Dec 07 2006
Millenium Hotel Now The Poison Site, Smuggling Theory Expands
First off, another one of my predictions I made which I said would come true if this was a smuggling effort came true. I predicted back on December 5th that if this was a smuggling effort we would find Polonium traces at hotels that lined up with the trips of Lugovoi on Oct 15th, Oct 25th and Nov 1st because these were trips where Litvinenko met Lugovoi (as if to check on the status of some effort). That has now come true:
Traces of polonium-210 has been found at Parkes Hotel, Mayfair, it was confirmed last night. It means that radiation has been found at all three hotels where Mr Lugovoy had stayed since flying to London on October 16. The Parkes was the first he stayed at.
The radioactive isotope has also been found at Risc Management, a security firm in Cavendish Place, visited by Litvinenko with Mr Lugovoy and Mr Kovtun on October 17.
Back on December 1st I said if this was a smuggling ring that was exposed by an accident one of the Russians with Lugovoi (who would be coordinating the smuggling, not handling the material himself) would fall ill. Obviously that happened today as well. I am now ready to be proven wrong, if it all possible. If there were three rounds of Polonium 210 shipments, and Litvinenko was only poisoned as one of these shipments came through, how much Polonium is still out there?
The UK media are chasing their conspiracy spinning tails on the Litvinenko incident, but finally they may be seeing the light. As I proposed here, and in numerous other posts, I think the second major contamination site at the Millenium Hotel at Grosvenor’s Square is where the poisining of Litvinenko took place. I think there is a case to be made that Litvinenko met twice with Lugovoi and Kovtun (two Russian “business associates” of Litvinenko and Berezovsky): once in the morning or mid-day before the Scaramella meeting, and then again after the meeting in the early evening. Reporting keeps getting conflicting inputs because the idea of two meetings in one day has not been widely contemplated. In any event, the Times UK is now moving the site of the major poisoning event to the Millenium Hotel:
All seven bar staff working at the Pine Bar in the Millennium Hotel that night have tested positive for polonium-210, the radioactive isotope that killed Litvinenko. Health authorities are trying urgently to contact the 250 customers using the busy bar on November 1.
The Pine Bar is a popular haunt for businessmen and foreign guests at the five-star hotel in Grosvenor Square. Many of those overseas travellers have returned home after being told they were at no risk.
Health experts said they were surprised to find that the levels of radiation found in the seven bar staff approached that found in Litvinenko’s wife, Marina.
As I mentioned in this previous post the contamination level can be used to derive how close the person was to ground zero event (when the major contamination happened that poisoned Litvinenko). Litvinenko was at ground zero (obviously) and the closest one since had the highest dose (he fell ill first and died first). The second closest to ground zero may be Kuvton, who seems to have fallen ill and could be on his way to dying. The third known contamination is Scaramella – who is a second tier vector having been contaminated by Litvinenko at his Sushi Bar meeting. No other restaurant staff were contaminated at that location. The next closest contaminated people are the 7 staff members at the Millenium Pine Bar and Litvinenko’s wife. They seem to be like Scaramella in that they ran into a prime vector (Litvinenko or Kovtun) who was at ground zero, but far enough away in time that whatever contamination was on the vector had dissipated by some means or another so that they received less of a dose than Scaramella.
As distance, or time, or some other intervening vector creates distance from ground zero and the two prime vectors we know of (Litvinenko and Kovtun) the risk to people drops off. What is not clear is whether there are any more prime vectors who were at ground zero. Was Lugovoi? We should know soon because they should be getting ill pretty soon.
But someone is really stringing the media along here:
Michael Clark, of the agency’s radiation protection division, said last night that it was possible that Litvinenko was poisoned by a contaminated cigarette or drink.
A minute quantity of polonium-210 placed in Litvinenko’s glass would explain how he ingested the radioactive poison that led to his agonising death three weeks later.
The vapour that evaporated from the drink would have been inhaled by anyone in the area, with a greater concentration for his Russian companions and staff, who would have been in the bar much longer.
Litvinenko did not have a minute quantity of Polonium-210 by toxic standards. He ingested 50-100 times the lethal dose, which represented 30 million euros worth of Polonium-210 (at its peak purity – assuming minimal decay time since production). The ‘vapors’ do not explain how Scaramella received 5 times the lethal dose, and it number three on our dose chart (Kovtun looks to be number two and I would guess that if he is truly as ill as people say he could be at 10-20 times the lethal dose). The other problem we have is there could have been a build up over many exposures in Litvinenko or Kovtun over the three week period in questions. It is possibly the cumulative dose is the result of a number of smaller exposures. But this theory being put out to the UK Times seems a very strained. My theory holds up better, which entails an early meeting in a hotel room which is the true ground zero:
Investigators believe the poison cocktail was likely to have been manufactured in a guest room at the hotel, a short walk away from the US Embassy. Significant traces of polonium-210 were found in a fourth-floor room, which was occupied by a visiting Russian.Police believe that the killer may have stalked Litvinenko in London that day and had first tried to poison the ex-KGB colonel in a sushi bar. That failed but the poisoner left ample traces of the deadly radioactive isotope in the Piccadilly restaurant. Traces were also found on an Italian academic, Mario Scaramella, who was in the Itsu sushi bar. Toxicologists found polonium-210 in every place that Litvinenko visited after his drink at the hotel. It was not until he arrived home two hours later that he was violently ill.
This theory is pretty lame (except the fact there was ‘a spill’ of what must have been a Polonium-210 acid suspension in the hotel room) because it proposes the assassin had no clear opportunities to get Litvinenko in an open area like a street, or had to trail him and get the job done that one day. The amount of Polonium available was enough to kill Litvinenko 50-100 times over. An assassin could have trailed at his liesure, leaving a drop in a drink while passing by and slowly building up the toxicity of the Polonium-210 in Litvinenko. If an assassin selected Polonium-210 it is assumed they took the time to study how it could be administered covertly.
Update: Larisa Alexandrovna has posted something she says will make me very happy – so I thought I would share it with everyone.
So glad to hear finally the news about the Parkes Hotel – I believe however that the current Russian K sick guy (forget spelling) was not at one of those meetings – I think the one on the 16th – he was at two of the three in any case. Interesting is that Lugovoi is not apparantly as sick as the other two meaning??? who knows what. Cumulative doses is a very good point and probably likely – somehow Lugovoi did not get as much all at once but over time for sure he will die from this unless he was wearing a space suit which no one has reported.
I think this a case of smugling gone bad because the receiving party of the polonium in the UK were ignorant in the handling of radioactive material. Litvinenko pointed to Putin to throw off investigators. The UK is saying a cigarette was the poisoning agent because if they tell the people that this was a radiation bomb in the making there will be mass hysteria. This is confirmed by the highest police agencies being involved in the UK as well as CIA,FBI and many others we probably don’t know about.
For a long time they have been warning about non-arab looking muslim terrorists that would attack instead of their regulars which you can spot easy.The regular Pakistani British terrorist are too obvious and that’s why all their plans have been neutralized. Plus the eastern terrorists have received a lot of help from alqueda types. Maybe it was their time to prove they can contribute to the islamic agenda of destroying the west.
Forgot to add – I think the reason Kovtov (sp?) is not under suspicion is because he was NOT at one of those three meetings 16, 25 and 1st. This may not be correct thinking on the part of police (he could still be heavily involved I mean) but it is nevertheless the reason they are still casting suspicion on Luguvoi and not on Kovtov. Kovtov was a friend of Luguvoi since they were teenagers – they often went places together. They were in business together. I am wondering if the smuggling took place somehow in connection with the drink factory that Lugovoi allegedly owns part or all of. See the Axis article on him. The idea that LUgovoi would kill Kovtov is probably ludicrous pointing again to the accident theory.
If the smuggling scenario is correct, it would seem like a truly remarkable coincidence that Scaramella, armed with a death list, would meet up with Litvinenko on the very same day that he was poisoned in a Po-210 transfer operation.
Considering how unlikely this is, it follows that Scaramella is probably lying and is likely to be a smuggler himself, a mercenary. He gave Litvinenko the radioactive material, and he passed it on to Lugovoi et al, who may or may not have had additional material. Perhaps the container was (purposefully or not) compromised when in Scaramella’s possession, or perhaps he has later ingested a small amount to divert attention from the activity at the Milennium hotel.
my second post eaten: was saying that Kovtov (sp?) was only at two of the three meetings which is why police are not suspecting him (they are probaby wrong on this) A newspaper account somewhere tells which meetings Kovtov attended and I think he was not there the 25th – somebody check I had too much wine at dinner.
So we now have proof that Lugovoi was contaminated on the earliest trip we know of. This is about 2 weeks before Litvinenko became ill.
Some basic parts of the assassination theory aren’t making any sense. Like:
If you have a surveillance team in place and you are waiting for the right moment to drop the poison into place, why do you keep bringing the poison into the country and taking it back out? What if a perfect moment happened and Lugovoi is in Russia? In other words, it makes better sense that Lugovoi was carrying polonium on each trip as a smuggler would than he is carrying this poison around with him waiting for the perfect opportunity to use it on Litvinenko because that might happen when he isn’t there. It would make better sense for the assassin to be a third party who is there with the poison waiting for the surveillance team to tell him to go ahead and do the deed.
If he isn’t smuggling, why is Lugovoi contaminated in each trip in October instead of on only one?
Don’t assume physical distance relates to dosage. If you are talking about crystals or powder, one person might get a larger particle on them than another does. Or one person might accidently shed a particle into their food or someone elses food or drink.
Don’t assume all the contamination happened at one time. As contaminated as Lugovoi was, the others could have been contaminated too. You find 5 contaminated hotel rooms … were all three staying in the same hotel? That might account for three spots right there if they are all contaminated.
How come nobody is talking about the third guy?
Mr Litvinenko’s father, Walter, and 12-year-old son, Anatole – had also tested positive.
Independent UK
This stuff spreads as bad as the common cold virus
This theory in tonight’s Times is ludicrous:
Investigators believe the poison cocktail was likely to have been manufactured in a guest room at the hotel, a short walk away from the US Embassy. Significant traces of polonium-210 were found in a fourth-floor room, which was occupied by a visiting Russian.Police believe that the killer may have stalked Litvinenko in London that day and had first tried to poison the ex-KGB colonel in a sushi bar. That failed but the poisoner left ample traces of the deadly radioactive isotope in the Piccadilly restaurant. Traces were also found on an Italian academic,
Right, all that that points to the possibility that Litvinenko might have been contaminated more than once over a long period of time. He would have had only a couple of hours to contaminate his father. The time from when he was brought home till the time he went to the hospital would have been the only time available to contaminate his father and it seems that ANYONE associated with him no matter how briefly is contaminated.
Long term chronic contamination consistant with smuggling is indicated again.
The Third guy CP was only on the third trip I think
What we need to know is WHO had the 5 hotel rooms Oct 16 and WHO stayed in room 441 at the Millenium
“This theory in tonight’s Times is ludicrous”
Heh, yeah …
(at the sushi bar)
Hello, are you Mr. Litvinenko?
Yes.
Would you please drink this, sir?
No.
Darn.
(at the hotel bar)
Hello, sir, Mr. Litvinenko, right?
Yes, say, didn’t I meet you earlier today?
Yes, you did. Would you drink this, please?
Why certainly! (gulp)
Somehow I don’t think so.
I don’t think we know that Walter, his father, was at home with Litvinenko in the couple of hours before he went to the hospital – he could have been contaminated earlier by other contact with Litvinenko – the point is it seems easy to contaminate somebody at least with low levels of the stuff. I feel sorry for the hospital staff at the first hospital. We haven’t heard a peep about the condition of Boris and Goldfarb (who has refused to be tested)
I still think that “significant traces” in the hotel room means small amount at high specific activity, not a major spill.
Interesting about the vapour from a dosed beverage being inhaled, maybe vapour from Sasha’s breathing after ingesting a large amount of Po could have contaminated Scaramella, Kovtun, and the bar staff. Amazing if so. Sure would like to know if anyone is contaminated in BorisB-land.
Still need to know who Sasha met with prior to the sushi.
The notion that someone mixes a cocktail and attempts to deliver it at the sushi bar but fails but then tries again at the bar doesn’t make sense because of the number of people and places contaminated. That person must have been carrying that cocktail around and spilling it all over the place (here, let me freshen that up for ya). It is comedy. Not likely to have really happened.
Where did the polonium come from, who has access to it, how much of it is there. Those are, I think, the important questions because I don’t want it showing up in my kids lemonade.
AJ – A smuggling theory can work for the assasination theory and for the black market theory. Obviously someone smuggled illegally obtained PO210 from Moscow to London.
This is where we take different paths – I say it was used for assasination of a critic based on past history of Russia’s fondness for poison pills.
You think it was a Terrorist Plot, hatched by Litvinenko et al, linked to Chechnian radicals, for a possible coup against the Kremlin? And you don’t think for a minute if the Kremlin got wind of it they would try and stop it? And assasinate the plotters?
Any way you look at it – Litvinenko was assasinated. Was it state sanctioned or not? We will probably never know.
Jerry every indication is that the three/four Russians met prior to sushi in the missing hours between 1 and 3.
“Interesting about the vapour from a dosed beverage being inhaled, maybe vapour from Sasha’s breathing after ingesting a large amount of Po could have contaminated Scaramella”
Scotland Yard has already said that Scaramella’s dose was more than could have been obtained through casual contact or inhalation.
I can’t believe that the Times thinks anyone with a modicum of intelligence and some knowledge of the facts of the case would buy this crap….opium for the masses
the vapors theory is replacing the sweat theory – both bs IMO