Oct 13 2008

Polls Tightening, Political Industrial Complex Off It’s Collective Rockers

Published by at 11:45 am under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!

Major Update: Seems we have more proof of how bad the polls really are for Obama:

As I mentioned yesterday, my brother is paid staff with the McCain campaign. Two nights ago there was a conference call, where they released internals on GA, VA, and OH.

McCain was up HUGE in those states. They are not worried about those states.

If McCain is not worried about VA and OH, the PA is probably in play and has Obama and the Dems in a near panic. I said it weeks ago, but the race will be determined by PA and VA, and if either candidate can take both it means a lot of states will swing as well and this will be an electoral landslide. H/T Kim Priestap – end update

It seems we have a tightening race, if one looks at the daily tracking polls out there today. But first I want to focus on a couple of polls out recently for what they indicate about the lack of quality in the polls. First is the Newsweek poll which Jim Geraghty, over at The Campaign Spot, assessed and determined was pure BS:

You have McCain winning Republicans, 89 to 7. You have Obama winning Democrats, 91 to 5. …  You have McCain winning independents by 2 percent, 45 to 43.

And this adds up to an 11-percent Obama lead in your latest poll.

Of course this doesn’t add up. The only way to create an 11% lead with a tie like this is to assume Obama gets an enormous surge of support and no Hillary supporters defect to McCain. It is that last assumption that kills most polls and makes them garbage. But even the first assumption is way off. Independents will select the winner, and there are many independents truly excited over Governor Palin. Her crowds rival Obama’s, her debate audience surpassed that of Obama’s by millions. And then there are the angry, populists crowds out there railing against Obama. I see the intensity factor rapidly becoming a draw.

I have to laugh at all the idiots crying foul about a populist uprising against Obama headed by Governor Palin. After decades of the left claiming the GOP was responsible for the dragging deaths of gays, and would starve children and old people to feed corporate coffers, the idea that a woman has come out of the Northwest and called out the politicians for being elitist, cliquish, snobs who have no connection to the American People (but sure find time to hang around the terrorists like Bill Ayers) has the Political Industrial Complex stumped. The more they wail, the more Americans realize the best punishment for DC is to send in Sarah to kick some butt.

Victor Davis Hanson dissects the wailing of the elitists left and right best – so I won’t go into it in detail. The point is the temperature is rising because the anti-Obama forces are starting to roil. Which makes optimistic turnout models for Obama very risky. The folks fed up with DC are fed up with pollsters, the news media, the talking heads, the deal makers, the lobbyists, the power brokers and the politicians. They realize a power hungry clique has taken hold of the country’s levers of power and have been feeding them BS and keeping them in the dark for years now. But Americans are not mushrooms and they can make their displeasure known.

With a 90% wrong track numbers, historic lows for Congress, historic lows for the news media there is more of a chance there is a quiet and determined wave about to smash DC than there is a wave to anoint DC’s “chosen one”. And this is Obama’s Achilles Heel coming into the final stretch as the leader in the race. Everyone in the dungheap of DC is rooting for Obama now. Conservatives like Brooks are calling the lady from the backbone of America a ‘cancer’. Well, America sees Brooks and his cronies in DC as the cancer. The way to excise that cancer is to bring in what the cancer fears most.

So let me get to the next poll out recently, the newly schizoid Gallup Daily Tracking Poll. I am being very cheeky here because Gallup is doing what I have been asking pollster to do for a while now – show us a range of turnout model predictions. Just like a storm track cone, different turnout model assumptions give different trajectories. So Gallup as done the nation a favor here and shown how turnout assumptions are driving Obama’s tilted numbers in many polls. Here’s their data:

Now we can see as fact how turnout models are twisting the polls (like the Newsweek joke we discussed above). First, note how Obama’s support is very large in the general pool of ‘registered’ voters. This is the standard tilt to the left of the general population, who don’t all vote. When you focus down on ‘likely’ voters we see the classic 3-5% shift to the right (which will be there all the way to the final voting day). Obama’s lead goes from +7% down to +4% using the classic polling model. 

Now Gallup tries to inject some momentum in the race by attempting to relate the willingness to talk to pollsters as momentum for one side. As long as the willingness to talk to pollsters is directly tied to willingness to get out and vote, this is could measure any momentum for Obama. But given the fact Palin attracts the same or bigger crowds, even on national TV, I seriously doubt Obama has the edge in momentum anymore. Sarah Palin was a risky gamble, but she may well prove decisive. If you look the Gallup Numbers related to ‘intensity’, Obama jumps back to a +6% lead.

The Gallup Internals show a different race. The party affiliation numbers show a tie race, and maybe a McCain lead because he is winning the middle (Obama takes +3 for the middle left-right groups, but McCain takes +9 from the hardcore independents). I would not be doing what RCP is doing and even factor in the Gallup ‘intensity’ numbers, because if this was a complete analysis there would be a scenario that would have reasonable assumptions that favor McCain. Like the fact Palin and anger at Obama’s liberal leanings will offset any Obama surge – just as Hillary supporters kept Obama from winning the primaries outright. There is a model that should be run where McCain’s supporters are grossly under measured due to the fact the will not participate in the polls. And that could mean the third possible trajectory is a +5% lead for McCain. 

In my mind that makes the +4% lead from the conventional poll model the middle of the spectrum of possible outcomes, not the most pro-McCain scenario.

Newsweek did the same thing but without telling their readers. They took what would be a historically tied race and gave a huge (and unproven) boost to Obama, basically deciding he would bring out 11% more voters to the polls.  And he will do this relying on the most unreliable of voters, the young.  

I have seen and documented this tilt in poll internals for weeks now, as I did with the Morning Call PA Poll. That poll hillariously has a 15% difference in voter turnout between Dems and Reps, even though that state was won by George W Bush by only 2.5% in 2004.  I don’t for a minute believe McCain-Palin is down by 15%, I am not even sure they are down 5%. This poll is why the PA numbers are so far off and you will find Obama in that state trying to hold on to any lead he may have.

As of today Obama’s one time +8% lead in the Rasmussen poll has shrunk down to +5% in the last week. At this rate of decline (if held steady and there is no reason to assume it will hold steady) McCain would win easily three weeks from now.

The Gallup numbers are even more stunning, going from +11% to +4-6% (depending on which model you want to rely on) in a week. Even the more optimistic models show that this rate of decline would result in a McCain win by the time we go to vote.

We may be about to see the next President Dewey.

Update: I want to agree with Hanson about why so many are jumping ship on Palin to save their careers in the Political Industrial Complex.

Second, with Obama now with an 6-8 point lead, some in the DC/NY corridor these last three weeks figure it’s time now to jump or at least sort of jump, since the train they think is leaving the station and there might be still be some space at the dinner table on the caboose. They also believe as intellectuals that the similarly astute Obamians may on occasion inspire, or admire them as the like-minded who cultivate the life of the mind-in contrast to the “cancer” Sarah Palin, who, with her husband Todd, could hardly discuss Proust with them or could offer little if any sophisticated table-talk other than the proper chokes on shotguns or optimum RPMs on snow-machines.

Not to mention keeping their mugs in front of the TV cameras and thus their paychecks nice and fat.

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!

48 responses so far

48 Responses to “Polls Tightening, Political Industrial Complex Off It’s Collective Rockers”

  1. Aitch748 says:

    “You are losing the election. You are behind in the polls.”

    Oh, you mean the polls that are weighted to grossly favor the Democrats? The one where 50% of the people polled were Democrats and maybe 30% were Republicans, with the result being that Obama is ALWAYS supposedly doing better than McCain, by anything from 2 points to 15 points? The polls that AJ and other bloggers have been picking apart over the past couple of weeks? Those polls?

  2. Aitch748 says:

    Oh, and while I’m on the “angry” meme, let’s see if somebody can come up with evidence that McCain or anybody connected with him did anything like this (i.e., sic the Secret Service against some private citizen because she was cold-called by the campaign and she told the caller that the candidate was a socialist):


    THERE’S your “angry” candidate right there — Barack Obama, a guy who is not at all afraid to use law enforcement agencies against private citizens who voice their criticisms too vigorously, “free speech” be damned — NOT John McCain.

  3. bush_is_best says:

    The news article – Legit… your take on it – BS political spin with a bias…

    C’mon crosspatch, straight talk… Obama does not stand for voter fraud. McCain does not stand for voter fraud. Of the millions of people involved across the country there are going to be dishonest people, passionate for their side, on both sides. Both sides do it. There is no truth to the fact that only Democrats attempt voter fraud and Republicans are sticking to some honor code.

    You cannot raise this argument without you yourself including info about the florida miscounts in 2000 or the released felons not being able to register when it was legal for them to do so, or the ohio purging of registered democrats in 2004… there are example of both sides doing it and very solid info saying it helped bush win tough states in his campaigns…

    Lets hope whomever is responsible for ANY fraudulent behavior is stopped and it remains as fair as possible… so the best man can win…

  4. bush_is_best says:

    I think every poll out there has Obama with a solid chance… why is that?



    Evil liberal media “reporting”?

    How about having a smarter candidate and a better story and not such a shi**y president currently? ever try that?

    Better yet… ever try even acknowledging that?

  5. The Macker says:

    Polls constitute the conscience of a liberal. If conservatives haven’t changed “their technology, morality and lifestyle”, well, good for them.

    To deny the media bias is to deny the obvious.

    To judge Sarah Palin on an edited, set-up, interview is to expose your limited horizon. She was right to dismiss those silly Couric questions. The Dems are upset that she doesn’t feed out of their troughs.

    You pretend to question her qualifications. Has there ever been a less qualified candidate for POTUS than Obama? She has more executive experience than the other three. And that is THE qualifying experience.

  6. breschau says:

    Crosspatch, one simple question:

    Is an invalid voter registration the same as an invalid *VOTE*?

    In other words, if those 5,000 registrations weren’t for real people, then… so what? Does this have any effect on the voting itself?

    The fraud here is being perpetrated *ON* ACORN, not *BY* ACORN. They are paying people to collect registration forms, and some of those unscrupulous people are turning in invalid forms.

    And the big result of this is – those forms don’t get processed. This does not affect one single, solitary vote for the Presidential election. Of course, since that doesn’t fit with your wingnut “ACORN IS EEEEEVIL!!” mindset, I expect you to simply ignore these inconvenient little facts.

  7. ivehadit says:

    Red flag alert. Some here don’t know of what they speak.


    And I also personally KNOW the Industrial Areas Foundation, founded by Saul Alinsky. I PERSONALLY KNOW community organizing.

    Some people are very foolish in their naivete.

    And who was ahead in the polls at this time in ’00 and ’04? And in ’88 and on an on. Always the democrat. But they didn’t win, did they?

  8. ivehadit says:

    And I love this from Mark Steyn via Powerlineblog:

    “Mark Steyn makes a good point:

    If Obama is elected in November, at G7 meetings, for the first time since time they began, America will have a more left-wing leader than any other member of the group – Canada, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, and Britain (and that’s before Gordon Brown loses to David Cameron). Right-of-center government throughout the western world – except Washington.”

  9. J.D. says:

    Obama lacks the judgment necessary to be President. Shoot, even Joe Biden doesn’t believe Obama is ready. I pray that McCain brings a copy of the letter signed by him and 18 Republicans sounding the alarm regarding the need to reform and provide more oversight to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from 2 years ago. Where would we be today had Franks, Obama, and Dodd taken the wads of cash out of their ears and listened.

    Obama got exactly what he wanted from ACORN when he paid them $800,000. He knows their history, their mode of operations, and their ability to invent voters. He is complicit in this fraud endangering our electoral process. And the fact that many of these applications are thrown out before they can become votes does not excuse the behavior.

    I did get a chuckle out of the reference to the 2000 election. That’s the one where Democrats came up with 8 ways to count votes, the Democrats designed a butterfly ballot that fellow Democrats say tricked them, and the one where Bush won every count. If Gore would’ve slipped ahead on any count at any point a legal injunction would’ve been filed with the Liberal FLA Supreme Court to immediately certify the election. Remember their sham hearings after the eleciton. The Democrats could not produce one person who was “disenfranchised” or “intimidated.”

    I can guarantee, however, that the Democrats will once again try to get military votes thrown out on technicalities like they do every 4 years. They sure do love our men and women in uniform and want every vote to count…

    And by the way, the Democratic party has always been the party of voter fraud. Couple that with old-fashioned, Tony Rezko-style Chicago politics and we have the perfect storm. Not to mention the fact that Democrats across the country continually fight voter i.d. laws that require a picture and put 0 burden on voters.

  10. breschau says:

    The ACORN meme might be my favorite of the political season.

    Because John McCain supports them too!

    OH NOES! What will the wingnuts do now?

    Here’s my suggestion – vote for Bob Barr. Please. Go ahead – show us the voting power of the truly “independant conservatives” (aka the GOP base).

  11. breschau says:

    So… how does this report on today’s polls feel to you?

  12. breschau says:

    I challenge any of you GOP hacks to respond to this:

    “Is an invalid voter registration the same as an invalid *VOTE*?

    In other words, if those 5,000 registrations weren’t for real people, then… so what? Does this have any effect on the voting itself?

    The fraud here is being perpetrated *ON* ACORN, not *BY* ACORN. They are paying people to collect registration forms, and some of those unscrupulous people are turning in invalid forms.

    And the big result of this is – those forms don’t get processed. This does not affect one single, solitary vote for the Presidential election. Of course, since that doesn’t fit with your wingnut “ACORN IS EEEEEVIL!!” mindset, I expect you to simply ignore these inconvenient little facts.”

    Put up or shut up, folks. You all look like cowards right now.

  13. scaulen says:

    I live in RI and What’s really weird is I’m not seeing that much in the way of Obama signs or bumper stickers even in the most liberal areas. Sure the college kids are showing the colors but they don’t vote. I remember all the Kerry stickers and lawn signs all over RI, but Obama is a no show. It’s really killed my plan of sticking S’s on all the Obama signs. Just don’t see how this guy is leading any pols?

  14. bush_is_best says:

    Its cool if we don’t agree – I’m sure that Obama, and McCain to some degree, will agree that opposing sides both have valid points… I of course have things to learn, that’s why I am on your conservative website, hearing what some of you foolios have to say… I expect to sway on a point or two, here or there… no flip flopping, just, you know, regular life where you gain ‘knowledge’ and ‘experience’ as you go… sometimes people call it ‘learning’…

    So, when somebody expresses concern over McCains temper, they do so because of what they have witnessed, what his colleagues say about him, and various news articles, like that one where he calls his own wife a “c*nt” in front of reporters.

    A good response would be, “yes, we are not proud of that either” or, “yes we admit Obama comes across as more even tempered and calculated in his statements, but we admire a certain fire in our candidate.”

    We got guys here taking the word ‘angry’ and comparing the presidential candidate to an outspoken group of critics. Not straight. Compare candidate to candidate.

    If the polls say are in favor of Obama, then they are. If history tells us to not take them as purely accurate, then we wont.

    If Sarah Palin is going to be VP, she needs to be able to answer anybodys question. Why is that so hard for you to understand? We want to know how smart they are. We want to hear how much they know, and what they will do. There is NO SUCH THING as a set up interview when you are at that level… If its biased, then kill it with your intellect. Turn the tables and show what you are made of…

    We are expecting you to go into incredibly complex, detailed discussions with foreign leaders on a wide variety of subjects with an incredible amount of savvy, where peoples lives and billions of dollars are on the line. Can we not expect you to handle an impromptu interview with Katie Couric? How do you think Putin will treat you?


    It is OK for you to say that you expected more from her.

  15. crosspatch says:

    breschau: we don’t know. ACORN hired specialists in identity theft in their Las Vegas office (people who had felony convictions for identity theft). Who knows where else they hired identity theft specialists, this is only beginning to be investigated in a major way.

    1. Not all of ACORN’s registrations are going to be able to be checked by election day. ACORN has been doing this for several years. Many of their previous “registrations” may have slipped through unnoticed.

    2. Many states still do not require a voter to show any identification. If there is a name on the registration roll and they claim to be that person, they can vote. All it takes is their say-so that the person on the role is them.

    3. People adept in identity theft are also generally good at creating false credentials such as getting drivers licenses and other identification in false names. Often this can be done by greasing the palms of the various workers in government departments. You might be surprised at what a couple of hundred bucks can buy. For $100 I can buy a social security card and ID from the local flea market.

    This has been going on for a long time and is only now getting checked. Also turning up are “dead people” who have both registered AND voted after their death.

    The Obama campaign paid directly to ACORN $800,000 to “get out the vote” which is turning into more of a “bring in the vote” effort.

    The Chicago machine has a history of election fraud going back decades. Obama moved the DNC from DC to Chicago.

    Not only are registrations in fake names showing up, but so are campaign donations to the Obama campaign getting around individual contribution limits.

    ACORN is working for the Obama campaign and has been paid by the Obama campaign.

    Many polling outfits base their polling samples on voter registration ratios. A skewed registration number skews the polling samples making the candidate appear more popular in polls than he really is in the population. This may sway people’s voting choices. If Obama were polling 10 points behind, it might discourage some Democrats from voting as it would appear to be a lost cause.

    But finally, it is just plain fraud. And that right there is reason enough for any decent citizen to want to distance themselves from the Obama campaign.

  16. […] Jay Cost over at RCP posted an analysis regarding polls and turnout models – something I have been on about for weeks now. It is an interesting discussion regarding Gallup’s succumbing to producing two likely voter model results as no one can gauge which side has rallied voter intensity (my post on Gallup’s models is here). […]

  17. missy1 says:

    You don’t suppose they registered any illegals, do you? There have been accusations in Texas. Naw, not ACORN.


  18. breschau says:


    That’s all nice, in a theoretical sense. But this is still a simple question:

    Do you have one single piece of evidence that ACORN has ever been involved in actual voter fraud (*NOT* voter registration fraud)?

  19. crosspatch says:


    So what kind of fraud they have been perpetrating makes a difference? Are you saying it is okay to support them if they have been involved in one kind of fraud but not another? Fraud is fraud.

    But there is all kinds of evidence that the Obama campaign engaged in voter fraud during the primaries. The documentary “We Will Not Be Silenced” goes into it. Aks people involved with the Hillary Clinton campaign. Read some of the more active Hillary supporting blogs.

    Since this election hasn’t happened yet, of course I can’t say they have been involved in voter fraud, unless absentee or early vote ballots turn up from some of ACORN’s registrants on election day.

    And since ACORN was pushing people to register and vote on the same day in states that allow early voting, I am faily confident that is going to turn out to be the case.

    ACORN works for Obama. Obama paid them and you have ACORN workers bragging about canvassing for Obama.

    It isn’t looking good and fraud is fraud.