Dec 12 2006
Litvinenko Dosage Was Massive
There is an article out today which helps put the dosage of Polonium 210 into perpsective, and a history lesson which would dictate the Litvinenko incident was not an assassination. It is the only recorded death by Polonium 210, and clearly demontrates Polonium is not a weapon of assassination:
A low-dose exposure was blamed for causing the death of Irene Joliot-Curie, the daughter of Marie Curie, who first isolated polonium.
Irene died in 1956 of leukemia caused by accidental exposure when a sealed capsule of the metal exploded on her laboratory bench. Polonium’s alpha rays damage DNA, although in Irene’s case they took more than 10 years to do their deadly work.
Litvinenko passed away much more quickly. On Nov. 23, the 43-year-old died in a London hospital from the intense radiation polonium emits, having ingested it sometime in late October. Even though the dose of poison was tiny — maybe no more than the weight of a speck of dust — it was deadly.
…
The maximum safe body burden of polonium is only 7 picograms (7 trillionth of a gram). It appears that Litvinenko was given something like a milligram (a thousandth of a gram), which is a billion times the safe level. Polonium-210 is regarded as one of the most dangerous substances known because it ejects alpha particles.
The history shows ten years before the first accidental exposure to what must have been a large amount of Polonium dust took its victim. True, the Curie’s were scientists and they took precautions. But an assassin would have to consider this example a poor result. The assassin theory has mutiple conflicting assumptions. First the assassin is sophisticated so he/she selects this exotic weapon. Then it turns out they know little about the weapon and the trail it leaves:
Whoever the assassin was, he or she had some method of concealing the poison before it was given to Litvinenko. The hidden poison would be undetectable because this isotope emits almost no telltale gamma rays. However, polonium has a tendency to leak from containers. This probably explains why traces have been found in five airliners, particularly those used for flights to Moscow. (Passengers in those aircraft were not at risk.)
Where Litvinenko was poisoned is still not known. But wherever he went after he was poisoned, he left traces of polonium, including his home in the north London suburb of Muswell Hill, a sushi restaurant near Piccadilly Circus where he dined with a friend, a luxury hotel where he met two unidentified Russians, and the home of Russian billionaire exile Boris Berezovsky. His room in the hospital was the most contaminated.
So was this a smart assassin? Apparently not. But why hire a low brow (and low budget) assassin to deliver a poison which costs tens of millions of dollars? That makes no sense either. Polonium 210 is useful as a weapon. Very useful. But that use has nothing to do with poison pills in tea. That is not an effective use of Polonium 210. Its role in a nuclear device or dirty bomb is much more deadly and cost effective. Now, you don’t need to tell a smuggler exactly what they are smuggling when you want to transport contraband. And smugglers might not think or even know about the trail Polonium 210 can leave. If I was in on the smuggling and then took ill, I would spend some serious time negotiating an air tight role as a whistle blower to get as light a sentence as possible in any prosecutions. The radiation poisoning would be punishment enough in many people’s minds.
On a slightly separate topic I would expect people involved in a smuggling ring that went bust like the Litvinenko incident might have to start running for cover. And that is apparently what we see.
Paris. A key witness in Litvinenko case,
Andrey[Evgeny; ajstrata] Limarev, has disappeared from his home in the French Alps, the Echo of Moscow Radio reported citing a statement of News Ru. Limarev is a former Federal Security Service agent and a colleague of Alexander Litvinenko, who was poisoned recently in London. Some time ago, Limarev accused a former agent of the Federal Security Service, of Litvinenko’s death. Limarev told the British press that he would be the next victim. A day later, he went missing.
l which will be twisted by those trying to divert attention from themselves as some sort of act by Putin. Clearly someone is trying to hide something and some form of cleaning up is taking place.
Major Update: I can confidentally predict Lugovoi has signed a plea agreement in this matter:
Russian businessman Andrei Lugovoy, a presumed key witness in the case on the death in London of former FSB officer Alexander Litvinenko, has flatly dismissed media reports alleging that Russian and British investigators repeatedly interrogated him on Tuesday.
“There have not been any investigatory actions today. I have only signed a protocol on not divulging preliminary investigation secrecy, and the signing of a protocol is not, as it is known, an investigatory action,†he told ITAR-TASS.
Berezovsky and Goldfarb and Zakayev must be getting pretty concerned about now. They do seem awefully eager to please all of a sudden. It is not good to pollute the home of someone who has given you shelter.
BTW, here is an interview of Lugovoi in Der Spiegel from a while back which is interesting. I have meetings today but will try to drop in and blog when I can. Update: This is fascinating reading and I hope I can join the debate later today, but one thing that should be noted about Polonium 210 poisoning is it can happen over time. If a person repeatedly visits a location where Polonium 210 is being handled one can build up the toxin to the point it becomes deadly. I only note that because Lugovoi and Kovtun stated Litvinenko was claiming to be poisoned as early as Oct 16th. I would wager this smuggling effort, if it is one, went on for months and involved many more carriers than we are seeing reported now.
The article specifically states that he went to the hospital 5 days later – so it must have been the prior Sat. Nov. 25 or so.
Then a day or two later the British arrived and seemed to interview him almost immediately (with the Russians doing the questioning). At the time I thought they interviewed him so quickly because he was about to die…I was wrong on that. This link shows Lugovoi in the hospital Dec 5: http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/tm_headline=spy-case-witness-in-hospital-&method=full&objectid=18215498&siteid=66633-name_page.html
link to article about unknown man in Hamburg:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2501273,00.html
An unnamed Russian businessman who flew from Moscow to Hamburg on October 28 with Mr Kovtun is also being sought. Police believe this flight was used to transport polonium-210 into Europe.
http://www.fas.org/blog/secrecy/2006/12/injecting_polonium_into_humans.html
jeez they injected it
Vyacheslav Sokolenko also says he was not at the bar with Lukovoi and Kovtun at the Millenium.
Yeah, it was the 1950’s … and they were experimenting on people who were pretty much dead anyway. Terminal cancer patients, and there wasn’t a lot of treatment available back then short of surgery.
I’m still puzzled by one thing (among a zillion) – why did Zakazev blab about the Moslem conversion and the Chechens declare him a martyr almost the minute he died? This is just a strong as message as the assassin theorists claim Putin was sending – this message is we have polonium, Litvinenko got it for us and he died in the process.
I read somewhere today that the British are looking to question Sokolenko (he wasn’t at the earlier meetings either I don’t think) but was he the mystery man who went to Hamburg with Kovton?
lizarde, behcause he was a hero to the Chechen nationalists as was the murdered journo Anna–they stood up for them (not the terrorists, the nationalists).
Clarice you are probably going to turn out to be right in the end but allow me my fantasies for now ok?
” Lizarde1, I am very surprised that the disposal rate of Po is so small. Why didn’t they pick up on this earlier in the hospital? They seemed so sure it was thallium. Why? I thought it was because the Po traveled rather quickly through his system that it was harder to determine exactly what the poison was.”
It is because polonium is an alpha emitter. Most other radioactive materials that emit alpha rays also emit gamma. Americium and cesium are examples. I believe polonium is pretty much the ONLY toxic material with a half-life of a useful length that emits only alpha rays. Alpha rays are harder to detect. Air stops them.
They checked for radioactivity and found nothing, because they were checking for gamma only. It wasn’t until the nuclear people also checked for alpha that they found it.
Thallium symptoms would be similar and apparently they did detect a small amount in him.
Polonium has a “biological” half-life (as opposed to a radiological half-life) of about 45 days. That means every 45 days, the radioactivity in the body is cut in half. This is through both elimination by the body and radiological decay of the polonium into lead.
“was he the mystery man who went to Hamburg with Kovton?”
The Germans haven’t said.
Enlightened, great Pacepa article in NRO. Thanks.
“For all those looking for a money trail for the smuggling ring, I suggest they show the money trail for th assassins. If Lugovoi and/or Kovtun were the assassins, they should be recently wealthier!”
AJ, they are. Just a few years ago, Lugovoi was in prison. Now he’s a rich man. Kovtun is his partner — in some strange intermix of beverage manufacturing and security services that no one can seem to explain sufficiently.
As I recall people can track the ownership of the beverage company but not the security company.
Yes, Pershin is a big company, the largest beverage manufacturer in Russia I believe, but Lugovoi doesn’t own it — even though it’s been reported that he does.
“Vyacheslav Sokolenko also says he was not at the bar with Lukovoi and Kovtun at the Millenium. ”
Where did you see that, CP? In the versions I’ve read, he said he came in later, but that he was there in the Pine Bar, after a sight-seeing trip.
“why did Zakazev blab about the Moslem conversion and the Chechens declare him a martyr almost the minute he died?”
Lizarde, just my opinion, but I think he wanted a group to remember him and avange his death. I just hope he didn’t mean with a suitcase bomb…
Reported by Reuters:
“Sokolenko accompanied Lugovoy on the trip to London at the start of November, though he says he was not present when the meeting with Litvinenko took place.”
A piece attributed to AP reports:
“Another Russian, security firm head Vyacheslav Sokolenko, has said he was at the hotel but did not participate in the meeting.”
BBC reports:
“Vyacheslav Sokolenko – an ex-KGB officer who currently heads a security firm – denies claims that he was the “third man” at the Millennium Mayfair Hotel meeting on 1 November.
However, he admits that he was staying at the hotel at the time. “