Jul 28 2008

Obama Bombed In World Tour!

Published by at 2:57 pm under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions

I postulated below Obama was not going to get much of a sustained bounce out of his dismal and error prone (if not lying as when he claimed he was on a Senate Committee he was not on and supported legislation he opposed) world tour.  He simply demonstrated why he was the wrong man for the job. But I did no expect this big of a bombshell – McCain moving up 10 points in one poll:

Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among “likely” voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of “registered” voters. By both measures, the race is tight.

The Friday-Sunday poll, mostly conducted as Obama was returning from his much-publicized overseas trip and released just this hour, shows McCain now ahead 49%-45% among voters that Gallup believes are most likely to go to the polls in November. In late June, he was behind among likely voters, 50%-44%.

A “likely voter” sample is ALWAYS closer to what will happen in November than general public samples.  This is a truly stunning turn around for Obama in one short month that had a world tour and massive donations. If this holds up in other polls (which it might) then Obama and the Dems are in big trouble. Don’t think Obama’s mistakes on Iraq will not bleed onto the most unpopular Congress in modern times.  H/T RCP.

11 responses so far

11 Responses to “Obama Bombed In World Tour!”

  1. MerlinOS2 says:

    Today’s Gallup and Rasmussen show holding or slight close.

    If there is a bounce it looks to be gone by the weekend.

    The oddballs out there are those couple of polls in CA showing Obama up by high 25 plus margins which even for there are unheard of.

  2. MerlinOS2 says:

    Last week Rasmussen with 500LV had Obama up by 28 today they released a new CA poll that puts the spread at 10.

    Looks like the one was an out sider for some reason.

    Kerry took CA by 11 and Gore by 12 for comparison.

  3. MerlinOS2 says:

    At RCP if you look at the history of all polls for CA there have been major swings in the results back and forth for all the polling companies.

    Real weird 20 point swings for times when no major news could cause such swings.

  4. WWS says:

    My suspicion about the cause of these swings is simple – none of these polls have anywhere near the accuracy that the polltakers claim, even rasmussen. I think they have a +/- range of 20 points, at their best, but the polltakers know some tricks to make it come out towards the center of the error range, most of the time.

    I think the “science” of polling will turn out to be similar to the science of phrenology.

  5. Redteam says:

    I’m shocked, shocked to hear that phrenology didn’t work out.

    Polls are like thesis, You can use the results to prove what you want to prove.
    If you ‘want’ to conduct a poll showing Obama leading, just ask the question the ‘correct’ way and be sure to ask the ‘correct’ people.

    Didn’t you ever hear of the doctoral thesis, the thesis: ‘you can prove what you want to prove’ the result: they proved it.

  6. crosspatch says:

    Gallup is saying that the younger voters are falling off Obama’s bandwagon. Obama will probably lose more as word of his taking the George W. Bush “conditions-based” withdrawal schedule gets around.

  7. WWS says:

    Just ran across a “climate change” story that is completely off topic to this thread, so I apologize. But it fascinates me.
    “soft hail???”

    “For the first time since 1836 it has snowed in Sydney – at least that’s what the locals are saying.

    Meteorologists say technically it was soft hail, but that didn’t stop the locals making snowmen.”


  8. Dorf77 says:

    FWIW the margin of error refers to the method of calculation not the Question or the Selection of Participants. Something like a Prosecutor in front of a Grand Jury attempting to indict a ham sandwich for…..

  9. Terrye says:

    Maybe people are getting tired of the constant Obamathon on TV, I have virtually stopped watching TV news I am so sick of it.

  10. MerlinOS2 says:

    I know CA is a ‘little different’ from every one else but if you bought into the odd 25 plus margins then other states should be showing massive margins also and national would be much more split.

    The RCP average for CA is higher than past history now until those odd polls fall off the window.

    Now I can buy maybe that the real situation is Obama up by 15 or so and the polls are oscillating around that.

    Another odd feature of the polls out there right now is the major variation in the undecided numbers across the polls.

    Most are showing low single digits and some are showing up to 16% undecided.

    It would be odd for so many to be firm in their choice right now to push undecided that low especially in view of the PUMA factor right now.

  11. K.L says:

    Not only did he pretty much bomb as far as I feel, I do believe he committed a felony. Saw this on another blog………truly interesting. What does this fool have to do before he is called to account? He is not above the law. He is not the President. I don’t care who he is. This angers me. Don’t just blog about it. Do something if it angers you also. Write your Senator, the Attorney General etc….snail mail only if you want to be taken seriously. Don’t count on the media to pick this up. This is serious stuff!!!


    Obama the Criminal! Obama who committed a felony!
    Posted 2 days 3 hours ago by Pablo

    I wonder how many Americans actually care or realize that Obama committed an out right Felony this week not once not twice but three times so far.

    That is correct Obama has committed a Felony! He is a Criminal. Where is the FBI or the US Attorney not going to go get and bring home the Criminal!

    What did Obama do you may ask that makes me scream put him in jail? Its basic constitutional law! Obama broke the Logan Act found in 1 Stat. 613, January 30, 1799, codified at 18 U.S.C. § 953 (2004).

    The Logan act says:

    § 953. Private correspondence with foreign governments.

    Any citizen of the United States, wherever he may be, who, without authority of the United States, directly or indirectly commences or carries on any correspondence or intercourse with any foreign government or any officer or agent thereof, with intent to influence the measures or conduct of any foreign government or of any officer or agent thereof, in relation to any disputes or controversies with the United States, or to defeat the measures of the United States, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both.

    This section shall not abridge the right of a citizen to apply himself, or his agent, to any foreign government, or the agents thereof, for redress of any injury which he may have sustained from such government or any of its agents or subjects.

    So what was it that Obama has been doing and saying to break the Logan Act? Obama directly in his speeches and openly commented three times that, He Obama have made talks and assurances to other governments and their leaders either promises of policy or threats of actions.

    These talks and promises under cuts current US policy and foreign relations and harms the US not only today and the rest of the year but could cause extreme harm to US interest and economic ramifications should Obama not be president after the elections and these foreign governments expect the US to abide by promises made by an ignorant clueless junior Senator who has not even sat in the roll of a senator more than a total of 48 days since being elected. Obama used his election to the US senate as a spring board for the run for the presidency.

    But when Obama threatens Iran and then tells the US president what he has to do concerning treaties and policy as part of his Obama’s talks with foreign leaders and in open speeches made exclusively not for US citizen consumption then yea, Obama committed a Felony and should be arrested and brought home for prosecution!

    Obama having everyone media and the DNC as well as most democrats like Pelosi assumes that he Obama is above the law and that he can conduct himself in any manner. All Obama has done is to endanger US relations and could in the future cause harm to US citizens abroad through backlash of foreigners to US citizens if those foreigners think that the US is not acting in accordance to Obama’s statement and promises which should never have been said or conducted.

    A prime example of another is former Pres. Carter who went to the middle east during the second term of the Regan presidency and from that meeting caused an international incident and caused America to become targets and got 264 US soldiers killed by Carter’s promises and speeches made that was inconsistent with the policy of Regan. At the time, the PLO and Hezbollah thought that America has betrayed them because Regan refused to follow or do what Carter a private citizen at the time had promised to those people. Thus it set the back drop for America to be an enemy that has spiraled out of control and is one of the main reasons why America is so hated in the middle east today!

    Obama is making promises and making policy and undermining current US treaties, policy and current negociations with his idiocy!

    Obama is proving that he is clueless as to what the roll is of a president and is acting like a foreign espionage spy who is working to destabilize American relations of the current government!

    I doubt that the Democratic party will lift a single finger, but its not up to the democratic party! Its up to the FBI, the US attorney and the President of the US to decide if Obama crossed the line. Because if Bush says that Obama’s speeches and meetings have hurt any current US policy, negotiation or effected any relations, then Obama is guilty of a Felony!

    From my stand point, he has already done that. In Iraq, Obama has effected current negotiations and current relations with that government by interjecting his own policy over those of the current Administration. That is a direct violation of the Logan Act and is a Felony.

    Obama should have waited until he left Iraq and returned home to comment on anything he saw or experienced in Europe or the Middle East. By being proactive to interfere with current US Policy which will remain in effect for at the very least 10 months to a year before the next president can change it. Thus Obama could ruin relations or cause problems or new outbreaks of violence because of his stupidity!

    Obama is a criminal and needs to be arrested and brought home to answer for the crime of interference with the US government and the roll of the current president by breaking every point of the Logan Act. The Logan Act was created to prevent exactly what Obama did. It was designed to prevent stunts like what Obama has done and to prevent anyone other than the president or his representatives from engaging in policy or negotiations because frankly, Obama has not yet been briefed on anything concerning US security, threats, or other national interests which may effect the economy or other relations. Obama’s reckless actions should not be allowed.

    It should not matter if Obama has the nomination of the democratic party or not. You do not give a traitor a break just because he may be running for an office of this country even if that office is president.

    Its high time that our leaders start prosecuting their own who break the laws more frequently and with little respect to the law than most average citizens.