Mar 14 2007

Follow Up To My Rudy Post

LOL! Seems those on the “hard right” are taking note of my comments that Rudy will remain ahead of all ‘pure conservatives for 2008 Presidential race (or someone like him). I admit the term “far right” is probably not an accurate term, but the fact is too many Reps are too inflexible to form a governing majority and I can only try and explain why their views are falling on deaf ears. They have dug in after their blistering loss in 2006, driven to repeat the mistake.

To all those who thnk Bush compromises too much I have one subject which he, and he alone, is holding strong on – embryonic stem cells. The cons in congress are the ones buckling on this and without Buh we would be harvesting humans for medical cures as we speak. So please, stop trying to sell the canard Bush is not conservative. Too many people equate Bush with the Hagel and McCain types, which is a simple way to avoid the facts.. Oh well, over the top hype is all some folks have to offer, and as I said in my previous posts, I am done with that shtick. I am a Reagan-Bush (W) Conservative. I am not a Republican and have no interest in becoming one. And without people like me to fight alongside the Reps, they have nothing.

Bush did more for the conservative cause than Reagan – get used to that fact. He got more Bills passed and his one compromise was tying federal dollars to proof the public education system was spending those dollars wisely. Wow, how terrible! Its like people who rant against the Gang of 14, the folks who turned the tied in our judicial make up – but just didn’t do it with the “in-your-face” approach of a filibuster breaker – they are mad over tactics chosen and ignore the result. Same thing with border issues when people put punishment over common sense. They are not for security, otherwise they could do the simple math and realize we have 2 million people in jail in this country and we do not have the resources or money to round up 12-20 million illegal workers. And why would we not spend any additional resources on fighting terrorists and winning Iraq? Whatever, the reality is – as I show below the fold – the immigration position of the hard right is a massive diversion.

Let me explain with simple, brutal math and using the needle in the haystack problem. The terrorists we need to protect against are not numerous. On 9-11 we were hit by 20 terrorists. Lets assume ten times that number and look at the problem of stopping 200 terrorists coming here to kill us. Now, as with 9-11, they can travel here pretending to be on vacation. The only possible use for the border access might be to move material, but you can do that as well legally and much more easily over the Canadian border. But forget all those real-life issues, let’s get to the math. We have 2 million people in our jails (less than 1% of our population). We have another 7 million or so in the criminal justice system (parole, etc) which brings our active serious crime population to around 9 million, and we are stretched thin making sure our streets are safe and our eyes are watching out for a new terrorist attack. If we have to double this burden by going after (in any manner) the illegal workers we will lose sight of our prime objective, terrorists. This is not theory – it is fact. We don’t have the resources to process all the illegal aliens. And to double our current capacity would take a decade or more. This is not TV folks, you don’t come back from a commercial break to magically find all these trained and motivated people ready to work for government pay.

Roughly 3-5% of our population (and any population in the Western countries) has a criminal history – which is darn good given human nature. So let’s assume the illegal population his 70% hard working, well intentioned people who don’t have their permit papers and the rest are the problem criminals we need to sift through to find terrorists. We know the crime rate for immigrants is higher than our national rate, which is why it appears they are rampant criminals (all of them, according to some). But 30% is way too high and I picked it to make a point.

If we need to focus on the problem population we first need to sift out those who are not a threat and are doing what many immigrants have done for centuries here, adding to our nation’s fabric in a positive way. The Guest worker program does this by allowing those confident they are good willed to step forward, pay their dues and continue to work here.

Assuming 10 million illegal workers of which 30% are criminals we need to deport then our problem goes from 10 million pieces of hay to 300 thousand pieces of hay. Those 200 hundred terrorists we need to find go from 2 in 100,000, which is the odds of finding them roughly, to 2 in 3,000. If I actually doubled the crime rate (as I am sure I did) and instead of being 6 times are national average likely to commit a serious crime immigrants are instead only 3 times as likely (which seems more likely), then those terrorist are now only 2 in 1500. 2 in 1500 hundred (or 1 in 750) is a reasonable problem to tackle.

The thing about math is you cannot argue it away and pretend it doesn’t exist. I want the criminal element of the immigrants out of here and we could pay their native countries the going rate to incarcerate them in country – saving us money and prison space we do not have. But if we are all about finding terrorists, the odds of 2 out 1500 are much better than the odds of 2 out of 10,000,000. So please, don’t try and convince me we will be protecting our country by trying to punish the illegal workers – all of them – no matter the nature of their crime.

I have done the math. And all I see are people pushing for something that would drain all of our resources that need to be watching for al Qaeda (and we will still need to double these resources from current levels and divert them onto this folly) to picking up maids and construction workers and their families. The whole idea is suicidally naive. In fact, it sounds just like a redployment of our security forces – which it is. It is just as crazy as Mad Murtha sending our troops to Okinawa. Instead, now people want to send our security forces to hunt down illegal workers. And people wonder why the hard right and far left are losing support??? Get real.

38 responses so far

38 Responses to “Follow Up To My Rudy Post”

  1. stevevvs says:


    My dad, a WWII veteran, did not have the drug coverage. Nuff said. Just like stealing candy from a baby, eh?

    No, not nuff said. Was he employed somewhere? Self Employed? Not employed?
    Ultimately, we all should be resonsible for ourselves in a Constitutional Republic. If I desire to help others, great, but to be forced to in our system of Gvernment is wrong. Why am I responsible for your fathers lifetime decisions? Or my Fathers? They all made Choices along the way, as I have. I don’t think anyone else is to blame for my choices in 21 years when I’m 65, nor should anyone else be responible for correcting what I failed to do. Sounds harsh, but it is what it is.

    BTW Stevevvs,

    I cannot help but point out that my taxes have not gone up one iota due to the new plan and the Federal budget deficit is shrinking every month since it was enacted. Next time you scream fire, maybe you should make sure there is one first. Results, not rhetoric.

    So, your saying a couple years from now we all wont be paying more in taxes for all these “Entitlements” S.S., Medicare, Medicade, Pills, etc. Dream on buddy. They are ALL UNSUSTAINABLE over time.

  2. AJStrata says:

    Stevevvs – what I am saying is we can offer up affordable health care insurance to those who can pay and a dignified last few years for those who gave to this country. If you can’t spare the money maybe it is you who are having the self support issues.

    As I said – if this is your view count me out. Want nothing to do with it.

  3. stevevvs says:

    Awesome post. What we have lacked over the years is one thing: LEADERSHIP!
    We caved on drilling in ANWAR
    we caved on Social Security reform
    we caved on Tax Reform
    we caved on SHRINKING Gov’t.
    we caved on ending the Dept. of Education
    we caved on privatizing PBS, NPR
    we caved on Amtrack

    I look at the damage that the Clinton Presidency did to the Dem’s, and I see the same damage done to the Rep’s by Bush, sadly. And it all comes back to LEADERSHIP and party Discipline. There just has been none, and that has hurt so many great proposales over the years.
    I think they just became tired.

  4. stevevvs says:

    If you can’t spare the money maybe it is you who are having the self support issues.
    If I can’t spare the money for OTHERS, that has nothing to do with supporting ME, now does it?

    If I wasn’t FORCED to support people I’ve never met, I could better support ME, don’t you think?

    I give all my cars, furnitue, and clothing to charity when I’m done with them. I’m not forced too, I want to. There is a difference between a desire to help others, and government forcing you to do so.
    I’ve taken out 3 personal loans to help my broke father over the last 25 years. He always paid me back in full, but I chose to help him. In a Republic, it is suppose to be about choice not coersion.


  5. The Macker says:

    You are on target!

    Bush stands tall on “human life” issues.

    His prescription drug plan made drugs accessible to all seniors, in a market based arrangement. The weekend WSJ showed how competitive the prices are now. No more need to smuggle prescriptions from Canada.

    The long littanies of immigration woes, cited by Stevevs, demonstrate the need for the reforms you propose.

    We quibble about what a “conservative” is, or complain about the lousy White House PR,
    but at least we conservatives argue the issues, point by point on this site.

  6. AJStrata says:


    If you had thought a second you would have realized the fact is most people on the plan are paying into it (as my Dad does) because first and foremost it is an insurance plan, not a hand out.

    But thanks again for displaying exactly what is wrong with the reps these days. And heaven help you if you ever need to rely on a stranger, a good Samaratin if you will, to help you out someday.

    BTW, do you think those laying down their lives in Iraq know everyone here they are dying for???? Aren’t they being forced to sacrifice for others???

    How long do you plan to keep taking this kind of debate beating?

  7. AJStrata says:


    Most if not all the damage to Bush came from the right stabbing him in the back – that is when his support died. The Dems were always against him and always will be. It was the hard right and their petulant impatience that got Bush, and it started with Harriet Miers.

  8. Carol_Herman says:

    The “unseen” piece.

    The BLACK MARKET! Do you know what the illegal population really funds?

    As to the prison population, it’s high because the mental institutions were closed (by Reagan). And, it’s a great business! It includes all drug interdiction, and the insane laws that law inforcement officers can increase their “take” by TAKING. While our supreme-o’s are well aware of all this traffic. No one, however, has the courage to interfere with the money-flow.

  9. Carol_Herman says:

    Lots of new drugs are not covered by any program. But are out-of-pocket expense.

    For instance? JANUVIA. A new drug type from Merck. For diabetes. It was found that there are cells in the pancreas that interfere with normal insulin distribution. ALPHA AND BETA cells. Insulin doesn’t treat this. As I said it’s NEW. And, the pills are expensive.

    So saying the elderly have no costs is untrue.

    However, if you’re at the low end of the totem pole, you won’t be given the new stuff. Nor will you be given this if you belong to Kaiser. It’s market place economics.

    One reason American drugs are more expensive? The drug companies KNOW they get taxpayer money. And, they charge higher prices. People on a budget? Tend to look for bargains by mail. And, this has been true for years and years.

    Hard to say what would work better, though? Since companies are motivated by making money. Or nobody would be out there doing the research that changes the way we look at diseases. And, to know about how fast they change? The new residents know a lot of new things, that doctors who are practicing on what they learned in the 1970’s. You can choose between a new doctor and an older, experienced, one. But you have to have some insight into what you’re measuring. And, what cutting edge is worth.

  10. Buckaroo says:


    I got a larger percentage of what I wanted as opposed to the percentage of what you asked for and got. I have more people on the border, I have part of a fence, I have people talking about the next step. I’m a lot happier than you. The terrorists that come in trough Mexico will not have papers, they will circumvent the legal entry points. It will be the criminal coyotes, receiving a huge fee, coming through the areas that you chose not to guard that will get the terrorists and their weapons here.

  11. AJStrata says:


    The comprehensive plan covered the border enhancements. And is this what you are all about – who got more? Childish

    LOL! The folks I admire and support are still in power! Nyah,Nyah, Nyah.

    So, I take it your response is “yes”, you would wait until terrorists attacked before budging. You guys are making it way too easy to oppose Reps.

  12. Buckaroo says:


    It was the our ‘progressives’ and the ACLU that got the inmates out of the institutions. President Reagan did not close the institutions.

  13. Buckaroo says:


    Testy, testy, testy. I’m sorry but I expected better of you.

  14. Terrye says:

    Aj I agree with you.

    People can complain about the drug pescription pan, but it has saved money, because the people getting it are on Medicare already…which means if they can not afford their medicine taxpayers assume the costs in the end. I work for a health care agency and in the past I watched people go on Medicaid because they could not afford their meds. And medicaid pays everything. It is better if they pay into a program like this and get a discount. Also I doubt very much that WalMart would have cut their drug prices the way they have if not for this program.

    I also remember Bush trying to bring private accounts into Social Security and the socalled fiscal conservatives were not exactly falling all over themselves to support it. They complain about the size of government and they complain that Bush is not conservative enough..but he is the first president in years who even broached the subject of private accounts for social security. For all the good it did him.

    And in cases like Terri Schiavo, Bush would have been better off politically if he stayed away from that, but he didn’t because he is pro life. So it is not fair to say Bush is not a conservative just because he does not always do what some people want him to. He does have a right to opinions of his own and his stance on issues like immigration were well known when he was voted into office years ago. He never lied to anyone about that. I think this almost overnight hysteria on the subject is bizarre. Sometimes I wonder if some of the people complaining the most really want to fix the problem or just demagogue the issue.

  15. Buckaroo says:


    I would make it as comprehensive as the politics would allow. The Dems and Repubs are both pandering to the Hispanic base. Neither organized party will work together for America, they have their agenda. I’m a Conservative, I believe that there are many Mods, Dems and Repubs that share my conservative thoughts that something needs to be done. I’m just greatful for the little things. Got to go, I’ve enjoyed the dialog.

  16. stevevvs says:

    But thanks again for displaying exactly what is wrong with the reps these days. And heaven help you if you ever need to rely on a stranger, a good Samaratin if you will, to help you out someday.

    That is GOVERNMENT COERSION, not “a good Samaratin ”

    WHERE IS THE CHOICE???????????????????????

    Your lack of knowledge on the Government We Are Suppose to Have shines thru.

    I’d recommend reading books, but I know you haven’t the time!

    Funny, how when it’s socialism, you have time to answer all “The silly little Questions”, but if it’s Aliens, well, times to short!

  17. wiley says:

    Yeah, Bush has stood tall on Iraq & ESCR & taxes, and it’s true that repubs haven’t been as united or supportive as they should have been, but DubiousD is on point — Bush’s biggest problems are partly due to Bush not making the case. Of course the media is biased against him and the dems with their BDS are on the attack non-stop, but a confident and assertive leader overcomes that. Maybe Bush just doesn’t have it in his make-up, but then he better have the people around him that can sell his agenda … obviously, that’s been lacking.

    I think we also have to understand what a grind it is, with everything that’s happened — recession, 9-11, Katrina, Iraq — and after 6 years fatigue is inevitable. Unfortunately, there’s no let up in the dems, so Bush & the repubs need to work better together during this strecth run.

    One last thought — Harriet Meirs was an awful choice, an example of Bush trying too hard to please the left & dems with a women (force-feeding us diversity) who he thought was also a good conservative. Only trouble is that she was woefully unqualified for the job, hence the stiff reaction from the “right”. We just wanted a competent, conservative judge, which we did get with Alito.

  18. DubiousD says:


    Up until a few weeks ago, I never ever heard of the term RINO. Then I caught a Rush Limbaugh broadcast where he used it and I thought he was saying “Rhino”. So, no, I never use the term.

    BTW, I notice once again you haven’t attempted to debate me on a single point I raised. If you find my posts illogical, you are more than welcome to “Fisk” me point by point; I would welcome the constructive criticism. If, however, you have no counterargument to issues I raise, then the courteous thing to do would be to grant my points.