Apr 22 2008
PA Predictions
Assuming Drudge has it right with Clinton’s internal polls showing an 11 point lead, and assuming the boost in voter registration is not favoring one candidate too much (and why should it be?), then I would say Clinton is going to have a very good day today. But I don’t think anything will be settled – this race has taken on a life of its own and refuses to be settled. As Newt Gringrich said yesterday on a Fox News interview Clinton will win by enough to show see is competitive but not enough to give delegates enough of a reason to dump Obama.
The fact is there is never going to be sufficient movement between the two liberal groups (blacks and women) to give the delegates any cover on their final decision. It is up to them and i am not sure they even agree in sufficient numbers to make a determination. The party is seriously divided and the far left is not going to stand for another moderate who waffles on their extremist agenda and the moderates are just not going to go to the fringes to hold power.
The party is in a death spiral and I don’t see how tomorrow changes it – except to make it worse.
If Hillary wins today (which I hope she does), we would be hearing from Howard Dean within the next few days, “Superdelegates, make up your mind!”
Not!
Ya think this will redefine both the Democratic and Republican parties? IOW, the Democratic party becomes the Republican party and the Republican party becomes the more conservative?
I doubt it.
An issue that came up last year may start to boil if Obama wins the nomination: Obama’s plans that would end up killing the NASA program, regardless of his intentions and supposed support of NASA.
As with his position on the capital gains tax, Wright, Ayers, Rezko, Khalidi connections as well as his choice of teammates, this shows his clear lack of understanding and judgment as a US president.
Oh, Bill Kristol said that he talked to many Democratic insiders within the last few days. They tell him that they have already given up on the WH but expect to keep the majority of both the House and Senate.
Operation Chaos continues!
According to Rush the Drive By Media is deliberately lying about which Dem candidate the republicans who switched parties for the primary will vote for:
From Rush’s show:
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_042108/content/01125107.guest.html
Now, in The Politico today, a story by Jeanne Cummings: “Dem Voter Surge Could Cut Clinton Margin.” Now, here’s the basic nuts and bolts of the story. “In Pennsylvania, more than 178,000 Republicans have switched their party ID to Democrat.” Well, 178,000 people have switched. Ninety-two percent of that number have gone to the Democrat Party. Republicans who registered as Democrats are 7% of the electorate for the Tuesday primary in Pennsylvania. They’ve taken a poll of people that switched party registration, and it was released by some polling outfit called Madonna, or maybe that’s somebody that works at the polling unit. It doesn’t matter. “Obama was the preferred candidate for 62% of these Republicans who have registered as Democrats. Clinton insiders said they are bracing for the same 60-40 split among newly registered Democrats,” so everybody thinks that most of the Republican registrants are going to vote for Obama. The Drive-Bys are out there pumping this notion on the basis that these Republicans actually love and are enamored of Obama. WJLA-TV Capital Sunday in Washington, Leon Harris is interviewing Charles Mahtesian from The Politico, and they have this exchange about me and Operation Chaos
Ed Morrissey has noted this morning that Obama’s fear of debating Hillary again (poor Katie Couric! boo-hoo!) is a very bad sign for his general election hopes. Obama’s entire appeal is based on his speaking ability and charisma; what’s it say about him when he falls apart under the first signs of pressure? McCain may not be the best speaker or campaigner, but he certainly doesn’t have a glass jaw – looks like Obama does. Does Obama really think he can flip away the William Ayres story with his finger?
And Hillary – now that she’s finally broken completely with Move-on, her November hopes are gone even if she gets through the primary. The height of hilarity would be watching Move-on run ads for Ralph Nader this fall – who else are they going to support? Hillary’s going to have to fight both left and right at the same time.
I think Ace of Spades said it best – the is the Best Primary Season Ever!!! ™
This is totally off topic – but if you ever thought you had a bad day, consider the plight of Fraser Dunn yesterday.
Park your car, sir?
“Employed to ferry the vehicle to the set of the new 007 film, Dunn succeeded only in delivering the $265,000 vehicle to the bottom of Lake Garda.”
or as another source puts it:
“The driver of James Bond’s Aston Martin DBS which plunged into an Italian lake during filming yesterday described how he cheated death just like the hero spy. Fraser Dunn, 29, was at the wheel of the £134,000 car when it skidded off the road and plunged into the icy waters at high speed. He was left shaken but not stirred despite being knocked unconscious by the impact and when he came to the car was at the bottom of the lake – at a depth of more than 150ft.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/04/21/wbond121.xml
I’m rather incredulous about the claim that he swam 150 ft to the surface – but whatever. This article is rather fawning, and ignores the unfortunate fact that while James Bond cheats death from the forces of Evil (or S.P.E.C.T.R.E.?) this man cheated death from a single car wreck caused when he tried to have way too much fun with somebody else’s fancy sports car.
ooops.
This is a link to an old Matt Gruening cartoon I’ve always liked which must catch the moment when he called his employer perfectly:
http://www.geocities.com/lifeinhellperson/lih001.html
I expect a big “Operation Chaos” turnout here in PA.
But give credit where credit is due.
Governor Ed Rendell (D-PA) started the current trend by telling Democrats in 2004 to switch to vote in the Republican primary to make sure that conservative Pat Toomey didn’t beat Arlen Specter, then switch back in time for the general election. Given that the Democratic nomination for POTUS was already Kerry’s by the time the PA primary came around, there wasn’t that much form them to lose by doing the dual switch .. and it’s completely legal.
Bill Kristol also said in 2003 the Iraq War was going to be short.
LOL.
Who believes anything on the subject by Limbaugh? He assured Clinton wasn’t even going to run for Congress.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODshB09FQ8w
Just for you, truthhard2take/preachingpatriot . . .
WWS
Ayers would indeed be trouble for Obama–except the WMD and other lies pushing America into the quagmire kinda sets priorities for the people–and puts a different proportion on Ayer’s crimes.
You just couldn’t resist coming back here and defecating on every post, could you?
I wonder what it is about this compulsively retarded trolls that they can’t help themselves but to just repeat the same lines time after time.
Sounds like… Cheney assuring that the insurgency was defeated…in 2004…5….6…..7….8.
The Iraq war and the Iraqi insurgency (if there ever was one) were over long ago. In fact, the Iraq war was over the minute Abrams tanks rolled into Baghdad. As far as Iraq is concerned it’s been nothing but rebuilding and holdover crime control since then. The war with Iran, however, is just getting started. The outcome in Iraq was never in doubt as long as the republicans were in charge.
Death spiral??
Ah, yes, nothing like 400,000 new registered Dems in PA to indicate a death spiral. The unnoticed big story of the election cycle is the massive voter registration for Democrats, including young voters and crossover moderate Republicans and independents.
This Surge to the Dems is echoed by money raising, as Obama outraises McCain on a 3-1 ratio, and Clinton outraises the Crazy Old Coot by a 2-1 ratio.
Meanwhile ARG shows Bush with a 22% approval rating, lowest in the history of the US presidency. McSame’s campaign promises essentially more of the incompetence and ill-advised governance of McBush.
And it’s the Demcorats in the DEATH SPRIAL??? ROTFL.
Can we say…Operation Chaos? OMG, LOL BIG TIME!
The dems are so cooked it’s just comical.
Keep believing that tripe, soothie. Just makes for more fun for us.
OPERATION CHAOS!!!!
Dhimmicrats actually think people registered because suddenly the idea-less Democrats appeal to independents/GOPers.
*giggle*
SS,
/Users/lumack/Desktop/PrimaryTurnoutsByParty3.gif
This link from Sabato, shows a poor correlation between primary turnout and general election results.
Why cite Bush’s approval rating and not congress’?
PP,
You can allege “WMD Lies” but you can’t prove them .
Sorrfy, here’s the link:
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=FRC2008011701