Jan 20 2008

OK, Who Is Out In ’08

Published by at 8:23 am under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions

After yesterday’s NV caucuses and GOP primary in SC we have some pruning opportunities. John Edwards is doing the political version of Keith Richards – he’s the walking dead. He thinks he is alive but just doesn’t know it yet, so he goes on. OK, bad joke about a great guitarist. But Edwards is out. Obama is not out. Seems he may have won the most delegates in NV even though he lost the popular vote. But even so I think he is going to romp Clinton in SC.

So is Ron Paul, time to take a bow wild man. I think Thompson has to admit he has not produced what it takes to win. He came in tied for 3rd with Romney, but I am not sure where he goes from here. If he can find one more target to prove to everyone he is capable of making a move then so be it. I don’t see it.

Huckabee is probably on his way out too. He has not won since Iowa. Is last minute pander to the amnesty hypochondriacs did not bring him over the top. He makes wild and outlandish statements which make McCain look calm and serene. I mean who would think we need to make the constitution a ‘Christian’ document? How is this better or different from those calling for a Muslim state? I don’t see much point in Huckabee staying in any more. If people want a preacher in their lives go to Church and enjoy it – that is where our religion belongs, deep in our communities.

Sadly I must say Rudy is all but dead. He has to produce in FL. Romney’s win in heavily Mormon NV is not impressive. McCain’s win in SC is. But he is winning because he can split his opponents votes and eek out micro pluralities. I am not sure Romney can stop McCain (or Obama or Clinton). I am sure Rudy could because soon we will stop looking for religion in our leaders and look again for national security. I don’t want government in my life, but I sure as hell want them protecting it. This may be what Rudy had hoped for – the ‘anyone but McCain’ forces pulling together. It can happen in FL. You add the Huckabee votes to Rudy’s votes and you get a win. If you add the Huckabee and Romney votes you get a slaughter.

Will it happen that way? It would be historic if it did. It is coming down to Romney-McCain and Obama-Clinton. Sadly I think the dems have an easy win no matter who is elected if that is the pool of options. Rudy makes life hard in TX, FL, NY and CA for any democrat. He is the only one who can pull that kind of pressure off and keep GOP hopes alive. The GOP cannot win taking Arizona or Massachusetts. They can win taking NY.

15 responses so far

15 Responses to “OK, Who Is Out In ’08”

  1. lurker9876 says:

    My brother complained about the early primaries. He thought the primaries and caucuses should be held at the same time to force people to make a choice on their own.

    While he’s right, I’m glad that the early primaries are forcing some of the candidates out because it’s helping me make a choice. Any of the remaining 3 candidates on the GOP side, I don’t have a problem voting. I still remain undecided.

    I’m surprised that Rudy hasn’t been able to get the votes or win a state yet.

    I’m not glad Duncan hasn’t been able to do well. Fred sounded promising but his record showed he’s gullible and lackluster. I’m glad Huck has no chance.

    I hope that even if Romney or McCain wins, many GOPs would use the “Any Republican but a Dem candidate”.

    Hope Ron Paul will never consider reentering the race as an independent. Hope Bloomberg won’t either. Hope the polls tell him he has no chance at all.

    Interesting that no one can tell who would win the Dem nomination at this point.

  2. ama055131 says:

    I live in South Fla. and early voted yesterday, I,m a Rudy fan but I stuck around with my wife for about a hour. And what I heard for that hour was at least 95% were voting for Rudy. I also spoke to 1 of the Romney workers who seemed quite depressed and told me since Florida opened for early voting he has seen the same voting pattern
    Rudy was overwhelming taking the early vote but Gov. Christ tax proposal was not going to get the 60%

  3. Rich says:

    McCain would romp in TX and FL, no doubt. You are crazy if you think that either state would go for Hillary or Obama. ONly your hated of McCain clouds this obvious point. McCain becomes very competitive in PA, and possibly CA as well. The only thing that would hurt McCain is that the conservative taliban give up on representative government and don’t vote for McCain to “punish” mainstream America. Those people are so crazy that they will probably do that. These cooks are scary. This is not a democratic approach to government.

    Then, like Stalin, they will try to give us a revisionist history about the need to purify conservatism. They tell us that 1964 was actually a victory rather than the defeat/utter rejection of conservatism. They tell us that we “needed” the 1960s and 1970s so to purify ourselves enough for reagan. This is Stalinist, taliban, Kmere Rouge type of thinking.

  4. Mark_for_Senate says:

    As far as McCain goes, he won’t get votes by being a populist and siding with a dangerous idealogy (proven a failure through centuries of trying). If McCain gets the nomination, the GOP will lose the WH. Apparently opposed to others on this site, I don’t believe it ‘crazy’ to stand up for one’s principles. The destruction of our freedoms will come through rampant liberalism under control of massive government. Party affiliation is irrelevant.

  5. MerlinOS2 says:

    Well lets see, it looks like Edwards is weak and Dennis K took in a whole massive 5 votes in Nevada. Those are the two darlings of the Nutroots who are being kicked to the curb by the rest of the dems.

    Romney I belive you are underestimating. Yes he took the Mormon vote in Nevada, but it was only 25 % of the religious base. He took in the most Protestant, Catholic and Other Christian votes according to the exit polls.

    He even beat Huck 43-13 Protestant 35-5 Catholic and 30-17 Other the only group he didn’t take was non religious which he lost to Paul 42-24. He beat Mac in his strength areas of 25-22 Catholic an 24-15 non religious.

    Even in SC where 62 % of the voters were Protestant and 13% Catholic and 19% other he did well and it was Hucks only strength
    Protestant Huck 34 Mc 31 Mitt 13 Catholic Huck 11 Mc 45 Mitt 24 Other Huck 42 Mc 29 Mitt 10.

    Now don’t tell the Mass where he was Governor was a hotbed of the LDS church or Wyoming and Michigan or NH.

    So you are being dismissive of the win in NV for a reason that simply is not supported.

    In NV Conservatives went Mitt 56 Mc 9 Huck 8 Moderates Mitt 37 Mc 27 Mitt 8
    In SC Conservatives went Mitt 16 Mc 26 Huch 35 Moderates Mit 11 Mc 51 Huck 21 Libs Mitt 9 Mc 47 Huck 20
    Most of those were pulled from Mitt by Huck more on religious as well as by Mc but Mc seemed to clearly win the state mainly on the strength of the liberal vote and Huck in his religion centered campaign is dragging in conservatives that would have made the others competative if Hucks campaign which just lost in his last great religious strength state of any size is skewing the whole picture for everyone else. It is giving the libs / moderates much more influence that they have ever enjoyed in the selection of the conservative candidate and all the exit polls show it from day one of the primaries. The social conservative wing has what is likely to be their last on only in a long time viable as they see it candidate and they are playing it for all it’s worth to the detriment of chosing the most qualified candidate in the right side contest. I think you got SC backwards Mc didn’t win, so much as Huck prevented everyone else from competing. If you took Huck out of the equation, Mc would have been in a tough close fight there, and the tone of the race if fairly debated would have worked more to Mc’s weaknesses. Even in SC the Vet vote was 36 Mc Mitt 17 Huck 29 Fred 14 Civilian Mc 32 Mitt 14 Huck 32 Fred 16 so Mc didn’t dominate in the military bunch. In NV Mitt was 48 MC 15 Huck 4 and Fred 13 with the vets and 52 12 9 6 with the civilians.

    Mc is getting to face his first closed primary state in FL and his strong liberal support may be significantly tempered there. So unless a lot of the moderates/libs have temporarily registered as Rep for the primary he will be facing a whole different test.

    All admit Rudy has been weak in the front states from not playing there and Huck’s false run has allowed Mc to gain at the expense of Mitt and especially Fred.

    If you look at the exit polls for all the states so far, the one who is most balanced across all religion, economic ,conservatisim/liberal/moderate and military he is the most balanced in support of the bunch without heavy biases in groups tilting each state for one or the other of the others.

  6. MerlinOS2 says:

    To make my last paragraph clear, Fred is the one who has shown all the balance.

    If the Huck false flag campaign was not there we would have a whole different ball game and all should realize it.

  7. owl says:

    McCain. Everyone knows I do not like McCain and I no longer like his sidekick Graham. I have reason. I do not trust them with my safety. That simple. No, I do not want him to be able to put his finger on the button. So there.

    These TWO sat on the committee that had the Power to stop labeling the USA as torturers. They had the Power to stop the feasting on Abu Ghraib. They enabled it. They enabled the Dems every step 0f the way on all this waterboarding, etc. Gitmo. You name it and these two used the judgement of a Sen Spector.

    I do not trust anyone…….from a car salesman up…….that looks you in the face and says “My friends, I will never lie to you”. Finish the sentence.

    And to top it off, after his victory speech, he gave an interview with Hannity. Remember when I commented on why I thought he might be a Kerry VP? He only said good things about ‘my good friend Kerry’ and a ‘hmmm, I’ll have to look into that’ about all things WH. Never a good word. Anyone else see that interview last night? He stayed true to form on his ‘hmmm’s’. Funny if not so sad.

    He might have made a good President 7 years ago. He has taken complete credit for the Surge. Pious. I am a hawk and I do not trust this man any longer. That sad and that simple.

  8. Terrye says:


    I think Huckabee has gone about has far has he can, but for heavens sake do not drag the whole Muslim thing into it. All he was talking about was trying to amend the Constitution. Just like Bush talked about amending the Constitution with the marriage act. The truth is an amendment is such a high bar that it is easy to make a suggestion like that and very hard to make it happen. He is not talking about lighting a match to the Constitution and replacing it with the Ten Commandments.

    As for McCain I would vote for him if he got the nomination. Those young men and women went to Iraq to fight for this country and if people let the Democrats win because of some whiney petulant selfish silly partisan nonsense come November, they have no right to even talk about safety.

    Really, if the Republicans win it will be inspite of themselves. Lindsay Graham and John McCain are far more capable of protecting this country than Hillary or Obama. And if people say there is no difference, then why should I ever bother to vote GOP again?

    And like it or not, Huckabee has proved himself to be a lot more of a force in the party than he was ever given credit for and the Republicans should keep that in mind before they disrespect him or his supporters. Without them, Republicans can not win.

    And I am getting really fed up with the threat I hear from so many that they will take their ball and go home if their guy does not win the nomination. Did it ever occur to anyone that if we all felt that way, we would all lose?

    I saw this over at Rasmussens:

    The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday also shows John McCain on top. It’s McCain 23%, Mitt Romney 20%, Mike Huckabee 17%, Fred Thompson at 12% and Rudy Giuliani at 8% (see recent daily numbers).

    Polling conducted last week in Florida showed a four-way tie for the lead. Rasmussen Reports will be polling in the Sunshine State again Sunday night. Even before his big victory in South Carolina, McCain was leading in two big Super Tuesday states, New Jersey and California.

    Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. All of the interviews for today’s update were completed before McCain was declared the winner in South Carolina. The next update is scheduled for Monday at 11:00 a.m.

    In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it’s now Hillary Clinton 38%, Barack Obama 34% and John Edwards 15% (see recent daily numbers). While the national polling remains close, Rasmussen Markets data now shows that Clinton’s status as frontrunner is once again as strong as it was before the Iowa caucuses.

    Looking ahead, Obama leads Clinton in South Carolina while Clinton leads in California, New Jersey, and Florida.

    In other Election 2008 news, the Democrats advantage on the Generic Congressional Ballot has slipped to single digits for the first time in six months. Separate polling data shows low expectations for Congress in 2008.

    Rasmussen Markets data gives Clinton a 66.0% chance of winning the Democratic nomination and Obama a 32.0% chance. On the Republican side, McCain is now given a 52.4% chance of winning the nomination. Mitt Romney is at 21.0% followed by Giuliani at 17.0%, Mike Huckabee at 4.9%, and Fred Thompson at 0.3%. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll.

  9. Terrye says:


    Oh please, would you honestly let a Democrat win because McCain and Graham are both opposed to torture? I think they went too far as well, but they are both veterans and they both supported the war even when it became very unpopular. They have a right to their opinions and while I disagree with some of what they say on balance they could have been a hell of a lot worse.

  10. Terrye says:

    And McCain was not Kerry’s VP. He made it plain he would not be, he made it plain that he supported Bush and he did support. I mean really, what is he supposed to say? That he hates Kerry, why would he do that? To appease people who would pick a president based on who they like? Well Bush’s Dad likes Clinton. So what?

  11. lurker9876 says:

    Owl, I understand what you’re saying. McCain was and still is my last choice. The only time I would vote for him is if he wins the Republican nomination.

    I still believe that the top 3 plus Fred could beat Hillary and Obama.

    I’m interested in the voter turnout across the country and whether the November elections would fool everyone once the Republicans and conservative independents are given the two or 3 choices to vote.

    The hispanic vote is also a concern.

  12. MerlinOS2 says:

    Remember we still are playing by their rules this time in Florida.

    Florida is the second penalty box state after Michigan. So all the same game playing tactics the dems used there and the nutroots Dem’s for Mitt game will be dusted off for a sequel.

    Much stuff to think over, for those that choose to think.

  13. dave m says:

    I’m just going to vote for whomever gets the Republican nomination,
    as long as it is not Ron Paul. Beyond that I don’t care much.
    I also debate at a couple of Conservative sites, and there are
    a few posters who are angry at this moment, and say that they
    would rather let Obama win (and join some fantasy hoped for
    underground revolution) than vote for McCain. Well whatever!
    I don’t think that sentiment is as deep as it is angry.
    I’m hoping we do get to hear about some other bits of news
    in the next six months. I noticed that Israel has successfully
    demonstrated true world wide ICBM capability. I think maybe
    we could give the elections a break until after super-duper Tuesday.

  14. Klimt says:

    It looks like Romney is going to get the nomination at this point. He is leading in the polls in Florida. If Thompson drops out, 73% said they will switch over to Romney even if he were to endorse McCain…. Right now my bet is Romney wins Florida…

  15. owl says:

    Oh please, would you honestly let a Democrat win because McCain and Graham are both opposed to torture? I think they went too far as well, but they are both veterans and they both supported the war even when it became very unpopular. They have a right to their opinions and while I disagree with some of what they say on balance they could have been a hell of a lot worse.

    You never heard me say that, Terrye. I give out a lot of personal opinions based on what I have read and observed. My opinion on voting in these dangerous times? I think about it as if I were president. Being faced with hundreds of decisions everyday, you do not have the option of those Grand Overseers. As President, you would have to make the decisions, be they good, bad, or ugly. Not being God, 100% correct would be stretching it? But you would still have to be The Decider. If a person diddles in politics and then does not vote, they are WIMPS. For these people, a non-vote counts as a vote.

    And McCain was not Kerry’s VP. He made it plain he would not be, he made it plain that he supported Bush and he did support.

    He made it plain that he supported a war in Iraq. No, he never supported Bush. The comment about Kerry’s VP above is correct. He was visiting MSNBC almost up until Convention time and doing his ‘hmmm’s’. I know what I watched and listened to and the reason I brought it up again was because he did the same exact thing in the interview. Exactly. But I agree……..who cares.

    I care because he talks out of both sides of his mouth. While being so pious as to call it the Straight Talk Express. He brags that they call him The Sheriff. He looks me in the eye and says “My friends, I will never lie to you”.

    He has a record and actions to examine. He can not gloss over all those years in the Senate and make us only look at his war record. I respect his war record. I do not respect a lot of what I have observed in his personal actions the last 7 years.

    I consider this the time to make our opinions known because it is the primaries…….not the election. I do not think I will be given the opportunity to vote for my candidate. The system…..don’tcha know?

    I do not like McCain but will vote for him over any Dem because voting for a Dem is a 100% sure thing against almost all I believe.