Jul 28 2008

Predicting Another “Dead Cat Bounce” For The Messiah – Updated

Published by at 10:26 am under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions

I get the feeling Obama’s small bump in the Gallup Daily Tracking poll will not last the week. I have been watching both the Gallup and Rasmussen daily polls to see how sensitive each is to the weekly news blitz. They each use very different polling methods, but over time track closely to each other. The big difference seems to be in how quickly they each detect shifts. The Gallup Poll seems a bit sluggish in this regard. In the latest Rasmussen Poll Obama’s the bounce from “we are the world” tour is already receding. So I am going to predict we see the same effect, delayed a bit in the Gallup Poll this week. The now impressive 9 point lead will drop to 3-4 points before Friday. Treat this prediction as an experiment to prove a hypothesis regarding the relative sensitivity of these two polls, it’s all for fun.

Update: Today Obama slides one point in the Gallup Daily. I expect we will see this accelerate in the coming days.

3 responses so far

3 Responses to “Predicting Another “Dead Cat Bounce” For The Messiah – Updated”

  1. […] I postulated below Obama was not going to get much of a sustained bounce out of his dismal and error prone (if not lying as when he claimed he was on a Senate Committee he was not on and supported legislation he opposed) world tour.  He simply demonstrated why he was the wrong man for the job. But I did no expect this big of a bombshell – McCain moving up 10 points in one poll: Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among “likely” voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of “registered” voters. By both measures, the race is tight. […]

  2. […] Yesterday I predicted Obama’s poll ‘bounce’ from his whirl wind gaffe tour would not last, and in fact he would drop back into a tie (or worse) with McCain before the end of the week. So far that prediction is coming true as we look at the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll numbers come in: […]

  3. […] I predicted that Obama’s world tour was such a disaster his lead would not survive the week. Here is what I said: So I am going to predict we see the same effect, delayed a bit in the Gallup Poll this week. The […]