 33% registered to vote as Republicans. So if the poll reflects
    any truth out there, substantial numbers of democrats are crossing over
    to McCain.

    Of course the poll could be wrong, but I have no explanation for why I
    would suspect it should be suspect other than it shows McCain winning.

    I have been distrusting of all news and all polling for the last month.

  12. robert c verdi says:

    just vote.

  13. Aitch748 says:

    I really hope that our side does better than “too close to call” because “too close to call” will mean that (1) ACORN and the Obama machine will cheat to try to give the election to Obama, or (2) we’ll get to watch this election go on and on in the courts.

    That said, I agree: Just vote. Vote, drag your friends to the polls to vote, and hope for the best. We do have something like four million Hillary supporters (Democrats) on our side this time around, and some unknown number of people SAYING they’ll vote for Obama but who won’t do it when they’re actually standing in the voting booth.


  14. AJStrata says:


    Did you do any math out of high school??

    ROTFLMAO! Dude, if the math keeps large chunks of metal from crashing on your head it is pretty solid. But you have to understand how to use it.

  15. […] 29, 2008 · No Comments via the strata-sphere McCain has allowed some of the campaign’s internal poll information to come out to the public – […]

  16. dave m says:

    Is there a big tape-a-palooza coming?

    Hard to keep up.

    There’s the supposed African Press International audiotapes of Michelle
    Obama having some sort of a rant and allegedly Fox News has them
    and will use them “soon”.

    Then there’s the audiotape held by Berg supposedly containing
    Obamas paternal grandmother, the one he recently “visited”,
    telling that Obama wan’t born in Hawaii but in Mombassa Kenya and
    she was in the delivery room. But Bergs busy today, asking for a
    writ of centorati at the Supreme Court in his Obama’s ineligibility
    case. Still, you’d think he could just get his secretary to release it.

    Also there’s video of Obama at a party in 2003 heaping praise on
    some terrorist and supposedly the LAT has this and won’t release it,
    though as Atlas shrugs points out, there are likely more than one copy
    and various people have offered about $200,000 in reward for them.

    Will any actually see the light of day?

    Lots of minds want to know, surely.

    Note: Drudge is running the big headline, Gallup Obama Lead down to
    just 2%

    Hmm, I’d say that’s not only inside the margin of error but also inside
    the Bradley effect, if such an effect exists.

  17. VA Voter says:

    “We are about to make history – President Dewey kind of history.”

    So much for not making a prediction.

  18. AJStrata says:

    Sorry VA Voter – weak moment

  19. […] we saw a McCain campaign memo that claimed the race was tightening quickly and McCain-Palin have a good shot next week. Now an […]

  20. OBloodyhell says:

    > Hmm, I’d say that’s not only inside the margin of error but also inside the Bradley effect, if such an effect exists.

    I’d point more to an “Inverse Bradley Effect” — when any indication that one is not voting for Obama is an opportunity to be called a racist, one may well indicate one is voting for Obama to avoid the racist charge, despite having no intention of voting for him, for reasons which have not the slightest thing to do with racism.

    In other words, one may indicate a position to avoid the racist charge/confrontation without having the reason for the position itself be racist.

    It’s a subtle difference, but an important one.