Jun 26 2008

The Messiah Sinks

Published by at 9:58 am under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions

I know there are some polls out there with some heavy tilt towards Barack Obama, but I tend to watch Gallup which has been running a daily tracking poll for weeks now on the Presidential race and is showing just the opposite:

The reason Gallup is an interesting poll is it samples one of the historically more liberal sample – registered voters. This sample always polls about 3-5% to the left of what ends up happening in the voting booth. The fact is it is way to early to predict anything for November, but Obama (The Messiah) is sinking not rising. These other spot polls seem to be driven more by optimistic assumptions on voter turnout. Given how the liberal issues have been taking a beating recently I am not so sure there will be a Surge of support for Obama and the Democrats this year. Maybe it is just me and my naturally contrary views – but life usually tends to fight conventional wisdom and shatter the best laid plans and expectations.

3 responses so far

3 Responses to “The Messiah Sinks”

  1. Neo says:

    When I see this 15 point polls in favor of Obama being touted by such water-carrying organizations as Newsweak, I have to believe that this is physiological warfare .. merely trying to take the energy out of McCain’s campaign even before it really starts after the convention.

  2. BarbaraS says:

    Those polls were slanted towards the dimwits almost 2×1. Nothing like give an edge to your guy is there? The media makes up these bogus polls and then report them as news. Polls are not news and their polls are nothing but propaganda.

  3. dave m says:

    Barbara says “polls are nothing but propaganda” and I agree with her.
    If ALL the news orgs are spinning for Obama, why would we expect the
    pollsters to not do the same?

    Look, there’s this AOL poll, I know it’s not scientific, but the sample
    size is huge. It runs for a week, from Friday to Friday.

    The last one gave McCain 61%, about 200,000 votes I seem to remember,
    against Obama’s 39%, and further showed all states RED.

    What’s going on here? If anything, I think the internet leans left in
    terms of demographics. It would be interesting to get Jay Cost to comment
    on this one. Jay Cost is a political science and statistics graduate student
    who was the only guy I found in 2004 who got the Presidential election
    right. I’ll email him this question.

    He blogs over at realclearpolitics, if I learn anything more, I’ll report back.