Jan 19 2008

GOP SC Prediction

Published by at 8:11 am under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions

I am truly not sure who will win between McCain and Huckabee. Yes, others have a shot but I don’t see enough movement in the polls to be convinced they will show up. Fred has been haunting the conservative talk radio shows – which I think is not helping actually. Again, this is an election moving away from the fringes of hyper-partisanship, so going on hyper-partisan talk shows is not sending the right signal. People are looking for those who can hold their principles and reach out across the aisle when they can and stay firm when they need to. America doesn’t know it yet but it is looking for the George W Bush in many respects.

But be that as it may, Fred is not moving enough in the polls enough, and neither is Mitt. So it comes down to McCain or Romney. I see one poll where Huckabee is rising. Most show a steady marginal edge for McCain – which means nothing in these days of lousy primary polls. My initial guess is it is Huckabee’s turn to win one and he pulls out SC. I think the conservative electorate is sending a message to all candidates – get a better message or no one wins.

Now the one thing that may work against Huckabee is his recent idiotic tack to the far right to evict all illegal immigrants. By no means a centrist (or Christian) position so that gaffe could cost him. No claim on how (or why) he intends to do this and what it would do to the War on Terror – which is rightfully our nation’s focus at the moment. This will be interesting to say the least. If Huckabee looses it will be the 3rd time a candidate pandered to the amnesty hypochondriacs on the far right and lost (Romney tried it in Iowa and NH). So if McCain wins maybe we can bury that silly fantasy once and for all and get serious about picking a President and not someone distracted and obsessed about the local landscaper or nannies.

As with the other states I would expect to see the GOP get crushed again in the turnout category for SC and Nevada (where I am sure Romney will hold his lead). It is a sad thing to watch knowing the massive increase in Dem voter turn out over 2000 and 2006 means those small margins Bush won by will be overtaken easily if the GOP doesn’t get Giuliani or McCain as the nominee. Sadly I think the GOP would do better with Giuliani who, unlike McCain, doesn’t force the party to follow all his quirks but respects the big tent concept of the GOP. Anyway, that is one prediction I feel comfortable making since it has been pretty consistent – the GOP will get swamped in voter turnout.

15 responses so far

15 Responses to “GOP SC Prediction”

  1. MerlinOS2 says:

    If you go to RCP and look at the latest poll by ARG you wonder if they polled late and caught the last minute deciders or just started sipping the bubbly a little early.

    Fred doubles ,Mitt’s people go into the tank for Huck and Rudy pulls less than Paul, or at least that’s what they are saying.

  2. WWS says:

    I think I shall be sick if Pastor Pander wins again.

  3. kathie says:

    I hope Mitt and Rudy are smarter then they look right now. I could vote for either.

  4. MerlinOS2 says:

    Due to time zones and stuff the estimates for results of the NV caucus are Rep out about 3:30 EST and Dem results about 5:30 if things go as scheduled.

  5. Mark_for_Senate says:

    AJ, I think Fred does well in SC. The MSM will be ‘shocked’.

  6. Dc says:

    Sorry, I can’t even say President “Huckabee”.

  7. Terrye says:

    I don’t know why people would be surprised that Huckabee went right on immigration, after all conventional wisdom says it is necessary. Never mind the actual fact that it has not one an election for anyone as of yet.

    I looked at what Huckabee said and in truth the stories are a little misleading. He has said pretty much what Fred has said, that the illegals will be dealt with by attrition after we enforce the law, no amnesty blah blah blah. The usual.

    I wonder about all that because evicting people or deporting people means that certain action will be taken, however, attrition means that it all just sort of happens. I think this is a way several of the Republican candidates are getting around the fact that actual mass deportation is a loser, but they can’t just give up and say people can stay. So instead they say they will create the circumstances whereby attrition will result in people leaving. Sure….

  8. Terrye says:

    People can say what they will about Huckabee, he is doing a lot better than Rudy or Fred. He is not the dunce some people like to think he is. He is a very smart politician.

  9. Terrye says:

    I think McCAin has a real shot at South Carolina. But who the hell knows. I make no predictions.

  10. Terrye says:

    Here is the quote:

    “Huckabee Vows to Send All Illegal Aliens Home” (Stephen Dinan, Washington Times) Mike Huckabee signed a pledge yesterday to enforce all immigration laws as president, oppose any amnesty or guest working provisions, and reduce the number of illegal immigrants in the country by attrition.

  11. owl says:

    I only have one GOP prediction and do not intend to repeat it often.
    Gloom. An idiot could have predicted what happened to the Congress majority and what it would have taken to change it (spines against the Dems).

    I am sitting here listening to FOX give their latest GOP poll of what is ‘the issue’……the economy. Sheeeeesh. Give me a break. That just happens to be the #1 issue for the MSM. They have beat that drum in the background for 7 years and the day the war had good news, I could feel the beat. The WarDance and Lying/Corruption Dramas had become old news. The part I still can’t believe is how much help they received from Pugs of all stripes.

    We desperately need Rudy vs Hillary. What he did for NYC before 9/11 was unbelievable. And this is not good enough? I have not seen one thing that any of the other candidates have done that even comes close. Nada.

  12. Terrye says:


    I would say from talking to people that the economy is the number one issue for most people. The price of gas and health care are concerns for ordinary people.

    I like Rudy too, but he screwed up. He might pull it out yet, but it was his idea to sit out the early elections. bad idea.

  13. WWS says:

    Huckabee’s trailing McCain by 7 percentage points with 27% in – tonight could be huge for Huck’s future chances, since this was probably his last best chance for an outright primary win.

    Thompson, stuck at 15% in spite of heavy campaigning, just isn’t going anywhere.

  14. lurker9876 says:

    The voter turnout in Nevada and SC may be interesting.

    Nevada had a bigger turnout for the GOP than the Dems.

    SC had a very high turnout for the GOP. How will this compare when SC has a dem caucus later?

  15. Terrye says:

    Voter turnout in SC was not bad. McCain did well. I hope this will put a stake through the heart of the illegal is illegal mantra.

    I don’t think McCain has any more quirks than Giulliani does. In fact I think their quirks make them interesting.