Jun 09 2007

What Next For al-Qaeda After Iraq?

Published by at 8:07 am under All General Discussions,Diyala,Iraq,Syria

Let’s just agree al-Qaeda is back on its heels in Iraq as more and more local Sunni tribes not only reject their brutality, but take up arms against them. I have posted on numerous articles covering this phenomenon that has turned the al-Qaeda stronghold of Anbar Province against them, chased them into Diyala Province, wherein the same process is being used now to remove them from that strongold. The US military is seeing such striking success with this approach it is applying it wherever there are hotspots in which al-Qaeda reigns:

In an attempt to drive out al-Qaida in Iraq, American soldiers in a Baghdad neighborhood have allied themselves with dozens of Sunni militiamen who call themselves the Baghdad Patriots — a group that the Americans believe includes insurgents who have attacked them in the past.

The Americans have granted these gunmen the power of arrest, allowed the Iraqi army to supply them with ammunition and fought alongside them in chaotic street battles.

“This is a defining moment for us,” said Lt. Col. Dale Kuehl, who commands the 1st Battalion, 5th Cavalry Regiment, attached to the 1st Infantry Division.

American soldiers in Amiriyah liken the fighters to the Minutemen of the American Revolution, painting them as neighbors taking the initiative to protect their families in the vacuum left by a failing Iraqi security force. Kuehl said that, in their first week of collaboration, the Baghdad Patriots and Americans killed roughly 10 suspected al-Qaida in Iraq members — numbers that rivaled totals for the previous six months combined.

This is not a perfect wedding of intentions. But it is driving al-Qaeda into smaller and smaller operational areas, and it is killing off their manpower. So what next for a-Qaeda if this trend continues? I posted on the strange news about al-Qaeda actually pulling forces out of Iraq:

The Iraq war, which for years has drawn militants from around the world, is beginning to export fighters — and the tactics they have honed in the insurgency — to neighboring countries and beyond, according to U.S., European and Middle Eastern government officials and militant leaders in Lebanon, Jordan and London.

Some of the fighters appear to be leaving as part of the waves of Iraqi refugees crossing borders that government officials acknowledge they struggle to control. But others are dispatched from Iraq for specific missions.

In the Jordanian airport plot, officials think the bomb maker flew from Baghdad to prepare the explosives for Darsi.

To fly a bomber with key expertise out of Iraq to Jordan tells me they are hurting for bombers. Movement of this kind can expose their top people. So are the exporting the war, or are they retreating? Is it coincidence that as Anbar fell quiet these forces moved out? I don’t know, but al-Qaeda is not a mjor military force. We know they do not have 150,000 trained and equipped fighters in Iraq. More like 10,000 – tops. Iraq is a large country, hard to control. al-Qaeda needs local strongmen to enforce their brutality. When these locals turn on al-Qaeda they are left completely exposed. If America is being challenged, then too is al-Qaeda – even more so.

I think al-Qaeda is about to give up on Iraq. It was too big, too much for the movement to take on. I think they had hopes in Lebanon of causing trouble. They would have their Iranian and Syrian backers and their terrorist army in Hezbollah. But even that turned out to be too tough for them – at the moment. They tried to hide out in Palestinian refugee camps and ended up encircled and decimated by Lebanese forces. There are other targets for them, and they seem to be looking at where and how they can revive some momentum. I note this item about 32 people indicted in Madrid Spain for recruiting al-Qaeda fighters:

Spain has indicted 32 people on charges of belonging to or collaborating with a militant group working to recruit fighters for al-Qaeda in Iraq.

Ansar al-Islam members have been trying to muster volunteers among Spain’s Moroccan and Algerian communities since 2004, said Judge Baltasar Garzon.

Why recruit from Spain? an immense target – India:

A group claiming to represent the al-Qaida terror network declared a holy war on India over its partial control of the divided Himalayan region of Kashmir, Indian officials said Saturday.

A statement and video was sent Friday to the Current News Service, in Srinagar, the main city of India’s Jammu-Kashmir state, in which a masked man standing next to an automatic weapon read the declaration.

“We declare righteous holy war against India on behalf of God the great in which Jammu and Kashmir will be the launch pad for holy war in India,” said the statement signed by Abu Abdul Rehman al-Ansari, purportedly the chief of al-Qaida Fil Hind or al-Qaida in India.

Only fools ignore these warnings now. We made that mistake in the 1990’s and paid for it with 9-11. What al-Qaeda is thinking might not be clear, or make sense. But this still small, ragtag group of bloodthirsty savages may be trying to distract us by opening more fronts, cower us by showing some stretch to their reach, or just frustrated and going all out for the glory of Jihad. I do not think they are ‘winning’ Iraq right now. I think they are at a tipping point to lose a lot of ground – quickly. And so what will they do next?

19 responses so far

19 Responses to “What Next For al-Qaeda After Iraq?”

  1. stevevvs says:

    I saw someone post on this yesterday that Al Quada was not in Iraq prior to Our invasion. I beg to differ. There have been numeroius people reporting on the Connection such as Stephen Hayes, Ray Robison,Andrew C. McCarthy, just to name a few. If you just read some of the Pre War Doc’s that have been translated, prior to Bush shutting it down because the NY Times objected to them, it is clear. In fact, you can still read the ones that were translated at The Free Republic. Just look for Pre War Doc’s and click on it.

    Al quada may just be regrouping, it’s too early to know either way. It has been a great sign that the Iraq People are tired of their Country being Invaded by Illegal Aliens! He He! Seriously, who would want car bombs, etc. going off non stop for years on end.

    Michael Yon has a great new piece out. He has been with the British Forces of late.


    Look for Death or Glory Part II of IV.

    As always, lots of pictures.

    We Must prevail in the War in General.
    With Sharia Law written into the Afgan and Iraq Constitution, I don’t think either country will look anything like what we in the West would want or hope for, if a day ever comes when both countries are secure enough for us to leave. But we must fulfill our promises to them. To help secure them until they can secure themselves. To pull out before that would be a disaster. What I’m not sure of is if we can ever completely leave both countries, or is ever leaving those countries would be wise, given the region. Perhaps a permanent base in both countries is the best idea, much like South Korea and Japan. That region is to Volital to not have a presence their in the years to come. At least that is my view. I wont get into how a presence there in a Muslim Country is in direct conflict with Sharia Law, as then this never ending can of worms gets even harder to figure out. But we must fulfill our immediate promises, then see if there really is a way to leave at some point. Or if it is wise to do so.

    Enjoy the day folks!

  2. stevevvs says:

    I guess my other input was lost in syber space or something. Hopefully, it can be found and posted. I wonder if Dial Up is a problem here?

    Time to get out of here. Enjoy your day folks, take care.

  3. momdear1 says:

    My morning paper says they have declared war on India. The Muslims have been taking India piece by piece since the British left. They took Afghanistan, then Pakistan, then East Pakistan (now called Bangladesh) (about 1960). Now they are demanding, and will probably get in the near future, Kashmir. They are suceeding by killing non Muslims, burning all churches and temples and other non Muslem religous schools and chruches, and terrifying survivors into fleeing to other countries. Will the world wake up when they destroy the Taj Mahal? I think not. India is going the way of Yugoslavia with each state becoming an independant country with a vote equal to ours at the UN.

  4. Mike M. says:

    If I had to bet, I would give odds on an effort to take Pakistan. It’s already radicalized….and has a small nuclear arsenal, which Al Quaeda would love to get their hands on.

    Unfortunately, neither the United States nor India can permit this. Any sort of overthrow of the Pakistani government would lead to a major war.

  5. Soothsayer says:

    Perhaps we might also comment on the alignment of US troops with Sunni insurgents who were trying to kill US troops just days ago.

    This act aligns Americans with fighters whose long-term agenda is in conflict with America and its Shiite-led puppet government. Further, it explicitly contradicts repeated declarations by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki that no groups besides the Iraqi and American security forces are allowed to bear arms.

    This may provoke further violence against US troops by Shia militiamen, as it appears we are taking sides in a civil war, and some analyists believe cooperating with a Sunni militia is begging to be double-crossed.

  6. DaleinAtlanta says:

    Soothsayer: predictably, and pathetically: an Anti-American/Pro-Jihadi, Lunar Chiroptera, with no knowledge of actual events, history, Islam, the ME, Arabic, the Jihadis, etc. Probably Anti-Semitic as well, just like the left-side of his sockpuppet mammalian mole-rat-like hive brain “THECENTERCANNTHOLD”!

    Worshippers of Anti-Semite Shi’ite lackey Juan Cole, and far-right-wing fringe John Bircher-Gary Hart symbiote, William Lind!

    Wow, what a freaking combination man; congrats, I am sure ready to listen to everything you guys have to say, and Believe it too!


    Ignorant, sad, pathetic, clueless….


    “That sting in any rebuke, is the Truth” Benjamin Franklin

    “Tolerance, when applied to Evil, becomes a Crime” Thomas Mann

    “Ignorance is no excuse for Stupidity” Anon

    “Zealot: a person, who having forgotten his purpose, redoubles his efforts”: Anon

    “Leftist Demagogue: his first mission is to lower himself to the level of his audience, that way they congratulate themselves for being as smart as him, and he congratulates himself for having fooled them”! Anon

  7. thecentercannothold says:


    Sure, AJ, “Al Qaida is back on its heels.”

  8. thecentercannothold says:

    Dale In Atlanta and Stevevs

    Both arrogant Imperialists whose foreign policy attitudes
    caused 9/11 and whose empire is deservedly on the defensive everywhere in the world. Steve believes the US has a right
    to stay in countries even when that presence is opposed by
    the overwhelming majority of its citizens,as he confesses above.

    Imperial hubris.

    Dale in Atlanta believes he is comforabtly lodged in the respectable
    “middle” of the empire-builders and hence can attack from the quagmired middle the “extremists” of both right and left. Enjoying the view from the quagmire, Daley-boy?

  9. lurker9876 says:

    The surge is not complete. We have 1/3 of Baghdad under full control and working to gain control of the rest of Baghdad. Those suicide bombings will be fewer and far between.

    This is excellent news. I’m willing to bet that we will see far more positive things going on in Iraq. I am hoping that the local Iraqi’s will still have the desire to seek a more democratic government than Shari’ah but it’s up to them. Our US soldiers are setting themselves as examples to the local Iraqi’s. Hopefully, we’ll have a sustaining relationship with Iraq similar to what we have with South Korea.

  10. DaleinAtlanta says:

    “Dale In Atlanta and Stevevs

    Both arrogant Imperialists whose foreign policy attitudes
    caused 9/11 and whose empire is deservedly on the defensive everywhere in the world. ”

    And there it is, with every additional post, “Center” continually exposes himself as the Far Leftist Lunar Chiroptera Nutbag, Anti-American/Pro-Jihadi/Anti-Semite that he is!


    Check that out, he can’t help himself, he just admited in that sentence, according to him, that WE Deserved 9/11, and brought in on ourselves, and that we’re under attack around the world, and he likes it!

    Juan Cole (nutbag and Anti-Semite)
    we brought 9/11 on ourselves and deserve it
    we’re under attack around the world and deserve it…


    It’s so easy to flush out a dedicated, dyed in the wool, Anti-American/Pro-Jihadi Leftist like “Center”.

    When they first come onto the board, they post and pretend that they’re “centrist” and they just want to debate the “issues”, and can’t we just all get along?

    But hit them with a couple of FACTS, and they wilt under pressure, because they want to Surrender to the Jihadis so bad, because they suffer from Reflexive Surrender Syndrome, that they immediately launch into the BDS-afflicted, Brain-Addled, we-caused-9/11 and are the “Evil Empire” and have caused all the world’s problems meme!

    TOOOOO Hilarious!

    God, and they want to run the country, so they can apologize to the world, surrender to the Jihadis, destroy American, and apologize while their getting their throats slit!

    What a bunch of freaking no-backbone weasels! They clearly, evolutionary-wise, belong to the Invertebrate phylum!

    “Center”, I respectuflly suggest you, and your sockpuppet “Sooth”, Google the following terms, and memorize them, because you suffer from a host of psychological illnesses, that require immediate attention, and medication:

    Mass Psychosis
    Cognitive Dissonance
    Psychological Displacement
    Stockholm Syndrome
    Category Error..

    I know you don’t know what any of those mean, even though you suffer from them all, but I’ll give you a day or two to GOOGLE them, then you can come back and post again, and I’ll CRUSH you some more!

  11. Soothsayer says:

    Dale goes off meds. Part II. The Sequel.

    Its the leftists and the surrenderists and we should be AFRAID of the swarthy demons from the desert and the Islamofascists and the Pakistani nuclear arsenal!!

    I’ve written the reports . . . thousands of them I tell you!!

    But you can’t see them – TS code word!

    War with India!!!

    We must ditch the constitution so Dale in Atlanta can be protected from Evil!!!!!

    Tap my phone, God!! Tap my phone!

    Its the leftists I tell you! and the undocumented aliens! The Fence! The Fence!

  12. DaleinAtlanta says:

    Tap my phone, God!! Tap my phone!

    Its the leftists I tell you! and the undocumented aliens! The Fence! The Fence!

    Left by Soothsayer on June 9th, 2007

    When you have no answers!

    When you have no knowledge, except having read one Leftist, Anti-American, Pro-Jihadi book!

    When you don’t have a clue as to what is going on!

    When the best days of your life were in the sixties , like all the other good little Communists, smoking hash with your other Anti-American/Pro-VC, Che T-shirt wearing hippie friends, and protesting the Vietnam War like your idols Jane Fonda and John “I swear I was in Cambodia on New Year’s Eve, honestly” Kerry!

    When you’ve absolutely been shut down, by someone smarter, better educated, more intelligent, better connected, and who knows what’s going on.

    When you’ve been absolutely devastated by the FACTS!

    That’s what you post above!

    Bzzzzzzzzzzzzztt! Whinnnnnnnnnne! Bzzzzzzzzzzzzztt! Whinnnnnnnnnnnnnne!

    What’s that noise?



    Yuck, what’s that blackbrownred stain on my palms?

    Did I just CRUSSSSHHHH! a Leftist Gnat, buzzing in my ear?


    Sure did…..

  13. Soothsayer says:

    Dale – your paranoid hebephrenic rantings become harder and harder to parody as the distance between you and the reality based community widens with each gibbering nonsensical post.

    Go back to your safe world of imaginary TS code word documents and playing the Great Game on a massive world-wide scale . . . cause clearly living in the bright light of the adult world leaves you whining for a safe, dark quiet place.

  14. DaleinAtlanta says:

    Bzzzzzzzzzzzzztt! Whinnnnnnnnnne! Bzzzzzzzzzzzzztt! Whinnnnnnnnnnnnnne!

    What’s that noise?



    Yuck, what’s that blackbrownred stain on my palms?

    Did I just CRUSSSSHHHH! a Leftist Gnat, buzzing in my ear?


    Sure did…..

  15. thecentercannothold says:


    You are a contemptible moron. Michael Scheuer is and has been a conservative realist-not a leftist- who is not beholden as you are to the fifth column of Zionist neocons posing as conservatives who fool dupes like you to shed their children’s blood for Ashkenazi racist endeavours.

    Yor feel comfortable in the “middle” of the neocon quagmire
    beleiving in traitors and fools who assured you the war would be over in weeks in 2003, with Iraq’s new pro-American government
    stabilized and war expenses paid off by oil proceeds by 2004!

    Yes, Feith, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, and Cheney said all of it.

    And the neocon blogs who trusted them and still defend them?
    You find their moronic adherence to Bush policy more
    agreeable than the Juan Coles of the Left and Buchanan’s
    amconmag.com.—-and Linds of the right who have been
    proven correct long since in their pre-war predictions of

    Who’s the idiot? Not soothsayer, but a superannuated
    yahoo on the road to absolute defeat in the Mideast.

  16. thecentercannothold says:


    So we have a third of Baghdad under control after four years!
    Gosh that must mean there will be eight more years and
    about 7,000 more American lives lost and another 10.000
    maimed for life before we get it under full control!

    Of course most of the other areas of Iraq will still be, or
    will have reverted to, essential if not complete lawlessness, because
    the US does not have enough troops to do Iraq in toto.

    And forget about a pro-American government. There aren’t enough
    pro-American Iraqis of ability in the country to form a government-and if there were ,they would be hunted down by the majority
    after we left.

  17. DaleinAtlanta says:

    “….you are to the fifth column of Zionist neocons posing as conservatives who fool dupes like you to shed their children’s blood for Ashkenazi racist endeavours!”

    Ahhhhh, doesn’t get any more clear than that!


    Bzzzzzzzzzzzzztt! Whinnnnnnnnnne! Bzzzzzzzzzzzzztt! Whinnnnnnnnnnnnnne!

    What’s that noise?



    Yuck, what’s that blackbrownred stain on my palms?

    Did I just CRUSSSSHHHH! a Leftist Gnat, buzzing in my ear?


    Sure did…..

  18. DaleinAtlanta says:

    3. The below quotes are from “THECENTERCANNOTHOLD” ; the greatest “hits” from this board in the past couple of days, the Delusional rantings of a Lunar Chiroptera fringe nutbag, who is Racist against not only Jews but Hispanics; who is also Proudly Anti-American and Pro-Jihadi. A worshipper of fellow fringe nutbags from both the left and the right; his “heroes” include: Ron Paul, William Lind, Juan Cole and Pat Buchanan:

    “You’re going to lose both the Southwest and the Mideast.”

    “And yes I said “Surrender to Mexico Strata” because long before ragtag bans of Moslems will make his kids bow to Mecca, the Mexican revanchists will recapture the Southwest for “La Raza.”

    “I would remain silent, avoiding all protest, at the transmogrification of the Southwest,…”

    “Aj of course is an Islamophobiac, which is several degrees worse than a hypochondriac inasmuch as it is Hispanics at 15% and with a nation bordering us, not Moslems at 3% with nations a half a globe away who constitute a challenge.”

    “..as you are to the fifth column of Zionist neocons posing as conservatives who fool dupes like you to shed their children’s blood for Ashkenazi racist endeavours.”

    “…of the neocon quagmire beleiving in traitors and fools who…”

    “….is any Moslem anywhere in the world who wants Israel to give back the West Bank and Samaria to Palestinians and who resents American subsidization of Israel and it is any Moslem in the world who wants American bases and meddling, including CIA meddling in
    Moslem countries elections and government,expurgated from Islamic nations…..”

    You can’t make this stuff up!

    The fact that there are such brain-damaged individuals as he and “Soothsayer”, who actually “pass” as American “citizens”, is almost inconceiveable!