Jun 04 2007
58+% Are Not Against Immigration Bill
Well, here is a bizarre poll from USA Today/Gallup:
As the Senate prepares to vote on a landmark immigration bill, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds that Americans who have an opinion about it are overwhelmingly opposed to the deal.
By nearly 3-1, those who have a view say they’re against the compromise supported by Senate Democratic leaders and President Bush. However, 58% of those surveyed say they don’t know enough about the legislation to favor or oppose it.
USA Today tries really hard to spin this as meaning the immigration bill is in trouble, but that is more grasping for hope than reality it seems. Let’s have some fun with basic math. Of the 42% who did not fall into the “who knows any more” 58%, the story says they run 3-1 against the bill. OK, that means roughly 31% are against the Bill (75% of 42). That means 58+10 or 68% are for the bill or not sure. So 31-68 if you are looking for people who clearly oppose the Bill being passed. Now I understand why the bill’s proponents are feeling confident of passage. The opposition has not grown, just the ‘no opinion’. Will they trend into the opposition camp or fall back into the support camp where they existed for the last few years? We shall see.
Did you major in fuzzy math, AJ.
Let’s take the numbers: the survey involved 1007 people. If 42% of those people had an opinion and was 3-1 against the bill, it would be that of the 423 who had an opinion on the bill, only 106 were FOR it where as three times as many, or 318 were against it. It also meant that of the 1007 surveyed, 584 had no opinion.
So no, it was not roughly 31% of the 42% were against it; it means that 75% (3 plus 1) of the 42% were against it.
If you take the 58% (584) no opinion and add the 42% (423) who had an opinion, you come up with 1007. If you add those for the bill (106) along with those that had no opinion (584) you come up with 690 or 68.5%. That leaves 31.5 % who are against the bill who even had an opinion.
So a survey where the responders say by 58% they have no opinion still holds 31.5% against the bill, and you want to spin that as a victory?
Give me a friggin break.
LOL! R05 – you just did the same math I did!
The only difference is you think 68% not being in the ‘oppose’ category is good news. I never said it was a victory – I believe I said it was a bizarre poll. Nice try though. 31% against, 10% for 58% on the fence. Not looking good for the opponents. And no, I don’t think 58% are of no opion. If asked the right question (guest worker program or nothing) it would go back to 2-1 for something over nothing (like every other poll out there).
AJ, how you can spin this poll without knowing the questions is beyond me.
When you take into consideration that almost 60% were of no opinion and yet over 30% were against it, it would stand to reason that if they had enough information to give an opinion it would follow the same as the 42% which was 3 to 1 (equally 4 views) against the bill.
Be prepared to be disappointed and have to spin again. Your are beginning to look very Dervish.
Let’s see, of 100% that have heard of the fairy godmother, 68% are not sure is she’s real, 28% think she is real, 4%have no opinion. However, of the 68% that are not sure if she’s real 30% of those think she may be real, 32% think she may not be real and the other 28% don’t think they understand what they are being asked. Now if you take the 28% that think she’s real and add that to the 30% that think she may be real and assume that the same ratio of the 28% that don’t understand what they were being asked, so that means that 28% of that 28% really do believe she’s real and 30% of the 28% think she’s probably real and add 28 % of the 4% that have no opinion and add all that up you get 28% +28%(30%) and 28%(28%) and 28% (4%)= 112%(100%0) equal 112% believe there is a fairy godmother and -88% do not believe in a fairy godmother. I think that pretty well proves there really is a fairy godmother and that math was every bit as good as that far-fetched pulled out his (thin air) calculation he made.
I heard about this Ph.D candidate one time that was working on his doctoral thesis. The thesis was to prove that you can prove any thesis you reallly want to prove.. His conclusion, he proved you can.
You can also make numbers say whatever you wish them to. Those numbers above will really have to be slewed to prove a majority are not against the bill, and there will have to be a lot of sleight of hand to accomplish that proof. Hey, but it can be done if someone is determined enough.
This comment is about math and doctoral thesis’s not about illegal aliens. just to keep the record straight.
Man, can’t a guy go away for 30 hours without you getting in trouble with a Hard Right, foaming at the mouth, hypocondriac, blogger, attorney out of Michigan?
Geez!
Lot’s a polls, Fred Barnes has been that way forever, I guess that about covers it.
I actually thought AJ would have covered a couple other stories out there today. Glad he missed them, guess I’ll save the amo till he discovers them.
Try not to get those Wacky Right Wingers too upset, you never know how stable they are. Debbie, by now, knows where you live!She’s got connections!
Take Care, I see there are no ground breaking stuff today. Had to have a little fun!
If the hardliners kill the bill, they will kill a lot of the border enforcement people want. I don’t think that will make people happy.They just want to get some better understanding of what they are dealing with. They want something better, not something dead.
Then of course there is the block of knee jerkers who made up their minds before the bill came out how they were going to feel about it. Might as well forget about them.
Terrye said –
Then of course there is the block of knee jerkers who made up their minds before the bill came out how they were going to feel about it. Might as well forget about them.
Knee jerkers??? The non-stop name calling from the proponents rolls on. Some things never change.
What do you call a group of people who have never read the bill who have made up their minds about it?
What do you call a person who has never read a book and yet renders an opinion on it?
What do you call a person who has never read a particular novel, and then argues over the contents of said novel with someone who has read the novel?
AJ, about the article. Wow. All I can say is, “Wow”.
“Then of course there is the block of knee jerkers who made up their minds before the bill came out how they were going to feel about it. Might as well forget about them. ”
Terrye that is about right.
At some point there are people who will not move off their position or regularization of status for illegals and that is just how it is. THe fall back position is the Govt will enver enforce it. As I mention in another post they need to go down to the Federal COurthouse. THere are a lot of folks in the drug war that learned differently once the Govt had the tools to enforce. OF course we hear from that side that the Govt is being a tyrant through sentencing guidelines that give no discretion etc etc. THe Govt enforces the laws everyday and people feel the heat. I will not even get into the IRS.
I would feel better if people would try to make suggestions to make the provisions better. But if “amnesty” is mentioned it is a deal breaker.
Again, this position is becoming weaker by the year.
Math. I like math.
Chertoff admitted that “very few” NEW miles (miles that have been built since President Bush signed the fence bill 7 months ago) have been built. Now, the word “few” has always meant “three” to me. But let’s be kind and assume that “few miles” equals 10 miles. Which is, I believe, closer to the truth anyway.
So in 7 months, they have managed to secure 10 miles of border. At that rate, how long will it take to secure just 500 miles of border?
500/10 = 50
They are 1/50th of the way there. Yea!! Go Speed Racer!
Only 49/50ths to go!
49 x 7 months = 343 months
343 months divided by 12 months in a year = 28.58 years
Only 28.58 years to go, and we will be at the 500 mile mark. Assuming that everything doesn’t get bogged down in red tape or held up in court with animal rights activists concerned over the migrating habits of some animal that no one has ever heard of.
I just don’t understand why some people doubt the sincerity of our Government when it comes to border security. Geesh!
Whatever anyone does, do NOT read the very first sentence of this immigration draft. Do NOT read it.
Apache, just for the record, I’m relatively sure that no new border fence has been started AS A RESULT OF the fence bill last year. Some that was started back in ’96 or ’98 is still under construction(16 miles near San Diego and less than 45 miles in Az is under constr. but all was started from previous funds. None from new bill. Google ‘border fence under construction’ there are several links but I can’t find any at all that say new fence from last bill is being built. If there is, then I just can’t find it on google.
apache_ip
I think I have shown that the people on the border are raising Holy hell that the Govt is rushing the fence through without their input a lot of angry landowners and business owners. We also don’t own the land
Republicans and conservatives generally are aware that these local issues exists. So you analysis needs to be more even handed and inquistive of what the actual situation is on the ground. LEt me try ot help
From this article
“Chief David Aguilar’s address to the Texas Border Coalition – which was hastily arranged late Thursday after numerous cancellations by Homeland Security officials – was sprinkled with conciliatory “ifs” and “mays” about the location of the fence. But Aguilar made clear that the federal government would have the final say. ….
Local officials have been fuming over what they consider the secrecy concerning a fence they say will cut farmers off from water, harm wildlife, ruin recreational areas and send a hostile message to Mexico, Texas’ biggest trading partner….. Within months of getting Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff’s assurances that decisions on the fence’s location would not be made without their input, coalition members intercepted a confidential U.S. Customs and Border Protection memo that included a map of the fence.”
http://www.theeagle.com/stories/060207/texas_20070602048.php
Read the whole thing . IT is one of many. Also these are all not hippie Greenpeace people eithr
Y the way many conservatives promoted the minutemen to build a fence. Turns out that most of that money didn’t go to a fence. I am waiting for the numerous blogs politicians, and on air personalities to apologize to their “public” for endorsing a scam . Yet it is the Govt that is the one lying
FE,
You may be right. I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if you were.
I was taking Chertoff at his word. I don’t have any proof that he is not telling the truth, so my policy is to extend him (or anyone) the benefit of the doubt.
And I thought I would round-up when interpreting “few”, just to be kind.
But, like I said, I would not be surprised to find out that you are 100% correct.
When politicians say they will secure our borders, I don’t think most Americans are interpreting that to mean, IN 30 YEARS! Heck, most people don’t believe them anyway. So some people might be pleasantly surprised if they did secure our borders 30 years from now.
Now you know why they have that big frickin exception clause in the very first sentence. They would hate to wait 30 years to make everyone legal.
Big LSU,
Are you trying to say that 30 years is TOO fast and the process should be slowed down?
http://www.brownsvilleherald.com/news/border_77031___article.html/fence_officials.html
More here on the border and landowners. At some point those that make wild accusations against the Federal Govt and the Administration about not doing anything on the border have to incorporate this in their thinking and analysis
“Are you trying to say that 30 years is TOO fast and the process should be slowed down? ”
Read the links. The govt is already being accused of not operating by the law by going too fast.
By the way you as of your own assertion have no clue what has been built etc. So forgive me if I don’t indulge your hypo of a few being 3 miles.
Bush could not tap his shoes and build it just like that. If we are going to build a fence lets understand what is going on down there.
Maybe you would like to attend this meetings in South Texas and give your analysis on this subject and encourage the FEDS to ignore the law. Also you can tell the local folks in the great conservative fashion that we don’t care about your concerns. That will go over great
. I am sure the Feds would love that to get the hostile landowners and town folks off their backs a second that are accusing them of not consulting them. I will bring the popcorn lol.
At some point, proponents of this bill are going to have to incorporate into their thinking that 300 million Americans might not be too happy if it takes 30 (or more) years to secure our borders. Regardless of the reason(s).
Just a thought.
And if they do fail to secure our borders, and we are forced to suck down YET ANOTHER amnesty plan in 20 years, what will you say then? What will the people do? If I were McCain, I wouldn’t worry about illegals rioting in the streets. I would worry about what everyone else might do.
Well Lets work to secure these borders. The tools are in the bill. I think these thousands of Border Agents we are hiring is a good start.
I don’t think they are going to be watching Dr Phil during the day. I am all for Virtual Fence Technology in many places , Yet I see in towns on the border epople think they are being spied on so I suspect that is another problem that we will have to deal with.
The quicker this workplace verfication system gets online the better. I think that will do more than any fencing could do
Good point, LSU. (:slaps forehead in disbelief that I didn’t think of it earlier:) If you’re going to build a 1500-mile wall in America, you have to deal with an awful lot of property owners, and that’s going to slow things down.
Unless, of course, you go the Kelo route and just take people’s property if it happens to run right along the nation’s border.
Gee, maybe “just secure the borders, then we’ll talk” isn’t quite as simple a task as some people seem to believe. Tradeoffs can be a bitch.
Aitch748
Bush even alluded to this problem when was talking to that Texas reporter in that huge interview he did. He off the side mentioned problems with landowners.
THis fence at times irks me because at times I think we are just building a conservative version of some big time Govt feel good project. I am not against fencing in high trafficed areas but it seems that we should be using virtual technology a lot more. However one cannot see that and thus people don’t like it. BUt hey its only billions of the Govt money so who cares.
For all this talk of Fencing I have heard talk of double fenecing Single fencing etc etc. But little precious talk if this makes sense in the whole. But the Govt did the bill and now its got money to spend to do it.
I would rather trade some fencing for more workforce and workplace enforcement agents. I think that is where the real key is to enforcement